MLB Bets Tonight: Expert MLB Picks and Player Props for NLCS Game 3

MLB Bets Tonight: Expert MLB Picks and Player Props for NLCS Game 3

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets for Phillies-Padres Game 3

Last Article's Record: 2-1 +1.02 units

Season Record:216-200-6 +28.32 units

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San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

The Padres and Phillies are tied 1-1 with Game 3 back in Philadelphia off a day's rest. The Padres have a significant edge in starting pitching with Joe Musgrove vs. Ranger Suarez. Suarez also has a higher ERA and WHIP at home this year with a 4.27 ERA vs. 3.20. The problem with Suarez against this Padres lineup is his lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate. 

Suarez home splits vs right-handed batters - 52.1 innings, 7.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 17.9% K, 10.2% BB, .292 AVG, 1.62 WHIP. The right-handed Padres bats will be able to get to him in this spot.

Musgrove road splits vs. right-handed batters - 38.2 innings, 9.3 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 21.6% K, 3.1% BB, .257 AVG, 1.14 WHIP, 2.93 xFIP. Musgrove will have to keep left-handed Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper at bay, but his BVP numbers are 5 for 30 against them. 

I think the Padres win tonight rather easily and take a 2-1 series lead. 

MLB Best Bets for Padres at Phillies

  • Padres OVER 3.5 runs for 1.3 RW buck (DraftKings -130)
  • Padres -1.5 for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +145)
  • Manny Machado to hit HR for 0.5 RW buck (DraftKings +425)
  • Brandon Drury to hit HR for 0.5 RW buck (DraftKings +550)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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