Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The dog days of August are upon us.  September call-ups are still a few weeks away, and it is easy to get complacent.  Luis Robert is hitting just .196 over his last 10 games at Triple-A in the White Sox organization.  Jo Adell has been equally abysmal at Triple-A for the Angels, hitting only .206 with 17 strikeouts in his last 10 contests.  Even Wander Franco hasn't recorded a home run or steal over the last 10 outings for High-A Charlotte.

Not every phenom is feeling the heat, though.  Gavin Lux continues to rake at Triple-A Oklahoma City, leaving Dodgers fans wondering if he will force the organization's hand even before September hits.  Kyle Tucker is rounding back into shape, batting .333 with three home runs, 11 RBI and two steals in his last 10 games for Triple-A Round Rock.  And Carter Kieboom continues to make a bid to rejoin the Nationals with a stellar recent stretch at Triple-A Fresno.

Who else is hot, and who's not?  Let's take a deeper dive into the prospect landscape in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Abraham Toro, 3B, HOU – Toro continues to shine as one of the breakthrough prospects of the 2019 campaign.  A promotion to Triple-A has not slowed him down, as he's hitting a blistering .469 with seven RBI through eight games for Triple-A Round Rock.  The Astros recently jettisoned a plethora of prospects in the above-mentioned Zack Greinke deal, leaving Toro as the top hitting prospect not named Kyle Tucker in the organization.  The only issue for the 22-year old will be that he is blocked by a bevy of bats at the MLB level, whether in the infield, outfield or DH.  Still, it's a good problem to have for the Astros. And if Toro keeps raking, the Astros will have no choice but to find a spot for him as early as 2020.

Joe Ryan, P, TB – Ryan is a strike-thrower who pitched his senior season of college at Division II Cal State Stanislaus before being drafted by the Rays in the seventh round of the 2018 draft.  Ryan has found little resistance since becoming a professional, whiffing batters at an extremely high rate while pounding the strike zone.  The polished 23-year old made easy work of Low-A to begin the season, posting a 2.93 ERA and 47:11 K:BB in just 27.2 innings.  After only six starts, he was promoted to High-A, where he has improved with a 1.42 ERA and 112:12 K:BB through 82.2 innings with opposing batters hitting a putrid .161 against.  Ryan's last start was perhaps his best as a professional, tossing seven scoreless innings Wednesday and allowing just one hit, walking zero batters while fanning 13.  Double-A will be his bigger test, who is a tad old for this level.  Still, Ryan has been incredibly productive and efficient thus far.

Kristian Robinson, OF, ARI – Robinson's dismantling of the Short Season Northwest League was a sight to behold, as the Bahamian sensation hit .319, clubbed nine home runs and swiped 14 bags in 44 games.  He parlayed that destruction into a debut at Low-A at just 18.  The Diamondbacks are in full rebuilding mode following the trade of Zack Greinke, and Robinson represents the crown jewel of the minor league system.  He won't make his big-league debut for a couple of years, but is an other-worldly talent worth monitoring.

Trey Harris, OF, ATL – Harris is a feel-good story, who waited until the 32nd round in 2018 before being drafted.  All he has done since entering the minors is hit, and the 23-year old has already advanced three levels in 2019, currently at Double-A Mississippi.  The Georgia native has combined to bat .337/.406/.524 with 13 home runs, 69 RBI and seven steals in 107 games between Low-A, High-A and Double-A.  Though his defense remains a work in progress, Harris boasts a stellar hit tool, a bit more power than expected, and is more athletic than anticipated.  He looks like a steal for the hometown Braves, who already possess more highly touted outfielders Drew Waters and Cristian Pache (more on him below) ahead of him at Triple-A.

CHECK STATUS

Nick Nelson, P, NYY – The Yankees continue to develop high-upside arms.  Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil have been the most prominent names mentioned in 2019 as risers, but Nelson has also displayed strikeout stuff by fanning 83 batters in 65 innings at Double-A en route to a 2.35 ERA.  His last start was a dandy, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings, walking one batter while striking out 11.  In fact, Nelson has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last seven outings.  The one knock on him in the past has been wildness, as he walked 63 batters in 121.2 innings last season and has issued 35 free passes in those 65 innings at Double-A.  It remains to be seen if those additional walks will come back to haunt him at the higher levels.  However, Nelson has shown the ability to miss bats and keep the ball in the park.  The 2016 fourth-round pick could be living up to his potential as long as he continues to fine-tune his control.

