This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-3, -2.57 RWBucks (one void)
Season: 66-88-2, -32.06 RWBucks
A starter pulled after an inning, a different game lost in Calvinball. Fun.
There was no Wednesday column for, I think, the first time this season. I had an invitation to watch the Phillies and Nationals in a matinee at Citizens Bank Park, which didn't leave much of a window for writing. I did, while in New Jersey on my way down, have the good sense to take the over, which hit in the top of the fifth on a Kyle Schwarber bomb that tied the game 5-5. Little did we know the scoring wasn't even half done in what became a 13-12 Nationals victory.
Being at the park, you notice just how integrated sports betting is with MLB now. There's a ribbon ad for DraftKings on the second deck of CBP, and it was there for most, maybe all of the game, encouraging you to "Bet Live Now!" (I feel for the people who had the under 24.5, looked like a solid play.) One of the guys I was at the game with took the Phillies live at a big number when they trailed 11-9, and eventually cashed it out -- an option you have in the apps now -- at about 80% of its value, just in time for the Nationals to score two runs in the ninth and make that look smart. I am never sure about using that; you're giving up equity but managing variance, and it probably works best in spots were you're turning a nice profit on what was a big number, as was the case for my friend yesterday.
A betting column doesn't pair well with live-betting analysis, of course. Shows like VSIN's "Prime Time Action" will integrate live odds into their conversations, but they change so quickly, sometimes from pitch to pitch in baseball, that by the time the analysis hits your ears, the line has moved. In general, though, I do think live betting can be profitable, even at what are very high vigs. It is, however, a full-time job if you're going to do it. You really have to be almost in a sports book setting with live feeds from every game, and no distractions.
We don't have any live bets today, just some picks off a short Thursday night card, using the lines from the DraftKings app.
7 p.m. Orioles (Dean Kremer)/Blue Jays (Anthony Kay) first five innings over 5.5 (-134).
The Orioles don't do much right, but they do hammer lefties, and Anthony Kay is a lower-tier left-hander who hasn't reached the fifth inning in four starts this season. Dean Kremer against the Blue Jays' powerful lineup isn't a fair fight, either. The game line is 10.5 as I write this and will probably go to 11, and the above bet might slide up to six. Act quickly. 2 RWBucks.
7 p.m. Rays (Michael Wacha) first five innings -112 over Red Sox (Nick Pivetta).
I don't write as much about preseason evaluations these days, but this bet is driven by those baseline considerations. This is the better team, with a comparable starter, at home, at a very short price, and I can lock Pivetta in without worrying about late-game shenanigans. Pivetta has a 5.97 ERA since the middle of May and has been just handing out fly balls. 1.5 RWBucks.
7 p.m. Astros (Luis Garcia) team total over 5.5 (-122) versus Tigers (Jose Urena).
The Astros have become an absolute killing machine, especially when given a chance to exploit bad pitching. Urena, who like Pivetta got off to a surprising start this season, doesn't have a quality start since May 2 and has an 8.49 ERA with more walks allowed than strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. The Astros are hitting .308/.382/.542 in June, or about what Mike Piazza did at his peak. Have fun, Tigers. 2 RWBucks.
10 p.m. Cubs (Zach Davies)/Dodgers (Walker Buehler) under 8.5 (-105). The Dodgers' injuries are really taking a piece out of their offense, and while I'd like this line better at nine, the combination of Buehler -- seven straight quality starts -- and a suddenly struggling Dodgers' lineup seems like a real opportunity, even against a pitcher, in Zach Davies, I'd normally look to fade. 1 RWBuck.
