Friday's National League Division Series (NLDS) Game 5 represents our first exclusive showcase slate, which will start to become the norm as the postseason progresses. It's not my favorite or forte, and this particular game has such clear high-end options I'm unsure how we fade them, but that's an unfortunate must for a tournament winner.
Tonight's Padres-Dodgers game comes with a total of 8.0 runs, depending on where you're looking. It's in SoCal, so we know it's dry. Wind reports are worth checking, but we usually have a light outbound blow.
San Diego will start Yu Darvish, who's dominated the Dodgers to the tune of a .195 batting average (52-for-266) with a .594 OPS and 25.3 percent strikeout rate. He threw seven innings of one-run ball in Game 2. Los Angeles has not announced a starter yet and will likely use a plethora of their bullpen in addition to Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the hopes of staying alive. It doesn't allow us to target BvP or handed splits.
A friendly reminder as we get showdowns only, this column isn't built to dictate a straight lineup build, but rather give thoughts on your options.
MVP
Fernando Tatis, SD at LAD ($8,500): This roster spot in your builds is reserved for three players, and you simply have to choose one. Tatis is a nice price discount to Shohei Ohtani ($10,000), who isn't fairing well in this series, but Mookie Betts ($9,000) is. Those are the choices. Pick your game script and preferred option, and build out.
Star
Freddie Freeman, LAD vs. SD ($6,500): This spot is how you can win a showdown slate, as everyone knows the options at the 2x multiplier, and likely uses a second of the three clear choices as their 1.5x option. Freeman hopefully isn't popular today. He is a modest 10-for-40 (.250) off of Darvish with three homers and three doubles. It looks like his power is fading with age, but the price is down because of that, and he's going to get run-producing chances.
Utility
Xander Bogaerts, SD at LAD ($5,500): I can't stress enough to fade Luis Arraez ($5,500). He's a lazy pick everyone will be on to collect one hit and maybe score. There's no upside, illustrated by seven straight games with single-digit fantasy scoring. Bogaerts has six hits in his last seven, scoring four times. Hitting in the heart of the order means he has a far higher ceiling.
Gavin Lux, LAD vs. SD ($5,500): With Miguel Rojas not available, the Dodgers' lineup is less predictable, which will likely give us a sub-$5,000 starter to consider. Lux isn't that cheap, but he's a safe bet to get at-bats, and he's been productive, with five hits, three RBI and three runs in this series. Showdowns are about your preferred build; stars and scrubs, or more balanced with second-tier options getting series-winning hits. Lux can likely play a part in either strategy.
David Peralta, SD at LAD ($5,000): Peralta has started the last three games for the Padres, collecting four hits and four RBI while scoring twice. He's presumably the cheapest option seemingly assured of a start and multiple plate appearances. He offers upside while also giving salary relief to potentially get two of the top three options onto your roster.
