Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

In the last Minor League Barometer of the season, we'll take a broader view of the 2024 prospect landscape. Which phenoms saw their stock rise the most? And who's struggled to live up to expectations? Once again, this list is certainly not meant to be exhaustive. We'll also try to avoid players who've already appeared in the big leagues or are currently there.

UPGRADE

Roman Anthony, OF, BOS – Fellow Red Sox organization-mate Kristian Campbell gets an honorable mention here, but Anthony has emerged as one of the top hitting prospects in all of baseball. At just 20, he's already playing at his fifth level in the last two years, which just happens to be Triple-A. After more than holding his own at Double-A to begin the season with 15 homers, 16 steals and 48 walks in 84 games, Anthony has arguably been even better at the new level batting .315 with three home runs and 10 RBI through 18 contests with nearly as many walks (10) as strikeouts (13). He offers the chance to hit for average, carry a high OBP and join the 20-20 club.  Boston already boasts a decently young outfield led by first-time All-Star Jarren Duran, though the club will find a place for Anthony if he continues to rake.

Noah Schultz, P, CHW – 2024 has been abysmal for the White Sox, but greener pastures could be ahead and it likely starts and ends with Schultz. The 21-year-old southpaw has dazzled since being promoted to Double-A, where he's posted a 1.35 ERA and 62:16 K:BB with opposing batters going .179 against the 6'9" hurler. Command/control has hardly been an issue for Schultz with his fastball/sweeper combination, and his unusual arm angle/slot continues to prove a nightmare for hitters. He gets compared to Randy Johnson due to his height and mechanics, though not nearly the same power arm. Schultz could still be incredibly dominant in Chi-Town, perhaps as early as next season.

Bubba Chandler, P, PIT – Is the Pirates organization the new model for scouting and pitching development? There's certainly plenty of excitement for the future as Jared Jones came out of the gate hot and then Paul Skenes turned up the heat en route to starting the All-Star Game. Chandler could be next in 2025 as the 21-year-old has gotten stronger as the year has progressed with a 1.17 ERA and 28:6 K:BB across 23 innings and four starts at Triple-A. Don't sleep on Thomas Harrington as Chandler's Triple-A teammate could also push for a starting rotation spot next year.

Moises Ballesteros, C/1B, CHC – Perhaps no prospect has helped their cause more this season than Ballesteros as he's vaulted near the top of the catching rankings. He's only 20, yet has displayed power by clubbing 19 homers between Double-A and Triple-A.  Perhaps just as importantly, Ballesteros is hitting for average and proving himself an above-average contact batter who doesn't sell out for power and isn't afraid to draw a walk. He may eventually have to move from behind the plater, but his polish and skill in the batter's box from the left side are obvious.

CHECK STATUS

Chase Dollander, P, COL – Dollander's numbers certainly fit the bill for an upper-echelon prospect, though pundits appear split on whether he can be a true rotation anchor. Either that or the pitching prospect who'll play his future home games in the thin air of Colorado gets automatically downgraded. Dollander demolished the opposition at High-A to begin the season as he recorded a 2.83 ERA and 111:28 K:BB over 70 innings. That resulted in a move up to High-A, where it can be argued he's been even better with a 1.43 ERA and 48:14 K:BB from 37.2 with opposing batters going .173 against. There are some concerns regarding Dollander's command and the effectiveness of a third pitch, but those appear to be minor concerns so far. He also doesn't get a lot of ground balls, yet has only allowed one homer through seven starts at Double-A. Maybe Dollander should be getting more notoriety rather than focusing on projected ballpark factors.

Spencer Jones, OF, NYY – Jones made a splash in spring training, but has otherwise had a largely unspectacular season. The 6'6" slugger has drawn comparisons to Aaron Judge, though any likeness to arguably the best hitter in baseball is unfair due to plenty of swing-and-miss in his game. Jones is slashing .260/.337/.445 with 15 home runs, 73 RBI and 24 steals across 110 contests at Double-A while fanning 184 times. (For unfair context, Judge has struck out 147 times.) If the Yankees re-sign Juan Soto in the offseason, that'll go a long way towards determining the Jones's future role as Jasson Dominguez is firmly ahead of him on the depth chart and Giancarlo Stanton is signed through at least 2027.

Jaden Hamm, P, DET – Jackson Jobe gets the pub in the Detroit system and rightfully so, yet Hamm has firmly placed himself on the prospect map with his performance this season. A fifth-round selection out of Middle Tennessee State last year, he's notched a 2.44 ERA and 118:31 K:BB in only 95 innings at High-A. The soon-to-be-22-year-old primarily uses a fastball with exceptional vertical movement up in the zone alongside a nasty curveball down in the zone with a changeup and/or slider in the works. The development of a third pitch and continued improved command ultimately dictate Hamm's future role, though his production so far is certainly intriguing.

Logan Evans, P, SEA – Evans has already exceeded expectations after being drafted in the 12th round out of Pitt in 2023. He offers excellent extension which allows his fastball to play up and combines that with a slider or cutter depending on the handedness of the hitter. The 23-year-old carries a solid frame at 6'4", 215 and appeared to lose a bit of steam down the stretch - especially in terms of control - but he still managed a 2.99 ERA through 99.1 innings at Double-A. Evans may not end up at the front of the rotation, though he's now one of Seattle's better pitching prospects.

DOWNGRADE

Ethan Salas, C, SD – Perhaps expectations were set too high for Salas and he could still succeed, yet 2024 proved to be rough. At only 18 at High-A, he's produced a .210/.293/.318 line through 105 contests with only four homers. On the plus side, Salas has retained decent peripheral stats by drawing 46 walks while striking out less than once per game. He only appears to be scratching the surface of his potential, but he'll certainly need to hit for a higher average as he ascends the higher levels. The Padres should be in no rush with their prized phenom.

Dylan Lesko, P, TB – The caveat with Lesko is that he was drafted straight out of high school in the first round of 2022 and needed Tommy John surgery while only logging 33 innings the next year in the San Diego organization. He flashed impressive strikeout stuff, though was predictably wild as he returned from injury. Unfortunately, Lesko's command only got worse this season as he issued 52 free passes in 69.2 innings. He also was unable to keep the ball down as he gave up 11 home runs over 16 starts at High-A. The Padres then shipped Lesko to the Rays for bullpen help, and he hasn't fared any better while moving to the bullpen and struggling there. He's still only 20, but he'll need to tweak his mechanics and fix his erratic throwing.