This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
If you've stuck around this long, it means you probably have some teams still in the hunt. My NFBC teams hit a rough patch the last few weeks, mostly because of pitchers, but I still hope to ride this wave out to a few league titles. It surely won't be anything resembling last season. The 2015 season was my best ever as I cashed in every single league and had a run at some overall titles in the NFBC. The letdown was inevitable this year. Not because I got cocky, got crushed by the injury bug or missed out on great hitter values. Basically, it's because I reverted to some old bad habits. Namely, chasing young upside arms that weren't quite ready.
I've preached the importance of getting two stable aces within your first five picks, and I did that for the most part. Outside of a couple Matt Harvey shares, I secured at least two of Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale and Jose Fernandez across seven NFBC leagues. They kept me afloat. Nevertheless, many of my teams are in the bottom third of the ERA category because I overvalued the up-and-coming live arms and constantly found myself chasing wins throughout the season.
The team I drafted on the day before the season started has held first place down for nearly five months but is starting to fall apart. It fell six league points on Monday following the Scott Kazmir, Homer Bailey Exacta (10 ER, 1 K in 5 IP). That team has mistimed Marcus Stroman horribly, benching him for two of his best outings. It's taken on 36 innings of a 6.13 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP with no wins from Archie Bradley. This squad is probably responsible for sucking the fantasy value out of Lucas Giolito (4 ER in 3.2 IP) for 2016 and it gave Tyler Skaggs a pounding (4 ER in 3.1 IP) following his season debut of back-to-back shutouts. Worst of all, I couldn't quit Jose Berrios, being the patience fantasy owner that I am and all. When the Twins finally promoted him, I was rewarded for my patience with 21 IP of a 5.06 ERA.
Granted, this same team scooped up Adam Wainwright off FAAB in May when a disgruntled leaguemate gave him his walking papers. I got some decent numbers from Adam Conley, and Kenta Maeda has been good to me. Plus, my closer trio of Kenley Jansen, Zach Britton and Alex Colome have kept me afloat with saves and K's, helping my ratios as best they could.
Before I continue to steer this discussion farther down Negativity Lane, let's look at the silver lining. Given what the "surefire" rookie troika of Jose Berrios, Lucas Giolito and Tyler Glasnow have accomplished, perhaps the market overcorrects next season. Perhaps we don't use a 15th-round pick on a rookie who may or may not be promoted in June. Not everyone comes into the league and dominates like Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom have. Same goes for holding on to pitchers with injuries or coming off Tommy John. Those who waited on Zack Wheeler and Alex Cobb are still waiting or have hopefully cut bait. Yu Darvish is a rare example of immediate TJ success, and even then it took a 13th-round pick and mid-summer start.
So much of getting the most out of your SP3-7 is matchup dependent. Much of the damage comes from never second-guessing our decision to play our pitchers on their two-start weeks even if one of the starts looks scary. Because after all, we don't want to give away strikeouts. We need to stay diligent and think twice about marginal pitchers with high strikeout upside when they have tough matchups on the schedule. And avoid lefties like Sean Manaea against righty-heavy lineups on the road. Because even if we know he's "going to be good someday," we are still playing in the moment – for this season.
My biggest takeaway and a lesson to myself is to not allow myself to be overly enamored with inexperienced high-upside starting pitcher. Because they rarely hit immediately, and before you know it, you've got a slew of them in your starting lineup. There should be elements of caution and conservatism in our craft, and we must use both judiciously.
RISERS
Gary Sanchez (C, NYY)
If you were fortunate enough to bid on and acquire Sanchez a few weeks ago, you're probably loving life now. The 23-year-old prospect was called up for one game last season and again in mid-May for one game. Sanchez was finally promoted for what appears to be forever in early August and has quickly become one of the Yankees' best hitters. Since the promotion on Aug. 3, Sanchez has hit .379 with a 1.195 OPS (through Sunday's games). He has picked up the pace lately, swatting four of his six home runs last week and has recently moved up to the third spot in the Yankees' batting order. Sanchez is slugging .909 against righties but just .357 against southpaws, albeit a small sample of 17 plate appearances. It's a breath of fresh air for owners who were struggling with rotating second catchers most of the season. No matter how he performs the rest of the season, Sanchez is a sure-fire top-10 catcher next season and could even crack the top five. Although he has attempted just one steal (successfully) this month, Sanchez is capable of throwing in a few SBs for fantasy owners, as well. Enjoy him in daily leagues for a few more days before the price reaches the range of catchers like Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey and Wilson Ramos. Update: TWO more homers for Everyday Gary on Monday.
