This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Wednesday, October 2
- Year-to-Date Record: 167-169-1
- Prior Article: 4-1 ( +2.55 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Make sure you don't place any bets on the best online sportsbooks without knowing what the latest and most competitive betting MLB odds are.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Detroit Tigers 
at Houston Astros 
Tarik Skubal shut the Astros down yesterday, but they were one line drive away from tying up the game in the ninth inning. The Astros' backs are against the wall and they have one of their strongest starting pitchers going in Hunter Brown. Brown has been one of "my guys" most of the year.
Reese Olson has only pitched three times since September 16th. Across 9.1 innings, he has a 6.75 ERA. I think the Astros jump all over him early and often. After Olson, we could be looking at Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe and Tyler Holton.
Astros' -175 Moneyline is just too rich for me. As much as I love the starting pitching matchup for Houston, I am not about to lay -1.5 runs in this spot either as I think the Tigers will be able to score some runs.
If I were to do anything on the Astros here, it would be on the run line F5 because of the huge edge in starting pitching with Brown against a bullpen game for the Tigers. I see a lot of runs in this game today, especially on the Houston side, and look for them to tie up this series.
MLB Picks for Tigers at Astros
- Astros -0.5 F5 for 1 Unit (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Astros Team Total Over 2.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals 
at Baltimore Orioles 
I was locked in on the under for this game yesterday as it featured two stud pitchers and two struggling offenses. I think we see very few runs in this game as well with Seth Lugo against Zach Eflin. Lugo has been solid all year and better on the road with a 2.62 ERA versus 3.36 at home. Eflin has also been good this year. He has a 2.60 ERA since July 28 after being traded from the Rays to the Orioles.
The Royals have just a 75 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. Even if the Orioles do get to Lugo, I do not think both teams are putting up 4+ runs.
MLB Picks for Royals at Orioles
- Royals/Orioles Under 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-112 at BetRivers)
New York Mets 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
I was on the Brewers team total over yesterday. It looked like it was going to fly over 3.5 runs, but landed on four runs. My gut was telling me to not get behind Freddy Peralta in a big spot. It paid off as the Mets won 8-4.
The Brewers come back with Frankie Montas against Mets pitcher Sean Manaea. Montas is not a good pitcher, which speaks of how some teams can get away with bad pitching in the regular season but not in the postseason. Since August 2nd, Montas recorded a 4.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9 (2.7 at home).
I think the Mets keep it going on the scoreboard here and go over their team total of 3.5 runs.
MLB Picks for Mets at Brewers
- Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves 
at San Diego Padres 
This was the toughest game to handicap as we have two solid starting pitchers going against each other. The Braves face elimination and the Padres struggle against left-handed pitching.
Joe Musgrove has been lights out since coming back from injury on August 12th – 2.15 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9. Max Fried has also been strong since August 26 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. If Musgrove has a short leash, the Padres' bullpen is rested and one of the best in baseball.
The F5 total of 3.5 runs is tough. All it takes is one home run with a runner on to blow it up, so look at the full game total for some insurance.
MLB Picks for Braves at Padres
- Braves/Padres Under 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-135 at Fanatics)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Astros -0.5 F5 for 1 Unit (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Astros Team Total Over 2.5 Runs for 1 Unit (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Royals/Orioles Under 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-112 at BetRivers)
- Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Braves/Padres Under 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-135 at Fanatics)
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