This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Playoffs Betting: Expert Picks for NL Wild Card Game 1, Brewers vs. Diamondbacks
It is playoff time, kids! The Wildcard Round gets underway today with some very compelling match ups. First, I have to say I LOVE the MLB playoff format. The single-game play-in was a silly concept for a sport where the preparation and strategy is entirely based around multi-game series. Now, we have 3-game series hosted by teams that earned it over a grueling 162 games, as it should be.
To level-set so everyone knows what they are getting into, I was 29-37 on the year for my MLB work that was split between Best Bet and Game Focus articles, but ended +0.51 units on the year, which I will take every time. Baseball is a tricky game with many variables and winning seasons are hard to come by. Like the Dodgers, I got hot in the second half of the season, going 18-14 for +7.40 units to get us back to profitability. Today, I'm focusing on Game 1 of the NL Wildcard series taking place in Brew Town.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at 
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers ace Corbin Burnes takes the hill for Milwaukee and faces off with D-Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt, making his first playof start. This obvious mismatch has resulted in the Brewers being a -180 favorite at DraftKings, and rightfully so. The Snakes had to work their way into the playoffs down the stretch and, in the process, had to burn Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly (the likely Games 2 and 3 starters). Even on cruise control, the Brewers finished strong down the stretch, going 6-4 and outscoring their opponents by 17 runs in that stretch. Milwaukee's strength is their pitching (NL-leading 3.74 team ERA) but they received a big blow to their rotation with the news that Brandon Woodruff will not be available for this series. I believe the Brewers (Corbin Burnes in particular) will rally around that new for today's game and dig deep to get this win. With Gallen and Kelly lurking, this is as close to a must-win Game 1 as it gets. I cannot advise taking any team at -180, especially in the playoffs, but I do like the Run Line here at +115.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Game 1 Best Bet:
- Brewers -1.5 (+115) @ FanDuel
The batter v pitcher history in this match-up is quite one-sided. Carlos Santana is the only Brewer bat that has faced Pfaadt while the D-Backs have amassed 82 ABs against Burnes. In those ABs, Burnes has 17 Ks against only 20 hits, so he has certainly had the upper hand. Burnes also comes in hot, having registered zero or one earned runs in four of his last six starts. I have no doubt he is going to come in firing for his buddy Woodruff and will look to set the tone for the entire series. The Brewers inexperience against Pfaadt will keep them from going completely off, but they will do just enough to win and cover the run line above. This one has a 3-1 or 4-1 Brewers victory written all over it, and it just so happens the under has the value here. I like it.
NL Wild Card Expert Pick for Game 1
- Diamondbacks/Brewers UNDER 8 (+105) @ BetMGM
The player props for this one are very interesting and playoff games make them even harder to predict. Who will embrace the playoff pressure and who will crumble? Deciphering that piece might be the most important part of this exercise. To that end, I'm going with a man who has "been there, done that" so many times, is the one Brewer that has faced Pfaadt before, and happens to be the hottest bat in Milwaukee's lineup: Carlos Santana. Santana has settled nicely into the three slot in the Brewers lineup and has produced an RBI in five of his last eight games. He is hitting .325 over his last 10 games with four doubles, a triple, and two dingers in that stretch. Currently, I only see his Total Base prop number at 0.5 and his over has no value. If you can find a 1.5 for him with plus money on the over, I'd be all over that. I also like the value of his HR prop at +425 (@ DK). For this article, just like playoff baseball, I'm going to dial down the risk and go for the solid value play, and that is Santana with 1+ RBI.
MLB Best Player Prop Tonight
- Carlos Santana 1+ RBI (+185) @ DraftKings
MLB Game Focus Best Bets: Diamondbacks @ Brewers
Here's a recap of my Game Focus Best Bets for the Diamondbacks @ Brewers on Tuesday, October 3:
- Brewers -1.5 (+115) @ FanDuel
- Diamondbacks/Brewers UNDER 8 (+105) @ BetMGM
- Carlos Santana 1+ RBI (+185) @ DraftKings
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the MLB odds page on RotoWire.
