A massive 14-game slate awaits Friday evening at FanDuel, and it's chalked full of aces. Tarik Skubal ($11,500) leads five starters priced in five figures, with six more coming in at $9,000 or greater. That's obviously going to make spending freely for offense a challenge.
Despite the Reds' opponent (Colorado), I'm mildly surprised to see them (-240) as the slate's biggest favorite, followed by the Tigers (-225) and Brewers (-184). Blue Jays-A's is our only double-digit run total at 10.5, while Twins-Pirates comes at an absurdly low 6.5. Only two other games sit below eight, so if we're creative and selective, there should be some offense from less obvious choices. Wind looks like an assistance in Kansas City, but that game comes with ample rain concerns and must be monitored. It's hot in Sacramento and St. Louis, which should help balls carry.
Pitching
Ryne Nelson, ARI at LAA ($9,200): Per usual, use any of the top options as you can afford them, no hard hitting thoughts are needed to justify those guys. But we'll try to find some cheaper options to build a balanced lineup here. I don't love Nelson's price surge, but it's difficult to argue his form, as he's averaged 35.4 FanDuel points across his last five starts. He's allowed two runs or fewer in all but three outings all season. The Angels' 25.7 percent K rate is always targetable even if they run into a long ball.
Chase Burns, CIN vs. COL ($8,800): Burns clearly has the stuff to retire big league hitters, but he's still learning to pitch, which creates fantasy scoring volatility because of high pitch counts and low inning totals. He's gone 10 total innings in three starts. But his 13.5 K/9 will play against a Rockies lineup with a 26.4 percent K rate. Colorado has a league-worst 75 wRC+ off righties and a 3.2 run expectancy. Edward Cabrera ($8,700) has a more difficult matchup but seems a safer bet for higher innings.
Quinn Priester, MIL vs. WSH ($8,200): It's a play strictly based on betting odds. Milwaukee is the third-largest favorite, and the Nationals have a low 3.3 run expectancy. Priester has shown upside and volatility. In two of his last three starts, he's allowed a combined seven runs and 16 hits across 8.0 innings. However, he's won four of his last six outings, earning three quality starts, giving managers 30-plus FanDuel points four times with a 64-point ceiling. Washington doesn't strike out often, just 19.2 percent, but are below league average elsewhere off righties. At worst, we'll seemingly know if Priester is on early, potentially allowing us to pivot to some later game hitters with more upside if we have to chase.
Top Targets
With such high-end depth on the mound, I doubt many builds will allow managers to afford Aaron Judge ($4,800), so it's possible we get very low roster percentages. We don't know how long Chris Flexen will go, and the Cubs were able to rest their bullpen Thursday, but we know the massive potential Judge comes with, and the Yankees should flirt with six runs.
The Reds have the highest run expectancy at 6.7 against German Marquez, who has a 6.48 road ERA. That could suggest we just set Elly De La Cruz ($3,800) and move on, as he carries a .389 wOBA, 148 wRC+ and .234 ISO off righties. Marquez has been more vulnerable to righties away from Coors Field, so you could get cute and look toward Austin Hays ($3,400), who's hit in six of eight with six RBI.
Luis Severino has a 7.04 home ERA (though a lower 4.49 xFIP) and is allowing a .384 wOBA and .886 OPS to righties. Vladimir Guerrero ($3,200) hasn't homered since June 29, but is 4-for-12 with a homer off Severino. George Springer ($3,400) is just 3-for-31 but has two homers. The ballpark still makes this a high upside spot for either.
Ketel Marte ($3,800) and Jackson Chourio ($3,400) are always fine options against left-handed starters.
Bargain Bats
I have some interest in an Astros stack (see below), but Christian Walker ($3,000) is a decent stand-alone play, He's hit safely in nine of 10, collecting 15 hits, two homers and eight RBI in that stretch.
Atlanta's Grant Holmes has struggled outside of Truist Park with a 4.46 ERA and 4.90 xFIP, and has allowed a .368 wOBA to righties. Willson Contreras ($3,100) has seven hits, a homer and four RBI during a five-game hitting streak. Masyn Winn ($2,800) has seven hits in his last five but not much else.
Nathan Lukes ($2,600) is priced too low so long as he remains in the Blue Jays leadoff spot. And we can stay in Sacramento for some value in the A's lineup. Max Scherzer is allowing a .423 wOBA to righties in limited action, while the A's big options are left-handed. Rounding out a build with Denzel Clarke ($2,400) who has seven hits in his last six could work, while Max Muncy ($2,700) has more power upside.
Stacks to Consider
Rangers vs. Lance McCullers (Astros): Wyatt Langford ($3,600), Corey Seager ($3,500), Marcus Semien ($3,200)
I think there's game stacking potential here, as neither pitcher has shown any consistency. And it's a statistical anomaly, but McCullers has an 11.37 home ERA (4.41 xFIP) against a 0.46/4.47 on the road. He's allowing 3.3 HR/9, a .536 wOBA a 1.316 OPS to righties in this spot. All three of these Rangers are in sound form. Semien has the most exposure to McCullers, going 9-for-23 (.391) and has five hits, five RBI and six runs in his last three. Langford also has five hits, five RBI and five runs in his last three and gives us a second high-upside righty. Seager has hit safely in 16 of his last 18 with seven homers.
Rays vs. Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox): Junior Caminero ($3,500), Jonathan Aranda ($3,200), Ha-Seong Kim ($2,700)
Dobbins was better at home prior to injury but remains volatile, and much of that success came early in the season in cold weather. The Rays can be a frustrating stack, as production can come from anywhere in their lineup, but that keeps pricing reasonable. It's all or nothing with Caminero, but he's homered in consecutive games. Aranda balances Caminero's boom-or-bust profile, as he has 11 hits in his last six games. We'll need to see how the lineup shakes out, but assuming Brandon Lowe misses his fifth straight game, Kim figures to slot higher in the order. He's got five hits in four games since returning from injury, including a homer last night.
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