This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
There are 137 pitchers ranked in the top 400, which breaks down to 34.3 percent. There are 30 pitchers in the top 100. I know there are many dynasty-league players who largely ignore pitching prospects, but I believe this is a mistake. They are obviously much riskier than hitting prospects of the same caliber. For instance, I could argue that Forrest Whitley is the pitching equivalent to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., yet Whitley is ranked No. 7 overall, while Vlad has the top spot. This is the pitching prospect tax. It would be silly to rank Whitley ahead of a player like Eloy Jimenez, because all Whitley needs to do is require Tommy John surgery at some point in the next couple years and Jimenez will easily outearn him over a five-year period. But I believe it would be similarly foolish to rank Whitley outside of the top 10 just because he is a pitcher. At some point, the reward is worth the risk, and that same logic applies to every pitching prospect ranked in the top 400.
I am always going to chase upside in pitching prospects, because there really is no such thing as a pitching prospect with a high floor. Obviously this doesn't mean that the pitchers are all ranked from most upside to least upside, but you can get a general sense for how high I think a pitcher's ceiling is based on where they are ranked and how far away they are from the
There are 137 pitchers ranked in the top 400, which breaks down to 34.3 percent. There are 30 pitchers in the top 100. I know there are many dynasty-league players who largely ignore pitching prospects, but I believe this is a mistake. They are obviously much riskier than hitting prospects of the same caliber. For instance, I could argue that Forrest Whitley is the pitching equivalent to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., yet Whitley is ranked No. 7 overall, while Vlad has the top spot. This is the pitching prospect tax. It would be silly to rank Whitley ahead of a player like Eloy Jimenez, because all Whitley needs to do is require Tommy John surgery at some point in the next couple years and Jimenez will easily outearn him over a five-year period. But I believe it would be similarly foolish to rank Whitley outside of the top 10 just because he is a pitcher. At some point, the reward is worth the risk, and that same logic applies to every pitching prospect ranked in the top 400.
I am always going to chase upside in pitching prospects, because there really is no such thing as a pitching prospect with a high floor. Obviously this doesn't mean that the pitchers are all ranked from most upside to least upside, but you can get a general sense for how high I think a pitcher's ceiling is based on where they are ranked and how far away they are from the majors. There are some notable exceptions to this. Alex Reyes has an undeniably high ceiling, but he has enough workload/injury risk that I have him ranked lower than his talent and proximity to the big leagues would otherwise suggest. There are other examples (Jon Duplantier and Justus Sheffield come to mind) where the pitcher technically has a very high ceiling, but there is something in the profile, whether it be command, lack of a quality third pitch or durability issues, that leads me to believe the pitcher would be best suited for a high-leverage relief role long term.
Here are the 2019 pitching prospect tiers:
TIER ONE
1. Forrest Whitley, Astros
He will be an ace if he stays relatively healthy. Long term, he has the upside to someday be the first pitcher taken in redraft leagues.
TIER TWO
2. Jesus Luzardo, A's
He will eventually be a top-20 fantasy starter if he stays relatively healthy. I don't really see the upside for him to someday be a top-five starting pitcher, but that's no slight on Luzardo.
TIER THREE
3. Matt Manning, Tigers
4. A.J. Puk, A's
5. Brent Honeywell, Rays
6. Chris Paddack, Padres
7. Michael Kopech, White Sox
8. Mike Soroka, Braves
9. MacKenzie Gore, Padres
10. Casey Mize, Tigers
11. Alex Reyes, Cardinals
12. Dylan Cease, White Sox
13. Ian Anderson, Braves
14. DL Hall, Orioles
All of these guys have very real SP2 upside, and many have SP1 upside and are just too far away from the big leagues to be in a higher tier. Soroka and Reyes are the two toughest ranks, as we still don't know exactly how Soroka will bounce back from his shoulder scare, and we don't know how many innings Reyes will be able to shoulder on an annual basis. Look for one of Manning, Puk, Kopech, Gore, Mize, Anderson or Hall to enter 2020 as the game's top pitching prospect.
