Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Since the 2020 major league season is still taking shape, there's no telling which minor leaguers could end up being valuable during a truncated season.  Will rosters be expanded?  What will be the makeup of a so-called "taxi squad"?  Will teams be more apt to go with youth or experience?  Will organizations choose more arms or position players?  Or will a universal DH make hitters a priority?  Some organizations may choose to place their top prospects on the expanded roster, while others may want to preserve health and arbitration clocks.  There are so many ways this could go logistically as well as strategically, and that doesn't even include the lack of sunflower seeds or high-fives.

In all seriousness, we understand the health, safety and well-being of the players, coaches, trainers and staff is paramount.  Let's hope the owners and players can agree on how to safely bring baseball back.

And as always, the barometer must go on.  Here are some more player profiles as we continue to dive into the deep recesses of the minor leagues.

UPGRADE

Connor Wong, C, BOS – The least heralded piece in the return for Mookie Betts and David Price, Wong had an excellent season between High-A and Double-A while still with the Dodgers organization.  He slashed .281/.336/.541 with 24 home runs, 82 RBI and 11 steals in 111 combined games.  Any notion that his stats were inflated by 71 games in the hitter-friendly California League should be dispelled, as his numbers were actually better in 40 games at Double-A.  The knock on Wong is that he strikes out a bit too much, and does not take many walks.  Surprisingly, though, he has still been able to maintain a decent average despite these supposed deficiencies.  He has plus power and enough speed to provide a few stolen bases.  Christian Vasquez had a breakout season in 2019, but many feel he is due for a regression.  The Sox signed Kevin Plawecki and Jonathan Lucroy for 2020, so it looks like Wong won't get a chance to strut his stuff for the big club until 2021 at the earliest.  That being said, Wong has performed rather well and yet under the radar since entering the minors as a third round pick in 2017, so he could be a sleeper prospect to watch.

Brenton Doyle, OF, COL – Doyle is a potential helium prospect in 2020, as he tormented the Pioneer League following being drafted in the fourth round last season.  The 22-year-old went to Division II Shepherd University, but that did not stop him from slashing .383/.477/.611 with eight home runs and 17 steals in 51 contests.  He will get downgraded because of level of competition, both at the collegiate and pro levels, but it is difficult to ignore the power/speed combination, eye at the dish as well as contact skills.  Doyle could be a fast mover up the charts in 2020, as he was invited to spring training and may not find much resistance until Double-A.

Jonathan Bowlan, P, KC – Bowlan often gets lost in the shuffle among the bevy of young arms in the Kansas City system, but he should be gaining more notoriety.  A big-bodied righty with three pitches, including a mid-90s heater, Bowlan showed excellent command in 2019 despite his large frame.  The 23-year-old from Memphis posted a 150:23 K:BB in 146 innings between Low-A and High-A.  He had a 3.14 ERA combined, though his ERA actually improved at the higher level.  Opposing batters hit just .227 against him.  Bowlan shared a pot in the rotation at High-A with Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic, and all three hurlers have the chance to strut their stuff at Double-A if the season resumes.

Shane McClanahan, P, TB – I still think pundits might be low on McClanahan, who had a rather sensational 2019 campaign, then wowed the Rays in spring training with a triple-digit heater from the left side.  He's more than just a flamethrower, though, as he has three workable off-speed pitches, and his command stood up in 2019.  Even with two bad starts near the end of the season at Double-A, McClanahan sported a 3.36 ERA and 154:45 K:BB in 120.2 innings across three levels.  He keeps the ball down, in the ballpark, and also has the ability to miss bats.  If he wasn't a prospect on the Rays, who use their pitchers in unique ways, perhaps McClanahan would be even more highly thought of.

CHECK STATUS

Braden Shewmake, SS, ATL – The Braves appear to be set up the middle, with Dansby Swanson having a resurgent 2019 campaign at shortstop and Ozzie Albies profiling as a future All-Star at second base.  Still, you can never have too much depth, and Shewmake found little resistance at Low-A following being drafted in the first round of last year's draft.  The polished collegian from Texas A&M slashed .318/.389.473 with three home runs and 11 steals in 51 games for Low-A Rome.  The Braves were so impressed that they gave Shewmake a taste of Double-A straight thereafter, though he played in just 14 games before the season concluded.  Shewmake has an advanced approach at the dish, can certainly handle the bat and also has above-average speed.  The one knock on him may be his power stroke, or lack thereof.  That may prevent him from being an upper-tier fantasy option up the middle.  Combine that with being blocked at the big-league level, and that's why expectations should be tempered just a bit.  Still, there's a lot to like about Shewmake, who depending on the circumstances could sniff the big leagues as early as next season.

