Mound Musings: Enjoying the First Year Player Draft

It's always a highlight of the season. Draft day brings an infusion of new, and hopefully exciting, arms into professional baseball and into the spotlight for fantasy baseball junkies like us. I settled in with ice cold beverages and snacks, notebook in hand, and a list of pitchers on whom I wanted to keep tabs. Where would they go? What would the film clips show? What would other analysts have to say? What a night! Obviously, this is focused on keeper and dynasty formats, but the top guys will be on redraft fantasy draft boards sooner than you think. So, let's take a closer look:

Some Overall Observations on Draft Day

This was an incredibly interesting draft, especially because a handful of the most sought after players were two-way players. They have been rare in the past, and never (that I can recall) were there players who had the skill set to warrant high first-round consideration as both a pitcher and a position player. In 2017, there were three who were considered top 50 talent. And, while not eligible for this draft, arguably the best player not in the major leagues, Shohei Otani of the Nippon Ham Fighters (Japan), is a star two-way player rumored to be coming to MLB next season. This trend – and I think there's a good chance we will see more pitcher/position player draft picks moving forward – is a true game changer. It will be interesting to see which path teams choose to pursue with these guys. Will they consider letting a young prospect do both?

Please note, I certainly give a close look to high schoolers but there are reasons I spend a slightly higher percentage of my time evaluating college arms. Because they are older and have often been engaged in pitching within programs that offer top caliber coaching, they tend to be much more refined. The raw skills found in a high school star are transferrable in most cases, but the college arms are closer to being finished products, and with the dollars involved today, how soon a draft choice can contribute is a big factor. If you have a high 90s fastball and you can consistently throw it for strikes in high school, you will probably be pretty successful some day, but the college arms are more likely to be useful, maybe as early as later this season or at least relatively soon. Keep that in mind. Some of these guys will be fantasy relevant before you know it.

Overall, I would say this draft had a lot of raw pitching talent but wasn't really loaded with the elite level arms we have seen in the past few years. There's a good chance several of these guys will develop, but I don't recall so many pitchers being discussed as both early-round picks and possibly being destined for the bullpen. Late inning relievers with exceptional stuff and solid credentials have always been of interest to teams, but they have always been early-round exceptions. Teams drafted this year and last with the belief that many of the top choices might never start at the major league level. That's another game changer. Shorter starts and more reliance on bullpens is catching on.

Here are a few high ceiling arms I think you should add to your watch list:

• Was Hunter Greene the first pitcher off the board? The second overall pick is one of those two-way guys, and he has exceptional skills as a shortstop to go with a high school arm that has already touched 102 miles per hour. The Reds declared him a pitcher when they made the selection, and I'm pretty sure that's where his future lies. It's theoretically possible that he could play the field when not on the mound, but it would be much more likely to happen if he could serve as the designated hitter or maybe even play at first base (another two-way possibility, Brendan McKay, was taken fourth overall as a first baseman by the Rays) but not at a pressure position like shortstop. Word is the Rays may allow McKay to try pitching and hitting. Greene has that cannon, an early feel for four pitches and maturity far beyond his years. With his physical attributes and presence, he has the tools to be very good in a few years.

• Even with his big arm, I'm not sure Greene is the ace of the 2017 draft class. The Padres took southpaw Mackenzie Gore with the third overall pick, and I love this guy. It's a little unusual for me to get overly excited about a high school arm in the draft – Jameson Taillon stands out as one the most recent – but Gore has so many well-developed skills, I have trouble remaining calm. His fastball already sits in the mid 90s, but he also owns a potentially devastating curve with an impressive changeup (for his age). Also of note, I really like his deceptive motion featuring a high leg kick. He is aggressive in the strike zone, pitches downhill, and, despite that leg kick, Gore can already repeat his motion. This season he logged 158 strikeouts in 74 innings, while walking — are you ready for this — five.

• For the third guy on my watch list, you have to drop a little further in the draft. Another big lefty, Trevor Rogers posted numbers similar to Gore's last season, but the Marlin's choice at 13 did it against high schoolers in Carlsbad, New Mexico, probably completely over-matching his competition. He's 6'6" and features a hot (at times) fastball and a sweeping slider, but his other secondary stuff will need work. He's definitely a dynasty project, but Miami does well in developing young pitching talent, and with his build, he could eventually turn into a workhorse rotation arm. Keep an eye on him.

