DFS Baseball 101: Identifying Cash-Game Hitters

Written by

Updated on May 19, 2017 11:50AM EST

I'm back after taking last week off. I had Rich Hill's blister problems from hitting the keyboard too fast. Just kidding, but that's how much of a joke Hill's issues have been. The last two weeks, the No. 1 thing I keep getting asked about is the "research process." I touched on the pitching side earlier this season, so now it is time to start looking at the hitters.

For the purpose of this article the data is taken from FanDuel through May 15.

When researching for cash games, there are some rules to follow. I wrote about them last year in an article titled "Building a System for Cash Games," which details a 20-rule system that you can use. While not much has changed in my approach from that article, the players who qualify for the best cash games play certainly do.

I'm going to run down each position and identify the best cash-game players on FanDuel this season. I look at points per game, percentage of time hitting value (in this case 3.5 x or higher) and standard deviation. Standard deviation is calculated through a formula in Excel that I apply to each player when looking at their game logs.

Because baseball is a highly variant outcome, the value/multiplier part of this process can be a little tricky. You can have the best hitters getting a range of 0-35 points in a given night.

Hitters hit 3.5x around 35 percent of the time overall, so it makes you really look at players less than $5,000 in cash games. When you take a $5,000 hitter in a cash game, you need to get a home run or it did not pay off. That is a difficult thing to project when you are talking about four to five at bats in a given night.

CATCHER

I have ALWAYS preached about finding value at catcher in DFS, and this chart shows why. Outside of Brian McCann, every catcher on this list has an average salary of less than $2,600.

PLAYER	PCT	HIT COUNT	TOTAL COUNT	PPG	STN DEV	VALUE	AVG SALARY
Alex Avila	53	8	15	12.07	11.63	5.01	$2,567
Manny Pina	50	9	18	10.22	10.07	4.28	$2,444
Jett Bandy	38	8	21	10.37	10.04	4.13	$2,590
James McCann	36	9	25	9.28	11.08	4.02	$2,320
Tyler Flowers	40	8	20	9.69	9.29	3.85	$2,590
Caleb Joseph	41	7	17	8.62	10.98	3.85	$2,247
Cameron Rupp	50	12	24	9.40	7.54	3.82	$2,446
Brian McCann	46	12	26	11.10	9.94	3.81	$2,927

FIRST BASE

Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto (and Freddie Freeman before he got hurt) are cornerstones of any cash game lineup depending on their opposing pitcher handedness and ballpark. Normally I would not spend down at first base, but Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison and Marwin Gonzalez have provided incredible value.

PLAYER	PCT	HIT COUNT	TOTAL COUNT	PPG	STN DEV	VALUE	AVG SALARY
Ryan Zimmerman	60	18	30	17.63	12.46	5.23	$3,460
Eric Thames	53	18	34	16.38	12.96	4.99	$3,591
Freddie Freeman	50	18	36	16.00	13.56	3.90	$4,119
Matt Carpenter	45	9	20	15.95	12.07	4.30	$3,750
Paul Goldschmidt	46	18	39	15.72	12.26	3.55	$4,462
Joey Votto	43	16	37	14.05	10.68	3.44	$4,092
Marwin Gonzalez	48	11	23	13.78	13.02	5.52	$2,630
Yonder Alonso	52	16	31	13.55	12.38	4.87	$2,816
Mark Reynolds	44	16	36	13.13	11.46	3.78	$3,572
Logan Morrison	53	17	32	12.04	11.41	4.69	$2,603

SECOND BASE

Best cash game player this season? Jed Lowrie. Yep. Jed Lowrie. When you factor in that FanDuel just refused to move his salary up at all for a long time and he never has monster games, you are getting a player at $2,500 or less whom you can bank at least 8-10 points per game at a 56 percent clip.

PLAYER	PCT	HIT COUNT	TOTAL COUNT	PPG	STN DEV	VALUE	AVG SALARY
Cesar Hernandez	48	16	33	12.42	9.14	4.12	$3,109
Starlin Castro	52	17	33	12.42	10.70	4.26	$2,958
Jonathan Villar	43	15	35	10.75	10.73	3.26	$3,291
Josh Harrison	42	10	24	10.70	9.67	3.77	$2,846
Kolten Wong	41	12	29	10.27	7.89	3.61	$2,897
Javier Baez	44	11	25	9.96	11.76	3.86	$2,692
Ben Zobrist	40	10	25	9.60	8.34	3.27	$3,024
Jed Lowrie	56	20	36	9.34	8.36	4.08	$2,303
Carlos Sanchez	47	9	19	9.28	8.60	4.03	$2,326

THIRD BASE

Much like first base, you want to spend up at the hot corner. A good barometer is between $3,500-$4,000. I never would have thought Jedd Gyorko would profile as a cash game player, but his low average salary makes him attractive.