Justin Williams, OF, STL – Dylan Carlson is the Cardinals outfield prospect to own, and a truncated season with expanded rosters should only further the notion that Carlson could be an impact player if the season does indeed happen.  However, Williams is also intriguing given his presence on the 40-man roster and the dearth of outfield options for the Cardinals.  St. Louis can pump up Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill all they want.  I am just not sure either player will be a reliable option.  Add in a possible universal DH for this season, and Williams could find himself with at-bats.  Williams spent a lot of time on the Injured List in 2019, but he shined at Triple-A when healthy.  In 36 games, Williams slashed a superb .353/.437/.608 with seven home runs and 26 RBI.  O'Neill, Bader and Lane Thomas are also all right-handed hitters, while Williams is a left-handed power bat.  As a result, Williams could find himself in the unique position of seeing at-bats at the big-league level in 2020, when under normal circumstances he may have been relegated to Triple-A.

Cody Bolton, P, PIT – Bolton is one of the few quality arms in a Pirates system largely bereft of pitching talent.  Bolton breezed through High-A to begin the 2019 campaign, posting a 1.61 ERA and 69:14 K:BB in 61.2 innings.  Batters hit just .174 against him.  A bump to Double-A proved much more difficult, though, and Bolton scuffled in nine starts at that level.  He allowed six home runs in those nine starts, while also walking 16 batters in just 40 innings.  Bolton did not have issues wildness in the minors up to that point, so it is a bit curious that he walked so many batters at Double-A.  Still, the sample size is small, and other than Mitch Keller and Quinn Priester, the Pirates have virtually no upper-echelon pitching talent on the horizon.  As a result, the Pirates remain high on Bolton, who still needs at least a year in the minors.

Dean Kremer, P, BAL – One of the slew of players acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, Kremer has averaged more than a strikeout per inning during his time in the minors.  He relies largely on a fastball/curveball/slider trio, but also has a changeup in his arsenal.  Kremer is 24, struggled in four starts at Triple-A in 2019, and does not appear to have the upside of a Grayson Rodriguez or a DL Hall.  That being said, he has the repertoire, command and ability to miss bats to become a reliable starter for the Orioles, and he could be ready as early as the end of this season.  A 14th-round pick in the 2016 draft, it is clear Kremer has already exceeded expectations.

DOWNGRADE

Freudis Nova, SS, HOU – Nova had a down year in 2019, his first taste of full-season ball.  After showing serious promise in the Gulf Coast League as an 18-year-old, he was only mediocre in 75 games at Low-A at 19.  Nova slashed .259/.301/.369 with three home runs, 29 RBI and 10 steals.  Nova fanned 68 times while drawing just 15 walks.  He still hasn't been able to translate his speed into consistently successful stolen base attempts, as he was caught seven times in 2019.  His home run numbers also dipped, though he did hit 20 doubles.  Now 20, Nova may have to repeat Low-A before continuing his rise through the ranks.  Nova has an intriguing power/speed combination with plenty of room to grow, but remains raw at this time, and is a ways away from making any sort of big league impact.

Joe Palumbo, P, TEX – Palumbo made a few starts in the big leagues last season, with disastrous results.  While we shouldn't put too much stock in such a small sample size, he pitches in a hitter-friendly home park and also struggled in spring training before the hiatus.  While he does have the benefit of not really being blocked either in the minors or the Majors, the 25-year-old southpaw has also never pitched more than 100 innings in any season since being drafted in 2013.  While the Long Island product has already exceeded expectations (he was a 30th round pick), there's a lot working against Palumbo at this time, even with the strikeout potential displayed.

Zack Collins, C/DH, CHW – Collins is 25 and played in 27 games in the big leagues last season, but is still technically considered a prospect.  However, he flopped in his brief time in the Majors, slashing .186/.307/.349 with three home runs and 39 strikeouts.  Collins has decent power and an excellent eye at the dish, but the White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal in the offseason to pair with James McCann.  As a result, Collins is left without a position, and certainly loses a lot of appeal if he has to be brought out from the catching position.  He had more starts at DH than at catcher in the big leagues.  There is also no guarantee he can hit for average.  As a result, despite his lofty draft status in 2016, Collins looks like a lackluster Designated Hitter at this time.

Franklin Perez, P, DET – The Tigers have plenty of elite young arms to get excited about, including but not limited to Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal.  Perez was highly thought of before the arrival of any of the above-referenced hurlers, but has barely seen the mound over the last two seasons.  Shoulder issues have prevented Perez from taking the mound, as he has pitched just 27.0 innings over those last two years.  Despite having never pitched above High-A, Perez is on the 40-man roster for the Tigers, and there has been talk of the 22-year-old righty being included on the taxi squad or expanded roster if the season starts.  Still, injury concerns along with the fact Perez has not even seen Double-A make this unlikely.  Even if he is included, he is more likely to serve as a reliever, opener or spot starter more than anything else.  Proving he can stay healthy would be the biggest task for Perez.  Anything else would be gravy.