• My top three pitchers have one thing in common – they are all coming out of high school. While there was depth in the college arms, I felt most of the top talent was kids. That said, the Braves took a solid college arm with the fifth overall pick in what appears to be a developing organizational plan. Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt) might be the closest pitcher to the major leagues, and with a new ballpark coupled with a deep minor league system, he appears to fit well with Atlanta's timeline. I don't think he has the upside of the younger pitchers in this draft, but he should be a decent middle-to-back-of-the rotation starter. Sean Newcomb is already up, while even higher ceiling pitchers like Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, and Touki Touissant are winding their way through the minor leagues, so a rendezvous in late 2018 or 2019 seems plausible.

• I'll close out my list of top draft arms with yet another high school pitcher. The Pirates drafted Shane Baz with the 12th overall pick. Therein lies a key to his chances at success. The Pirates have pitching coach Ray Searage, and exposure to Searage often equates to forward movement in aspiring pitchers. Don't get me wrong, Baz has plenty on his side to suggest a good future but some organizations just improve the chances. He features a solid fastball, with a competent slider and curve, but he is especially effective with his cutter. He reminds scouts of Corey Kluber which is another plus, but he is committed to TCU so hopefully there won't be any signability problems.

• There were a lot of other pitchers worth monitoring – guys like J.B. Bukauskas (15th overall to the Astros) who was considered to be another quality college arm, southpaw David Peterson (20th overall to the Mets) who has been compared to James Paxton and could be fairly quick to the majors, and a favorite sleeper of mine, Landon Leach (37th overall to the Twins) who is a less experienced high school talent from Ontario, Canada, with a lively arm and a fastball that runs in on right-handed hitters.

• The Astros are certainly one of the best teams in baseball this year, but with Lance McCullers going on the disabled list this week, they now have their top four starters out of action. Hopefully the arms will start coming back soon, but like so many teams this season, pitching injuries are a huge obstacle to overcome.

• I was looking forward to watching the Brewers' Brandon Woodruff make his major league debut last Tuesday, but he was scratched just before the game with a tight hamstring and subsequently placed on the disabled list. We may have to wait a while longer, but I think he might have enough to be fantasy relevant.

• His command is still a bit erratic, but Oakland's Sean Manaea is clearly learning the fine art of pitching. I have always liked his electric stuff, and if he continues to progress as he has early this season, he could be a fantasy difference-maker. There will probably be bumps, but they could be few and far between.

• I continue to be impressed with Cincinnati's Amir Garrett. He still strolls close to the edge trying to find his release point, leading to higher pitch counts, walks and pitches left in the middle of the plate, but he is so athletic and has such poise on the mound, I think he's going to eventually be a good one.

• Don't be too quick to write off Cleveland's Danny Salazar. He's obviously a hot mess right now, and he did just hit the disabled list with undefined "shoulder soreness" but he has also rung up 77 strikeouts in 55 innings. This may be a veiled attempt to smooth out his mechanics. Track his progress closely.

• The Diamondbacks' Taijuan Walker made his return from the disabled list on Wednesday after missing almost a month with a blister problem. There was a little rust, but overall he looked sharp. I have been skeptical of him because of so much inconsistency, but I think his new team is figuring him out.
  

The Nationals bullpen is officially a disaster zone with Koda Glover on the disabled list after suffering a (hopefully) minor back injury. With no one really ready to step up, it is difficult to predict save chances. Maybe Erick Fedde will get a call? I really think the A's might start looking to Sean Doolittle for at least match-up save chances. His altered delivery seems to be helping, and Santiago Casilla hasn't exactly been lights out. It appears Felipe Rivero will get every chance to keep the endgame job in Pittsburgh and he has the tools to make it work. The Yankees are hoping Aroldis Chapman makes it through a rehab game on Friday that could lead to his activation on Sunday. After a couple of surprise Brad Hand sightings, Brandon Maurer has settled the closer issue in San Diego. Hopefully he can avoid too many non-save situations. Surprisingly, the Brewers DFA'd Neftali Feliz. With so many bullpens in freefall, somebody will surely believe they can get him back on track.