TIER FOUR
15. Yusei Kikuchi, Mariners
16. Touki Toussaint, Braves
17. Triston McKenzie, Indians
18. Sixto Sanchez, Marlins
19. Josh James, Astros
20. Luis Patino, Padres
21. Brendan McKay, Rays
22. Bryse Wilson, Braves
23. Nate Pearson, Blue Jays
24. Matthew Liberatore, Rays
25. Hunter Greene, Reds
26. Adrian Morejon, Padres
27. Kyle Wright, Braves
28. Logan Allen, Padres
29. Adonis Medina, Phillies
30. Mitch Keller, Pirates
31. Dustin May, Dodgers
32. Brusdar Graterol, Twins
This tier is a combination of high-risk/high-reward starters and potential No. 3 starters who are close to the majors. Kikuchi and Toussaint may both open in the big-league rotation and both have high ceilings, but Kikuchi's age and mileage work against him in a dynasty league, while Toussaint's range of outcomes is massive, depending on how much his command/control improves in the coming years. Sanchez, Patino, McKay, Pearson, Liberatore, Greene, Morejon, Medina, May and Graterol are all capable of significant upward momentum this season, while the rest of the players are here more for their proximity than their significantly high ceiling.
TIER FIVE
33. Joe Palumbo, Rangers
34. Clarke Schmidt, Yankees
35. J.B. Bukauskas, Astros
36. Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees
37. Luis Oviedo, Indians
38. Eric Pardinho, Blue Jays
39. Anderson Espinoza, Padres
40. Daniel Lynch, Royals
41. Andres Munoz, Padres
42. Corbin Martin, Astros
43. Deivi Garcia, Yankees
This is a fun tier because many of the pitchers here are easy to acquire in a dynasty league despite having SP2 or better upside. With Palumbo, Schmidt and Espinoza, Tommy John surgery recently erased some developmental time, yet they have demonstrated qualities that could allow them to shoot up lists in their first full season back. Bukauskas, Loaisiga and Garcia have bullpen risk, but significant upside if they start. Oviedo, Pardinho and Lynch have as much upside as anyone in this tier, but have minimal experience against full-season hitters. Munoz is the only pitcher in these tiers who is already working as a full-time reliever. He has No. 1 closer upside. Martin is sort of the odd duck here, as he is more of a No. 3 starter type with few risk factors apart from the fact he is a pitching prospect.
TIER SIX
44. Jon Duplantier, Diamondbacks
45. Justin Dunn, Mariners
46. Justus Sheffield, Mariners
47. Tony Santillan, Reds
48. Francisco Morales, Phillies
49. Ethan Hankins, Indians
50. Spencer Howard, Phillies
51. Lenny Torres Jr., Indians
52. Cole Winn, Rangers
The top four guys here could pitch in the big leagues this year, but I think they will be WHIP risks right away. Those four could excel as relievers, but will be given a long leash as starters on rebuilding clubs, and in Santillan's case, on a club that hopes to win this year but is short on quality starting pitchers. The last five have very, very high ceilings and are very, very risky. You know what they say about scared money...
Honorable Mentions: Griffin Canning (LAA), Tyler Ivey (HOU), Shane Baz (TB), Grayson Rodriguez (BAL), Hans Crouse (TEX), Carlos Vargas (CLE), Luiz Gohara (ATL), Roansy Contreras (NYY), Ryan Weathers (SD), Jackson Kowar (KC), Brady Singer (KC), Tony Gonsolin (LAD), Jordan Balazovic (MIN), David Peterson (NYM), Lewis Thorpe (MIN), Brock Burke (TEX), Zack Brown (MIL), Joey Wentz (ATL), Dennis Santana (LAD), Franklin Perez (DET), Sean Reid-Foley (TOR), Taylor Widener (ARI), Dane Dunning (CWS), Adam Kloffenstein (TOR), Osiel Rodriguez (NYY), Mason Denaburg (WAS), Cole Ragans (TEX), Albert Abreu (NYY), Brailyn Marquez (CHC), Darwinzon Hernandez (BOS), Luis Medina (NYY), Yefri Del Rosario (KC), Simeon Woods-Richardson (NYM), Nick Neidert (MIA)