Jorge Guzman, P, MIA – Guzman tossed six no-hit innings Friday at Double-A Jacksonville, walking four batters while fanning 13.  It was the second-straight start he failed to allow a single earned run, and the third time in five outings.  The key prospect in the Giancarlo Stanton deal with the Yankees, Guzman boasts a blazing fastball and the ability to miss bats, but has been bedeviled by control/command issues during his time in the minors.  He has issued 64 walks in back-to-back seasons, though his walk rate has decreased this year compared to 2018.  Still, the additional base runners will likely come back to haunt Guzman at the higher levels, and he could even end up in the bullpen.  The Marlins will keep him in the rotation for now, as the 23-year old holds plenty of promise.

Omar Estevez, 2B, LAD – Estevez has been on a tear for Double-A Tulsa of late, batting .389 with three home runs and six RBI over his last 10 games.  The power surge is particularly nice to see, as he only managed two home runs over the first 50-plus games of the season prior to this outburst.  Estevez is also one of the youngest players in the league at just 21, and has found little difficulty in making consistent contact by batting .308/.381/.445 through 63 games at this level.  He did collect 15 home runs and 84 RBI in 2018, so the return of even some power is a welcome sign for his future prospects.

Tyler Freeman, SS, CLE – Freeman comes in as another prospect with some power who can really hit.  He just turned 20 in May, but is already raking at High-A by batting .335/.383/.438 through 43 games for Lynchburg.  The Indians are hoping that as the aggressive Freeman matures he will develop some additional pop.  Remember, Francisco Lindor never hit more than 11 home runs in any single minor-league season.  Freeman may not be Lindor, but it is appears he at the very least possesses the hit tool to succeed at the higher levels.

DOWNGRADE

Yerry Rodriguez, P, TEX – Rodriguez was having a dazzling first go-round in full-season ball before elbow issues cropped up, having posted a 2.08 ERA and 85:21 K:BB in 73.2 innings prior to injury while opposing batters hit a paltry .176 against.  The 21-year old has been shut down in hopes of avoiding Tommy John surgery, but that may ultimately be the necessary route.  Going under the knife would leave him looking at a 2021 return, a tough break for a phenom who could have been a fast riser in the Texas system.

Esteury Ruiz, 2B, SD – Ruiz has looked a tad disappointing in 2019, particularly when considering he is playing his games in the hitter-friendly California League.  He is slashing .239/.300/.357 through 98 games and continues to steal bases at an impressive rate by swiping 34 bags.  However, Ruiz's power has not progressed as the Padres had hoped, as he has only smacked six home runs at High-A after hitting 12 at Low-A a season ago.  Add in a current trip to the Injured List, and the 20-year old has seen his stock dip a bit this season.

Brent Rooker, OF, MIN – Rooker looked to be on the verge of a big-league promotion when he went down with what was labeled a groin contusion.  He's now missed nearly a month due to the injury, and it appears an appearance at the MLB level in 2019 could be in jeopardy.  Rooker was hitting .281/.398/.535, and had all but put to rest past concerns over his ability to make consistent contact.  Power has always served as his best asset, clubbing 14 dingers in 65 games prior to the injury.  Rooker has now missed significant time and, even in a playoff race, the Twinkies may be cautious with one of their better prospects.

Cristian Pache, OF, ATL – Pache remains a glove-first prospect, but has come a long ways in terms of his hitting, and is still just 20.  As such, this downgrade should be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, Pache floundered toward the end of his time at Double-A before being promoted, and has only registered five hits in 22 at-bats to begin his stint at Triple-A.  He may end up being a better real-life player than fantasy commodity, as he projects for about 10-12 home runs per season and about the same in terms of stolen bases.  Pache is a contact hitter, but hasn't hit above .285 at any level since 2016.  He's a solid prospect, but his impact in fantasy terms may be disappointing for being considered elite.