This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Friday, Sept. 15
Season: 99-120-1 -47.22 units
Prior Article: 1-5 -4.07 units
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Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
There was a huge move on Justin Steele for National League Cy Young futures and he is now +200 after opening the season at +10000. Steele just faced these Diamondbacks last Saturday and struck out six batters over seven innings. He has hit this prop in eight straight with a 10.8 K/9.
The Cubs are 9-1 SU in Steele's last 10 starts and we get them at a great price on the road. This money line did open at -125 and has moved to -135. Another metric I look at is where the money is being bet and 91 percent of the money is on the under in this game, which should correlate with Steele's OVER strikeout prop.
MLB Best Bets for Cubs at Diamondbacks
- Justin Steele OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (BetMGM -120)
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -135)
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Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
When it comes to September baseball, there are ways to find soft odds and value. Taking starting pitchers on bad teams is one of those. Jake Irvin has been a solid pitcher over his last nine starts with a 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and has gone at least six innings in six of those starts.
On the other side, Wade Miley has a 3.30 ERA on the season and has allowed three runs or less in 16 out of 20 starts. It is hard taking UNDER at this point in the season when pitching is gassed, but in this spot we have two solid pitchers who are not "household" names giving value on the total.
MLB Best Bets Nationals at Brewers
- Jake Irvin OVER 15.5 outs for 1 unit (DraftKings +125)
- Nationals/Brewers UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -112)
Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians
Lucas Giolito has been a broken pitcher since July 18, with an 8.06 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. The Rangers have had one of the best offenses in baseball all season and have gone OVER in nine out of their last 10 games (16-4 last 20). I am truly baffled by this team total on the Rangers at 4.5 as the game total is also just 7.5.
MLB Best Bets at
- Rangers ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Rangers OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)