This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Tonight: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks NLCS Game 5, Oct. 21
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Last article: 2-2 (-2.28 RW Bucks)
2023 regular-season/postseason record: 37-43-1 (+7.91 RW Bucks)
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The Cinderella Diamondbacks appeared to be in danger of seeing their postseason carriage turn into a pumpkin over the first two games of the NLCS, but Arizona has leveraged some clutch hitting to even the series on its home field.
That sets up a pivotal Game 5 on Saturday night between the aces of the respective staffs, and we'll break down some bets to consider for the showdown in the desert.
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Best Bets
Zack Wheeler rose to the occasion and then some in Game 1 of this series, mostly dominating a DBacks lineup populated by several players that had given him trouble in the past to record eight strikeouts over six innings. Wheeler's one mistake resulted in a two-run home run by Geraldo Perdomo, but he was otherwise true to his strong career postseason body of work.
However, it's always tough to face the same lineup twice within the same week, and this time, Wheeler will do it in enemy territory in front of a crowd buoyed by the results of the last two nights. There will be even more pressure than usual for him to act as a stopper and get the Phillies train back on track to avoid going back home one win from elimination.
While Wheeler undoubtedly has the talent to do just that, the DBacks' confidence is surging, and the quartet of the sizzling-hot Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, Tommy Pham and Christian Walker had all enjoyed plenty of success off Wheeler in the past before their quiet Game 1 showings.
Postseason betting can be tricky, and banking on a staff ace to struggle can be misguided. However, we'll hedge our bets here, literally, by simply backing Arizona to keep it close during the first five innings. We'll also put some faith in Gallen bouncing back enough from an uneven Game 1 showing (5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) in which he surrendered three homers to right the ship at home – where he went 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 0.6 HR/9 across 102 innings in the regular season – to get at least 16 outs, something he did in 28 of 34 starts, including his only encounter with the Phillies.
Finally, with Walker owning a .474 average in 19 career plate appearances against Wheeler and being long overdue for some hits to fall in – the slugger finished the regular season in an 0-for-15 slump and is 6-for-30 this postseason, including 1-for-13 in the NLCS – I'll go with a nice price on his hits + runs + RBI prop.
Walker finished the regular season with a .282 average, .869 OPS and .365 wOBA against right-handed pitching at home and feasts on fastballs, Wheeler's most-often thrown the pitch against right-handed hitters. He'll also get a crack at what should be a tired Phillies bullpen after Wheeler exits.
MLB Focus Bets for Phillies at Diamondbacks:
- Diamondbacks +0.5 runs - 1st 5 innings (-140 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Zac Gallen Over 15.5 outs recorded (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Christian Walker Over 1.5 Runs + Hits + RBI (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
