This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB NLCS Picks for
Tuesday, Oct. 17
Season: 118-143-2 -53.82 units
Prior Article: 2-2 -0.40 units
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Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
As we saw in 2022 and now in 2023, this Phillies team is built to peak in September and the post-season. They jumped out to a 5-0 lead and held on to win at home, 5-3, in Game 1. The Phillies are going back to their second ace in Aaron Nola while the Diamondbacks are starting Merrill Kelly.
Nola was much better at home versus on the road with a 3.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9 versus a 5.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.7 HR/9. The projected lineup for the Dbacks is just 9-for-50 against Nola (.180 batting average). Nola went 5.2 innings and 7.0 innings in his two playoff starts with 12 strikeouts, two walks, nine hits and two earned runs.
Kelly has pitched well, but still walks too many batters and it will get him in trouble against the Phillies.
The Phillies have won seven out of their last eight. They are 11-1 in their last 12 at home and 11-2 in their last 13 playoff games at home. Nola went over five strikeouts in 12 out of 16 home starts. The Diamondbacks only had four hits in Game 1. Bryce Harper has eight walks in seven games and Trea Turner is hitting .400 in 28 at-bats in the postseason.
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MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Phillies
- Phillies -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Dbacks UNDER 3.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Bryce Harper OVER 0.5 walks for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -125)
- Trea Turner OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Aaron Nola OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -120)
