This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Tuesday April 1st
Previous article 3-0 (+2.82 units)
Season 9-9 (-3.09 units)
If you caught this article yesterday, I alluded to analyzing the slate and recognizing all of the 4th and 5th starters pitching, which would lead to a lot of runs being scored. We got that in almost every game and hit another 3-0 day. Today's slate is a mixed bag as we have some #1 starters going but also some 5th starters. Take note of what games have the biggest pitching mismatches and lean on those F5 bets.
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Observations for today's slate
Road Favorites - Twins -165 at White Sox, Mets -160 at Marlins, Rangers -142 at Reds, Cubs -132 at Athletics, Giants -118 at Astros
Home Favorites (Largest) - Rays -170 vs. Pirates, Padres -170 vs. Guardians, Mariners -167 vs. Tigers
Totals - Rangers/Reds 9.0, Tigers/Mariners 6.5
Line Movement (most of the favorites have moved -5 to -10 on the moneyline today but nothing significant so far)
Mets -132 to -160
Tigers/Mariners TOTAL from 7.0 to 6.5
Best MLB Bets Today
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners Picks
This game has the lowest total on the board at 6.5 and rightfully so with both offenses, the ballpark, and an ace pitcher in Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert is one of the best home pitchers in baseball, as his ballpark is a huge edge for him. The Mariners should be able to get some runs off Casey Mize, but this game will most likely not have many runs. Gilbert looked strong in his first start against the A's, going 7 innings with 8 strikeouts, 1 earned run, 2 hits, and 0 walks.
As much as I think the Mariners take this game around 4-2 or 3-1, I just do not want to lay -1.5 runs in a game with a 6.5 or 7.0 total, so I looked at -1.0 runs on FanDuel instead of laying -167 on the moneyline.
MLB Best Bet: Mariners -1.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -117)
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays Picks
Handicapping Rays home games this season will take on a different approach as they are not playing in Tropicana Field due to the storm damages. That park was known to be an extreme pitchers' park, and we are not quite sure what Steinbrenner Field will bring. This will explain the 8.5 or even 9.0 run total we have in this game.
Shane Baz pitched well in his return last season after missing all of 2023. His 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP proved that, but his strikeout rate was only 21 percent while having a walk rate of 8.5 percent.
Thomas Harrington is getting his first start in the big leagues, but his pedigree is pretty solid with 114 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2024, recording a 2.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 112:18 K:BB.
Baz should be able to limit this Pirates offense, and I would not trust Harrington the second time through the Rays lineup. He might have a short leash, as could Baz, which would put this game in the hands of the bullpens.
MLB Best Bet: Rays -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +116)
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New York Mets at Miami Marlins Picks
Kodai Senga gets the nod tonight in his first start of the season after missing just about all of 2024. I would expect him to be on a pitch count in the 70-80 range.
Sandy Alcantara missed all of 2024 and was so-so in his first start at home against the Pirates with 7 strikeouts in 4.2 innings. But he did allow 4 walks to one of the weakest lineups in baseball, along with 2 earned runs.
We saw this Mets offense break out Monday night with a 10-4 win. Ultimately, I think this game turns to the bullpens and I will take the Mets' bats over the Marlins pen with another solid performance for the New York offense. The Mets' bullpen has been one of the best in baseball through fourgames.
MLB Best Bet: Mets OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Mariners -1.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -117)
- Rays -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +116)
- Mets OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- 3 TEAM DOG PARLAY - Angels/Nationals/Royals for 0.25 unit to win 2.71 units (DraftKings +985)
