This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Tuesday, September 17
- Year-to-Date Record: 155-158-1
- Prior Article: 1-2 ( -1.20 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Don't make any wagers on the best online sportsbooks without first consulting the lastest MLB odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Miami Marlins 
It is hard to go over 9.5 runs in Miami, but both of these starting pitchers are awful. Bobby Miller has an 8.17 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 12 starts over 54 innings. The scary part about Miller is his home/road splits, where he has an 11.39 ERA and 2.17 WHIP on the road with 6.8 K/9, 5.9 BB/9 and 3.6 HR/9.
Darren McCaughan has been almost as bad with a 7.06 ERA and 1.81 WHIP, but he has been much better at home, which makes sense given the ballpark.
Both teams are trending toward the over as the Dodgers are 6-1 to the over in their last seven games and 5-12 to the over in the series. The Dodgers have averaged five runs per game over their last 10 while the Marlins are at four runs per game.
MLB Picks for Dodgers at Marlins
- Dodgers/Marlins Over 9.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals 
at New York Mets 
The total in this game feels off to me with only a 7.5 number posted, but both offenses have not been great recently. Still, we have Mitchell Parker against Tylor Megill, who have a combined 9.94 ERA in their last seven starts.
The Mets are fourth in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers in the last 30 days and that is where you can exploit the value in this line. I am not thrilled about the 4.5 run number but the splits data should get them to at least 3-4 runs while Parker is in the game.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Mets
- Mets Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Oakland Athletics 
at Chicago Cubs 
The A's are not that good, but they can mash left-handed pitching and Jordan Wicks gave up four home runs in his last start against the Dodgers. The A's are 18-17 against lefties and just 47-69 against right-handers. Wicks does not get much swing and miss, which plays right into Oakland's wheelhouse.
There are some over trends in the series. The over is 5-2 in the series' last seven. The over is also 12-5 in Oakland's last 17 games.
MLB Picks for Athletics at Cubs
- Athletics Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Dodgers/Marlins Over 9.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Mets Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Athletics Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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