MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Bets for Sunday, July 31

MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Bets for Sunday, July 31

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Picks Today: MLB Best Bets for Sunday, July 31

Last Article's Record: 3-0, +3.20 units

Season Record: 55-55, +1.87 units

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees  

Jordan Montgomery to record a Win, +120 (DraftKings)

Montgomery comes into this game off a rough outing against the Mets where he failed to make it out of the third inning despite throwing 71 pitches, and the Yankees have somehow lost each of his last five starts. That's a bit misleading as prior to that start, he had gone four consecutive starts allowing three runs or less - including two or less in three of four starts. Montgomery gets a soft matchup vs. the lowly Royals, who are now missing Andrew Benintendi and just yesterday got Bobby Witt back after a hamstring issue - which figures to slow him down on the basepaths. Also note that before that Mets outing, Montgomery had logged the required five-plus innings in 12 consecutive starts. With the Yankees F5 -0.5 line listed at -175, I think +120 for a few extra innings (covered by one of the best bullpens in baseball) represents more than fair value, especially with the Yankees boasting a robust 40-12 home record - not to mention being 30-9 overall vs. sub-.500 teams. Go Yankees.

MLB Best Bets for Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees

Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves -1.5, -110 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (FanDuel)

Max Fried has been outstanding this year with a 2.73 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while averaging close to a strikeout per inning. Also note the Braves have covered the run line in eight of their last nine wins he's started. They also list a 42-20 record vs. sub-.500 teams, and it doesn't hurt Arizona just traded away one of their best hitters by sending David Peralta to the Rays. While Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has been quite sharp of late, it's also worth noting he allowed six earned runs against the Braves in their most recent meeting last September. Good spot for Atlanta to pick up another win today, as they now sit just three games behind the division-leading Mets.

MLB Best Bets for Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

  • Atlanta Braves -1.5, -110 (FanDuel)

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates

Aaron Nola over 7.5 strikeouts, -112 (FanDuel)

Aaron Nola has been outstanding on the road this year posting a 2.30 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his away starts to go with 78 strikeouts in 70.1 innings. He now faces the Pirates, who have been surging up the overall team strikeout board and now rank second-worst in MLB behind only the Angels. In fact, we should note that in the first three games of this series, Zack Wheeler, Bailey Falter, and Ranger Suarez each recorded eight Ks. Also keep in mind what I mentioned last Sunday where lineups tend to be a little softer on Sundays as a getaway day with umpires perhaps trying to move the game along so that everyone can get to the airport a little earlier. Favorable spot for Nola to hang up some strikeouts today.

MLB Best Bets for Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

New York Mets F5 -0.5, +124 at Miami Marlins (FanDuel)

Mets starter Taijuan Walker has been great this year and just pitched seven scoreless innings versus the Marlins a few starts ago. In fact, he's faced them three times in 2022 with New York taking the other two starts and lost the scoreless one. Obviously, Marlins starter Pablo Lopez is a fine pitcher in his own right, but Walker has been slightly better this season while Lopez has experienced trouble against the Mets giving up seven earned runs across 10.1 innings. Throw in the Mets superior offense, and +124 looks like excellent value on them holding a lead after five innings.

MLB Player Props for New York Mets at Miami Marlins

  • New York Mets F5 -0.5, +124 (FanDuel)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Jordan Montgomery to record a Win, +120 (DraftKings)
  • Atlanta Braves -1.5, -110 (FanDuel)
  • Aaron Nola over 7.5 strikeouts, -112 (FanDuel)
  • New York Mets F5 -0.5, +124 (FanDuel)

Visit RotoWire all season long for exclusive sports betting picks from our group of handicappers with their expert MLB picks each day of the campaign. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds and available player props, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Walter Hand
Walter is a former Las Vegas oddsmaker, and longtime successful fantasy player in both football and baseball.
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