Yasmany Tomas (OF, ARI)
In just his second full major league season, Tomas appears to have arrived as a hitter. An afterthought for most of us at the draft tables this spring, Tomas was readily available as an OF5 or bench guy after the 18th round in most NFBC 12-team leagues. Although his home park was a boon, the concern was that Tomas lacked the power to average 20 or more homers in the majors. And with much concern about Cuban hitters struggling recently like Yasiel Puig, his roto suitors were far and few between. Tomas has improved on his pull-rate (49 percent in the second half, 41 percent in the first half), which has helped him in the power department. Since the All-Star break, only Brian Dozier (14 HR) and Khris Davis (13 HR) have more dongs than Tomas' 12. Tomas continues to be a poor base-runner and fielder but has proved to be a force in the Diamondbacks' offense. He is hitting just .263 with a .308 OBP but is quickly approaching the 30-homer mark and will likely see his average draft position shoot up about 100 spots overall next season. Whether he earns his new ADP and continues to produce like he has next season remains to be seen. Update: Whaddya know? Another homer Monday.
Alex Bregman (3B, HOU)
The Astros' uber prospect was promoted to the big club not long after the All-Star break on July 25 and started off cold as ice – just one hit in his 32 at-bats (eight games). He was not in the starting lineup the following day, that final game of the series against the Blue Jays. Since that day off, Bregman has been one of baseball's hottest hitters. He is hitting .333 with three homers, 13 RBI and 14 runs scored since Aug. 4 and has reached base safely in all but one of the 17 games he's played since that day. Most important, Bregman has recently been hitting out of the two-hole between George Springer and Jose Altuve. In most formats, Bregman is eligible at both middle infield and corner infield positions. He may not run much in that spot, nor does he offer much in the steals category as is. But the second overall pick of the 2015 draft is a smart hitter with a sweet swing and could be one of those rare players who maintains a batting average hovering around .300 over the first decade of his career. That wretched 1-for 32-start is the main culprit behind his current .238 BA, but all that does is keep his price regulated for fantasy players who simply look at year-end numbers and don't dive in. It might be premature to project Bregman's numbers for 2017, but if we had to, I'd expect somewhere around 85 runs, 15-20 homers, 80 RBI and a batting average north of .285. Despite his pedigree, Bregman may come in at a solid value next season because of the plethora of young stud infielders in the league. If he settles at or around the top of the Astros' order next spring with that stud core around him, Bregman could easily surpass my preseason run and RBI projections for 2017. Update: Wow, all the risers are going yard Monday.
David Phelps (SP, MIA)
Talk about some much-needed strikeout and ratio help when so many of us need it most. Every year, late season arms available in free agency for single-digit bids emerge to help us down the stretch. Phelps was a long-time Yankees' farmhand who made his debut in 2012 and pitched between middle relief and the rotation for four seasons before making his way to the Marlins in a winter 2014 trade for flamethrower Nathan Eovaldi. Phelps made 19 starts for the Marlins last season, managing a below-average 4.50 ERA and 16 percent strikeout rate. This season, the 29-year-old re-emerged as a middle reliever and flourished in the role, allowing just four home runs and 11 earned runs in just less than 55 innings while striking out 69 batters. That's the Phelps RotoWire co-founder Jeff Erickson was waiting for as Jeff identified Phelps' potential a couple seasons ago. Phelps made his first start of the season Aug. 5. It was no small task taking on the Rockies in Coors, but Phelps persevered (one walk, no earned runs) despite not making it out of the fifth inning. His three starts since have been terrific – 19 strikeouts in 16.1 innings with just 10 hits and three earned runs allowed. Phelps threw between 90 and 96 pitches in those three starts, but will continue to ramp up and go deeper into games over these final few weeks. Phelps is relying more on his fastball this year than in previous seasons and he is responsible for one of baseball's biggest velocity upticks, increasing from 90.4 mph on average last season to nearly 94 mph this season. Next up on the schedule are the Padres and the Mets – two of the league's biggest groups of whiffers at the plate. The only downside is, considering the Olympics, he isn't even the most productive Phelps of the last two weeks.
