MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 10)

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little brash. Especially this early in the season with player evaluations up in the air, some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Batters

Tyrone Taylor (119 NFBC Drops, -9% at CBS)

It has been an interesting few weeks for Taylor. When Hunter Renfroe was on the IL, Taylor was playing every day while hitting in the middle of the lineup. In May, he posted a slash line of .279/.337/.535 with six homers and one stolen base. Since Renfroe has returned to the lineup, Taylor has started five of eight games (as of this writing) from the ninth spot while batting .167/.167/.222. Taylor is still splitting time with Lorenzo Cain even though the team said Cain's role was going to be limited.

In a deep enough league, Taylor can be fantasy relevant as a full-time player, but he's droppable with only a two-thirds role. Especially if he's getting end-of-the-order runs and RBI. In 501 career plate appearances, he has 20 homers, seven steals and a .241 average. Those numbers can work, but in a full season.

His profile is similar to Max Kepler, Mark Canha and Luis Urias. Not exactly game-changers, but good enough batters to be in 12-team fantasy lineups. Taylor just needs the playing time to get there.

Evan Longoria (115 NFBC Drops, -7% at CBS)

When Longoria came off the IL in mid-May, I figured he'd get full-time at-bats, but he has started in only 20 of 32 games (pinch hitter in seven games). During that span, he has hit .287 /.463/.750 with five homers.

Age is catching up with the 36-year-old. His strikeout rate has gone from 19% to 23% to 30%. He could be selling out contact for power, with career-high Launch Angle and Barrel% marks. Additionally, he is posting his best HR/FB (19%) since 2012.

He's definitely sitting fastball with all his home runs coming off them, but pitchers haven't adjusted. While he's selling out for power, it's not that much. He's on a full-season pace of 25 homers to go along with a low average and no steals. Similar players are Mike Moustakas, Kole Calhoun (see next) or catchers like Gary Sanchez or Yasmani Grandal. But that's with full-time at-bats -- not this part-time stuff he's getting right now.

Kole Calhoun (72 NFBC Drops, -13% at CBS)

Calhoun was on fire in May with a 1.013 OPS and seven homers, but he couldn't hit himself out of a wet paper bag in April (.375 OPS) or June (.386 OPS). The overall results of seven homers and a .234 average would be in line with preseason expectations. Since he's cooled down, he's sat against the last two lefty starters.

Nothing in his basic profile sticks out as different in May. His batted-ball metrics (Pull%, Hard Hit%, and Flyball%) are consistent. His plate disciple is the same. The two main luck factors -- BABIP and HR/FB -- are the only two factors that stick out. Here are his monthly values.

Month: BABIP, HR/FB%
April: .214, 0%
May: .390, 29%
June: .182, 0%

The key will be trying to time his hot streaks. There is a good chance he'll heat up in about a week and not because he's due. It's because he's facing the Nationals and Royals who have the league's first and third highest ERAs.

Nicky Lopez (58 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

Lopez's season so far (.214/.286/.251, zero homers, four steals) has been a major disappointment compared to last season (.300/.365/.378, two homers, 22 steals). Lopez's struggles simply come down to him not having major-league power. For a visual, here is Baseball Savant's power profile.

One hit almost made it to the warning track. Single-digit percentiles in power. The 27-year-old isn't likely to all of sudden find some latent power.

And besides the lack of power, he doesn't even have a line-drive swing as seen by his 52% GB%. Weakly hit groundballs are not a recipe for success. Because of his profile, pitchers aren't afraid of him and are feeding him fastballs at a 55% clip (49% is league average).

He was probably rostered for the ability to steal bases (4-for-4 this season), but he's not getting the chances since he's not getting on base.

His stolen base chances take an additional hit because the team is limiting his chances by first batting him ninth.  Also, he's sat three of the last six games with no reported injury.

I'd leave him on the wire and only dive back in if his playing time or lineup spot improves.

Starters

Konnor Pilkington (194 NFBC Drops, -14% at CBS)

Last week, fantasy managers were adding Pilkington because of two projected starts against the Rangers and Athletics. A doubleheader messed up his two-step with the A's getting to him. In this week's start at Colorado, he survived by allowing two earned runs in four innings while striking out three batters and walking only one.

Stepping back, I don't see a reason to roster Pilkington going forward because of the walks he allows. While a 9.3 K/9 and 3.67 ERA might be attractive, he has a 1.56 WHIP (5.0 BB/9). That's an unrosterable rate. And if his three relief appearances are removed from the equation, it's a 1.77 WHIP (5.7 BB/9).

Another looming time bomb with him is heavy regression on his 0.3 HR/9. Currently, he has a 35% GB% that is in line with his historic minor-league numbers. Usually, a 35% GB% means a pitcher has an HR/9 in the low 1.00s. The combination of walks and home runs could easily push his ERA into the 5.00 range. Stay away.

Keegan Thompson (132 NFBC Drops, -11% at CBS)

Editor's Note: Expect renewed interest in Thompson after he shut down Atlanta on Friday afternoon, striking out nine over six scoreless innings.

While Thompson's overall stats seem fine, he had mostly struggled as a starter prior to Friday's game (6.26 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 1.61 WHIP heading into Friday).

I looked around for any possible changes. His velocity was down just slightly. He moved away from his fastball a bit (44% to 36%), with all his other pitches picking up the slack. His biggest issue -- at least prior to Friday -- was not being able to find the strike zone (54% Zone% to 44%). It's almost like when he throws strikes, he performs better.

Personally, I might only trust him as a two-inning reliever. His ups and downs are difficult to predict.

Kyle Bradish (73 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

Bradish has some underlying skills I like. The three main stats I consider with pitchers -- strikeouts, walks and groundballs -- have him on par with Robbie Ray.

Name: K/9, BB/9, GB%
Bradish: 9.2, 3.6, 44%
Ray: 9.4, 3.2, 38%

Bradish has given up a ton of home runs (2.1 HR/9), putting his 6.86 ERA way over his 3.94 xFIP. It's not just home runs being an issue; he also has a .374 BABIP.

His struggles come back to his 95-mph cutter being too predictable and hittable. It is the only pitch he can throw for strikes. It has a 58% Zone% while the highest Zone% for any of his other pitches is 41%. Overall, batters have a 1.061 OPS against the cutter.

Another issue is that besides his cutter and slider (18% SwStr%), his changeup and curveball don't generate many swings and misses (<10% SwStr% for both). He's basically, just a two-pitch guy. This can be seen with his ERA going from 4.66 to 8.27 to 9.95 for each subsequent time through the batting order.

I think Bradish has a few decent traits, but he's missing that average or better third pitch that he can throw for strikes.

Relievers

Cole Sulser (70 NFBC Drops, -1% at CBS) and Dylan Floro (68 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

The Marlins' bullpen has been in flux for a few weeks, but it looks like Tanner Scott has emerged as the closer. Both Sulser and Floro were given a shot at the job but failed to secure it.

For Sulser, he seemed to have the closer's job at the end of May, but back-to-back blown saves took him out of the mix. Currently, he's on the IL, so he's not getting a chance to redeem himself.

As for Floro, he was the favorite to win the job to start the season, but a shoulder injury kept him out for a month. He struggled in his first two appearances back, allowing five earned in two innings. In the 11 appearances (10 IP) since those two, he has a 3.48 ERA with just five strikeouts.

The main reason for the drop in strikeouts is his fastball velocity dropping from 93.7 mph to 91.7 mph.

At some point, one or both might get another shot at saves, but it's difficult to envision either holding the job long term.