MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 19)

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little rash. Some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Hitters

Myles Straw (52 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

Last season, Straw looked to have found some power (four homers, 109.8 mph maxEV) to go with his speed (30 steals). The hope that the power would continue into 2022 is all but dead. He hasn't hit a home run yet this season and just has a .055 ISO. Teams are giving him no respect by throwing him fastballs 60 percent of the time (highest in the league, min 300 PA) and throwing 56 percent of pitches in the strike zone (again the league high, 300 min PA). Finally, center fielders play him at 316 feet or just the seventh percentile. 

Sometimes the lack of power from these rabbits can be offset with a decent batting average. Last season, Straw hit .271. That didn't last, as he owns a .206 average (.233 xBA) this season. 

There is no hot streak to buy into since he's just hitting .187/.202/.242 since the All-Star break. I might tell someone to keep him around for the steals, but he's just had six total since June 1st. Justifiable drop. 

Nick Gordon (51 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

This drop bothers me. Gordon has been a good hitter (.276/.321/.424 and five homers) while providing some speed (six steals). Additionally, he's been on a heater. Since the All-Star break, he has an .882 OPS. 

The key improvement for me is that his power is up from a .136 ISO last year to a .186 ISO this season. This offseason he had a food deficiency fixed, so he's now able to bulk up.

Gordon missed the entire 2020 season, as COVID-19 sidelined him for most of the summer and chronic gastritis made it difficult to keep weight on once he was finally feeling better. At one point the 6-foot Gordon weighed just 153 pounds. Doctors struggled to find solutions, and through the combination of diet and medication, Gordon was eventually able to start eating normally again.

He quickly put on more than 20 pounds last year, and this offseason, relieved to be able to eat and work out without complications, Gordon focused on adding strength.

Projections won't take his diet into account and will under-project him next season.

One factor that might be seen as an issue is that his playing time has been erratic. To start the season, playing time was hard to come by, but he's started 13 of the last 15 games. He's taken over the left-field job and should be a consideration in all leagues. 

Max Kepler (42 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

I've never been the highest on Kepler because he's struggled against lefties, with his career .635 OPS against southpaws trailing his .789 OPS against righties by a wide margin. Every season, he seems to end up on the strong side of a platoon, limiting his counting stats. I feel he should be streamed, but for some reason, other fantasy managers feel he deserves to be a lineup mainstay. Maybe the times are changing. 

Kepler has been his normal self with nine homers, three steals and a .227 batting average. He's been extremely cold in August with a just .253 OPS, and those who ride hot and cold streaks will likely have dropped him with that production. The drops aren't from a lack of playing time, with Kepler starting in nine of 10 games since coming off the injured list.

For me, this insight about just one hitter suggests that small-sample struggles might be getting more weight than years of platoon splits. 

Jo Adell (40 NFBC Drops, -3% at CBS)

Right now, Adell is dealing with a finger injury, but the injury had yet to happen when the NFBC drops occurred. He's been a major disappointment, hitting .227/.276/.356 with a 36 percent strikeout rate. For fantasy purposes, he's on pace for 14 homers and 10 steals per 600 plate appearances. The power and speed might play, but the issue is that he's not helping the major league team with his below-replacement .632 OPS. 

He has hit so poorly that he has more plate appearances at Triple-A (180) than in the majors (174). He was able to get to more power in the minors, posting a .348 ISO compared to just .129 at the MLB level, but he still struggled with strikeouts, whiffing 31 percent of the time. 

I'm not surprised at all with the Adell drops. I'm more surprised he was added in the first place. 

Starters

Chris Flexen (99 NFBC Drops, -17% at CBS)

I heard Flexen was headed to the bullpen and the drops are justified. I just wanted to figure out why it was Flexen who was dropped from the rotation, since he seems to be fine.

With the addition of Luis Castillo, the Mariners' rotation is six strong, and it seems like Flexen drew the short straw. Most rotations could use a starter with a 3.86 ERA (see Toronto), even if his ERA estimators are at least a run higher. It's been the second year in a row Flexen has beaten his ERA estimators, as he finished with a 3.61 ERA and 4.56 xFIP in 2021. 

After a quick look, the issue is obvious: walks. Here are his monthly walk rates alongside his K%-BB%.

That isn't a trend anyone wants to see as they make a playoff push. 

Yusei Kikuchi (84 NFBC Drops, -8% at CBS)

I'm amazed fantasy managers thought it was a good idea to roster Kikuchi for his two-step last week. It came against Baltimore and Cleveland, but Kikuchi was horrible up to that point, struggling to a 4.86 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, and 5.2 BB/9. He was simply walking too many batters, and it was tanking his WHIP and ERA. 

In the first start, he threw five innings, allowing five earned runs with four strikeouts and three walks. He was so bad that Toronto pushed back his next start to Monday, where he got rocked again, throwing three innings and allowing three earned runs while striking out three and walking three. There just has to be some bar below which it's not a good idea to go chasing the two-start week. 

Keegan Thompson (64 NFBC Drops, -7% at CBS)

Editor's note: Thompson was placed on the 15-day injured list with lower-back tightness Saturday.

Thompson also seemed to be rostered for his two starts against Washington and at Cincinnati. The first start was nearly perfect, as he earned a win and allowed just one run in six innings. He got lit up in the second outing, giving up four runs and walking three batters while failing to complete two innings. Any start in Cincinnati could go that way. 

On the surface, Thompson seems at least streamable, with a 3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.8 K/9.  Eight elite relief appearances (1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) are making his overall stats look better, however. As a starter, Thompson has a 4.46 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, and 7.6 K/9. 

Additionally, there are no signs of improvement, as he has a 4.99 xFIP in the second half as his strikeout rate has dropped to 6.1 K/9. He's just not been able to keep up his fastball velocity.

He's likely just wearing down as the season goes on as he transitions to being a starter.

Mitch White (47 NFBC Drops, -2% at CBS)

With Kikuchi (see above) and Jose Berrios (5.61 ERA) both struggling, White will get a shot in Toronto's rotation. He is facing the Yankees on Saturday, so that tough matchup might be part of the reason for his drops, but he's scheduled to face the Angels next week. 

On the season, White has been decent, posting a 3.72 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP and 7.2 K/9 overall, with similar numbers as a starter. Since joining the Blue Jays, he has mixed results, recording a 3.86 ERA, 5.23 xFIP, 4.8 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. Not great, but for a fantasy team desperate for wins, he could be streamable. 

I do see some upside with the changeup that he's been working in around five to 10 percent of the time. So far the pitch has performed great, with a 13 percent swinging strike rate and a 60 percent groundball rate. It could be a great pairing to go with his slider (17 percent swinging strike rate, 33 percent groundball rate) and could help push his strikeouts up.