Brandon Finnegan (SP, CIN)
It's probably a stretch to call Finnegan a riser after one great outing amidst an otherwise horrible season. Finnegan threw a masterful gem over the weekend – a one-hitter over seven scoreless innings and eight strikeouts against the Dodgers. This season, Finnegan is 8-9 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. His strikeout rate is a below-league average 17.5 percent, and he is walking nearly 4.5 batters per nine innings, though I do believe the 2014 first-round pick of the Royals will be better next season. He has improved since the All-Star break, maintaining a 3.35 ERA and a 4-2 record in those seven starts. A couple of outings were rough – a six walk night in St. Louis and six earned runs on three homers against the Diamondbacks just two weeks before that. But Finnegan has otherwise held his own, allowing no earned runs in three other starts. He harnesses a four-pitch arsenal (sinker, slider, fastball, changeup), utilizing the sinker most often, though his slider is his most effective pitch (.209 oBA). The southpaw has allowed 25 of 26 home runs this year to right-handed hitters, and, of course, hitter-friendly Great American does him no favors. Finnegan is 12-team worthy as long as you bench him next week in Chase Field. He will be drafted as an end-gamer with upside next spring and is an arm worth tracking the final six weeks. Finnegan is better than his numbers portray.
FALLERS
Orlando Arcia (SS, MLW)
Apparently, I was the only one who didn't get the memo that Orlando Arcia was going to stink upon promotion. I gladly bid him up with an average NFBC bid of $13 across five leagues and was surprised when I saw almost no conditional bids on him in most of my leagues. I easily could have snagged Arcia for a buck in most places. I didn't factor in that shortstop is a cornucopia of riches this season and that most fantasy owners don't need another. I was excited to see Arcia hitting second between Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun for a few games. But that's basically where the excitement subsided. Arcia has been horrible this month, hitting .152 with a .233 on-base percentage through his first 17 games. The lone positive is that Arcia has seven walks and successfully stole second on both of his attempts. This Sunday, I dropped Arcia for Chris Owings in several of those leagues. And you can almost see me not practice what I typically preach in this column. Owings has been going nutty for the last two weeks and I'm buying him at the top of his value. Would it surprise you at all if the much more talented Arcia pulls a Bregman and begins a hot streak of his own this week? It's truly a game of ebbs and flows. We never want to buy someone at the top of his value, and we surely don't want to drop a good hitter at the bottom of his. Let my itchy waiver wire finger be a lesson and watch Arcia go off this week. Update: Off to a bad start on Monday, another 0-for-4.
Michael Saunders (OF, TOR)
So here's the really good part. Saunders has stayed healthy! After all, that was our biggest concern with the oft-injured veteran. With 110 games played, it's just the third time in his eight year career that Saunders has appeared in more than 100 major league games. We certainly have no right to complain about the 62 runs scored and 20 dingers. Not bad for a guy who was essentially undrafted in all 12-team formats. But Toronto is a city where decent hitters become better ones, and Saunders was no exception. Most impressive, Saunders learned how to hit lefties – a .606 slugging percentage against them this season compared to a .335 SLG over his last three seasons. Saunders is actually more productive against lefties than right-handed pitchers this season. He has slumped hard since the break, though, hitting .162 in 116 plate appearances after hitting .298 in 337 plate appearances before the break. As it goes with our favorite sport, Saunders likely will get going on another hot streak here soon. After getting an opportunity to hit cleanup and fifth in the lineup for a good part of the summer, he has slid down to the six-spot lately with Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki getting the opportunity to hit in the middle of the lineup. I expect another five to eight homers from Saunders and for him to raise his .263 batting average up into the low .270s.
