This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets for Phillies-Padres Game 3
Last Article's Record: 2-1 +1.02 units
Season Record:216-200-6 +28.32 units
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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
The Padres and Phillies are tied 1-1 with Game 3 back in Philadelphia off a day's rest. The Padres have a significant edge in starting pitching with Joe Musgrove vs. Ranger Suarez. Suarez also has a higher ERA and WHIP at home this year with a 4.27 ERA vs. 3.20. The problem with Suarez against this Padres lineup is his lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate.
Suarez home splits vs right-handed batters - 52.1 innings, 7.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 17.9% K, 10.2% BB, .292 AVG, 1.62 WHIP. The right-handed Padres bats will be able to get to him in this spot.
Musgrove road splits vs. right-handed batters - 38.2 innings, 9.3 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 21.6% K, 3.1% BB, .257 AVG, 1.14 WHIP, 2.93 xFIP. Musgrove will have to keep left-handed Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper at bay, but his BVP numbers are 5 for 30 against them.
I think the Padres win tonight rather easily and take a 2-1 series lead.
MLB Best Bets for Padres at Phillies
- Padres OVER 3.5 runs for 1.3 RW buck (DraftKings -130)
- Padres -1.5 for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +145)
- Manny Machado to hit HR for 0.5 RW buck (DraftKings +425)
- Brandon Drury to hit HR for 0.5 RW buck (DraftKings +550)
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