PLAYER	PCT	HIT COUNT	TOTAL COUNT	PPG	STN DEV	VALUE	AVG SALARY
Miguel Sano	41	14	34	14.63	12.12	4.32	$3,471
Jake Lamb	48	12	25	13.92	9.92	4.00	$3,556
Kris Bryant	46	16	35	13.07	10.66	3.08	$4,291
Jedd Gyorko	54	14	26	12.79	11.54	4.39	$2,923
Travis Shaw	46	16	35	12.47	11.77	3.82	$3,374
Eugenio Suarez	41	14	34	12.37	11.61	3.78	$3,362
Joey Gallo	43	15	35	12.15	12.07	3.81	$3,229
Chase Headley	45	14	31	10.92	8.12	3.59	$3,171
Yangervis Solarte	42	11	26	9.51	8.44	3.35	$2,877
Christian Arroyo	50	9	18	9.19	7.44	3.86	$2,411

SHORTSTOP

Some big names are left off this list like Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor. Bogaerts just missed, but the reason you really want to shy away from these guys in cash is the salary and you need their upside in a tournament more. Segura is the only expensive shortstop worth looking at in cash, with Cozart seeing a nice lineup spot bump recently.

PLAYER	PCT	HIT COUNT	TOTAL COUNT	PPG	STN DEV	VALUE	AVG SALARY
Jean Segura	44	12	27	13.31	10.02	3.71	$3,641
Taylor Motter	42	8	19	12.46	11.85	4.46	$2,895
Zack Cozart	48	15	31	12.07	8.34	3.98	$3,071
Chris Owings	39	13	33	12.06	12.08	4.19	$3,030
Elvis Andrus	39	15	38	10.61	9.60	3.62	$2,984
Eduardo Escobar	41	7	17	10.53	12.08	4.15	$2,565
Andrew Romine	59	10	17	9.72	9.84	4.64	$2,124
Brandon Crawford	42	10	24	8.96	7.83	3.33	$2,858
Miguel Rojas	47	8	17	8.89	8.90	3.81	$2,412
Jorge Polanco	44	14	32	8.49	6.46	3.27	$2,606

OUTFIELD

If you decide to take Bryce Harper or Mike Trout in cash, it means you will have to sacrifice at first baseman. The only time it would not be an issue is when there are no high-priced pitchers that day and you go with a mid-tier priced option. In that case, you can probably spend up at first base and one of your outfield spots.

Aaron Hicks has been good, but I have no idea he's been THAT good. I gave the honor of best cash game player to Jed Lowrie, but Hicks is right there too with a 78 percent hit rate and 6.49x value this season.

PLAYER	PCT	HIT COUNT	TOTAL COUNT	PPG	STN DEV	VALUE	AVG SALARY
Bryce Harper	50	16	32	18.66	15.32	3.84	$4,875
Aaron Hicks	78	14	18	18.14	13.29	6.49	$2,861
Aaron Judge	48	15	31	16.92	15.25	5.30	$3,326
Aaron Altherr	63	12	19	16.71	12.17	5.43	$3,053
Mike Trout	44	16	36	15.85	9.34	3.21	$4,969
Michael Conforto	46	12	26	15.38	14.97	4.59	$3,485
Mitch Haniger	71	15	21	15.29	10.35	6.55	$2,414
Brett Gardner	44	12	27	13.86	13.83	4.47	$3,089
Charlie Blackmon	41	15	37	12.98	10.73	3.11	$4,143
Nelson Cruz	42	15	36	12.96	10.90	3.21	$4,003
Ben Gamel	53	9	17	12.87	13.66	5.18	$2,635
Matt Holliday	50	13	26	12.75	12.18	4.23	$3,046
Hernan Perez	46	12	26	12.69	13.85	4.81	$2,696
Billy Hamilton	44	15	34	12.60	11.75	3.72	$3,418
Marcell Ozuna	43	16	37	12.58	12.99	3.78	$3,449
A.J. Pollock	42	14	33	12.51	10.07	3.28	$3,833
Justin Upton	42	14	33	12.07	10.24	3.59	$3,382
Seth Smith	53	10	19	12.05	10.31	4.52	$2,716
Yasmany Tomas	47	14	30	11.96	11.63	3.71	$3,297
Lonnie Chisenhall	44	8	18	11.67	11.36	4.16	$2,928
Andrew Benintendi	44	16	36	11.17	10.39	3.21	$3,586
Jayson Werth	45	14	31	11.15	11.44	3.59	$3,119
Jacoby Ellsbury	43	12	28	11.04	9.07	3.41	$3,236
Kevin Pillar	42	16	38	10.99	10.11	3.93	$2,787
Ender Inciarte	42	15	36	10.93	10.40	3.69	$3,044
Domingo Santana	43	13	30	10.65	9.67	3.53	$3,073
Josh Reddick	40	12	30	10.18	10.41	3.66	$2,797
Chris Young	50	10	20	9.43	9.34	3.75	$2,525

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.