Archie Bradley (SP, ARI)
Here's a guy who is just not ready. Bradley is just too sloppy this season and likely would be sent back to the minors if he was a part of any other franchise. On the plus side, Bradley does average nearly a strikeout per inning, and there's obvious value within that category. But he walks so many batters and gets hit so frequently that any gain there is undone and fractured further by his horrendous ratios. Through 18 starts (100 innings pitched) this season, Bradley is walking more than 4.6 batters per nine. Only Yovani Gallardo, Tyler Chatwood and Matt Moore have walked more batters since the break than Bradley's 21. He relies mostly upon a 92.2 mph fastball that appears to fly faster toward the plate than it actually does. Besides the FB, Bradley has a changeup, a cutter and a knuckle-curve that is actually his most effective pitch (.216 oBA), but it's more often used as his strikeout pitch. Bradley has flashed success at the big-league level this year. In early June, he threw a four-hitter against the Cubbies in Wrigley, striking out 10 and allowing one earned run. A couple weeks later, he threw six scoreless with six punchouts on the road against the Phillies. In his following start, a doozy of an outing in Coors Field, Bradley gave up one earned run with five strikeouts and a win. But he did walk four batters in those five innings. And that's been the common theme. Not many starting pitchers in baseball allow free passes as often as Bradley. And therein lies his lack of relevancy in 12-team leagues. He is available to pick up in most NFBC leagues this week and most chose not to even though he has two starts this week. Unless a team is truly solid in their ERA and WHIP and only needs strikeouts, one cannot add Bradley to the team this week with confidence. Bradley is a real-life first-round pick and has a bright future. Here's hoping that the team's pitching coaches are working with Bradley on the holes in his game so that he can fully realize some of that untapped potential for 2017. He's a "no" for me for the rest of the season, but any gains he makes the next six weeks will be noticed and drafted on appropriately. Archie Bradley is better than this.
Josh Tomlin (SP, CLE)
Well, I hope you all enjoyed the ride, because it's officially over and the time has come to abort ship. The hoodwinking began in the second half last season when Tomlin and his career 4.59 ERA joined the Indians' rotation. Over 10 marvelous starts, Tomlin won seven games and managed a 3.02 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. Regardless, fantasy owners took the results with a grain of salt and did not raise his ADP to more respectable levels, expecting a near full regression. The deception continued through most of this season. Tomlin went 9-2 with a 3.51 ERA prior to the All-Star break, and he was among the league's most frugal on the free passes, allowing just 11 walks, which helped keep the WHIP right around the 1.00 mark. Conversely, Tomlin's 21 HR allowed at the break were tied for most in baseball with Jered Weaver, Max Scherzer and Ian Kennedy. The sheep finally took off his wolf suit as his walks began to pile up while the HR rate maintained. After a stellar first half where Tomlin did not issue a walk in nearly half of his starts (7 of 16), Tomlin now has issued at least one free pass in every outing since the break. Moreover, he now holds the distinction of allowing the most home runs (32) in baseball. Tomlin has also allowed 23 earned runs and seven home runs in four August starts. The wheels are officially off. Hopefully you've looked at his game logs and homers allowed recently, noticed the Rangers in Arlington on the schedule and knew it was time to give Tomlin the boot. The clock has struck midnight and it's back to Pumpkin City for the 31-year-old gopher ball aficionado.
Matt Moore (SP, SF)
We all have a type of pitcher we love and are drawn to in fantasy baseball. Perhaps it's hard-throwing southpaws like Chris Sale, Danny Duffy and Eduardo Rodriguez. Others prefer to target low-upside but steady pitchers like Adam Wainwright, Gerrit Cole and Julio Teheran. The type that hardly ever surprise you in the box scores with a seven earned run outing. Then there are owners who care little about control and target high K/9 guys like Robbie Ray, Drew Smyly, Kevin Gausman and Collin McHugh – all of whom occasionally get rocked or WHIP'd. No matter how long we play the game, we seem to have a strong affinity for a "type." Of course, the best way to build is with balance, but under the gun of the draft clock, we subconsciously lean to type toward what we have an affinity for. For me, it's a blend of the safer ratio guys with the high-upside, high-velocity guys. That's why I targeted Rubby De La Rosa before the season, hoping that he'd made strides against lefties and had improved on his control. Either way, none of this has much to do with Matt Moore. Well, kind of. To me, he's always been in my "avoid" bucket. Just a guy who I never thought would be as good as scouts and his ardent supporters thought he would be. Yes, Matt Moore missed 2014 and half of 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery. And yes, Moore has had flashes of greatness this season – a 10-strikeout win against the White Sox in April and seven scoreless with 10 K's against the Astros in mid-June. But we're talking about a pitcher who should have a fully healed arm and continues to walk massive amounts of batters all season even though he's split his season between the two of the friendliest pitching venues in Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Moore ranks 19th worst in BB/9 among qualified starters and 21st worst in HR/9. Worst of all, the supposed high-upside strikeout guy ranks just 49th among qualified starters with a 20.2 strikeout-rate. We would hope it gets better for Moore owners down the stretch, but there, of course, are no guarantees. Moore will once again have an overstated ADP because of his division and home park next spring, and the only guarantee we can give ourselves is that we won't be drafting him. That's the least we could do for ourselves.
