Mound Musings: My 2024 “Home” League Pitching Staff

Mound Musings: My 2024 “Home” League Pitching Staff

This article is part of our Mound Musings series.

Readers often ask about my own pitching staffs in the various fantasy leagues in which I compete. So, having just recently completed this year's auction in my primary or "home" league, I thought I would take this opportunity to discuss the pitching staff with which I will go to war. I will add that I typically focus very heavily on a few arms, so many of these guys pitch on several of my teams.

A little background:

This league has been in existence for a very long time. It will be my 33rd season, and most of the league's managers have been members for 20-plus years. It started in my hometown, but managers have gradually dispersed all over North America, and we usually all come back for draft day. However, I continue to deal with mobility issues (getting old still sucks), and travel has become a challenge for some of the far-flung managers, so we hold the draft online. These guys are savvy and experienced, and they are pretty familiar with the tendencies of the other managers. It's a challenging group, but that makes it fun!

With 15 teams, it is a mixed league keeper with deep rosters (33 players per team with no minor league or disabled list slots). Standard scoring categories, five hitting and five pitching, with a lineup consisting of 12 hitters and nine pitchers (with a minimum of five qualified starting pitchers and two qualified relief pitchers). One thing that makes roster management more challenging –

Readers often ask about my own pitching staffs in the various fantasy leagues in which I compete. So, having just recently completed this year's auction in my primary or "home" league, I thought I would take this opportunity to discuss the pitching staff with which I will go to war. I will add that I typically focus very heavily on a few arms, so many of these guys pitch on several of my teams.

A little background:

This league has been in existence for a very long time. It will be my 33rd season, and most of the league's managers have been members for 20-plus years. It started in my hometown, but managers have gradually dispersed all over North America, and we usually all come back for draft day. However, I continue to deal with mobility issues (getting old still sucks), and travel has become a challenge for some of the far-flung managers, so we hold the draft online. These guys are savvy and experienced, and they are pretty familiar with the tendencies of the other managers. It's a challenging group, but that makes it fun!

With 15 teams, it is a mixed league keeper with deep rosters (33 players per team with no minor league or disabled list slots). Standard scoring categories, five hitting and five pitching, with a lineup consisting of 12 hitters and nine pitchers (with a minimum of five qualified starting pitchers and two qualified relief pitchers). One thing that makes roster management more challenging – picking up a free agent requires a "move" usually from a player being sent down or put on the injured list. You can then release that player and pick up someone on the waiver wire (order is determined by reverse order of the current standings). Since you probably won't want to cut a key player who goes on the IL for a short time, you really need versatility and some productivity on your bench.

So, let's look at my pitching staff, and discuss my thoughts on who and why:

  • SP1 Kodai Senga – It's a keeper league and I am fairly happy with the nucleus of my starting rotation, but I felt I needed to keep one "pricey" top-of-the-rotation starter, and Senga was the guy. He just kept getting better as the season wore on last year, and by season's end I felt he was top 10 or at least very close. He walked a few too many, but the movement on his pitches, especially that incredible forkball, allowed him to pile up strikeouts and escape jams. The biggest concern is a shoulder strain – always unpredictable – that will cost him starts at the beginning of the year. Hopefully the shoulder problems won't turn into a chronic thing, or I'm in trouble.
  • SP2 Carlos Rodon – Rodon was on a roll in 2021 and 2022, but he suffered a forearm injury in spring training last year that derailed his season. He made just 14 starts (64 innings), and while his velocity seemed fine, his off-speed stuff lacked sharpness and his command was spotty. Reports indicate he is healthy (and in much better game shape) this spring, and the movement is back. With Gerrit Cole expected to miss the early part of the season, Rodon will be counted upon to assume the top spot in the Yankees' rotation. If everything is back in sync, he is capable of that, and I need the same with Senga on the shelf.
  • SP3 Grayson Rodriguez – Rodriguez is one of several on this staff who have occupied the penthouse suite of my elite kids list. He has worked through injuries that delayed his development but he put it all together the last couple years, going 7-4 in his first MLB season with a 4.35 ERA, decent ratios and a solid strikeout rate. I don't think he has come close to peaking yet, so he gets the No. 3 designation on this year's staff, headed for No. 1. It's funny, he has accomplished so much on a team that is grabbing the spotlight, yet it sometimes seems he is a bit overlooked in fantasy circles. The Orioles will likely watch his workload, but he should still provide significant value.
  • SP4 Yu Darvish – Darvish was another on my all-disappointment team in 2023. He just never seemed to get into a groove, finishing 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA, and perhaps most disheartening, a 1.30 WHIP. He is so much fun to watch. Using different speeds and movement, he has about a dozen pitches in his arsenal. Typically, he will find four or five of those that are working on a particular day, and that's what we have on the menu. In 2023 it just didn't always happen. This year, he hasn't given up much, but he is still struggling with command. Too many balls, getting behind in counts and elevated pitch counts all point to trouble in the future, so he has to get back in sync.
  • SP5 Jack Flaherty – You may note a trend with pitchers like Rodon, Darvish and Flaherty. I had a disastrous epidemic sweep through the locker room – "Manoahnucleosis." It didn't kill anyone, but it put most of my arms in debilitating comas. I again consider Flaherty one of the major keys to my season. After missing much of three seasons with an assortment of injuries, including oblique and shoulder woes, he appeared healthy last spring but sure didn't pitch like it. He has looked pretty good this spring, too. I guess we'll see. In my opinion, he has the ceiling of a top-10 starting pitcher, but he has to be sharp.
  • SP6 MacKenzie Gore – Here's yet another Kid's List alumnus. I mean it stands to reason. I first saw Gore when he was in high school, and I immediately decided he was destined to pitch for me. I have had to be patient. He was selected in the first round in the 2017 draft out of high school, and he was making good progress before the injuries set in. His progress was slowed, but I still saw flashes of that great potential. He can still struggle with command of his off-speed offerings at times, but if he's around the zone, with his stuff, that's all he needs. Can he be what he promised years ago? I'm betting he can.
  • SP7 Jordan Hicks – Next, I have an SP7 I hope could someday be capable of being a SP1. So, mark me down as biased. Before Hicks' arm trouble, I liked his stuff as well as that of any pitcher in the game. His fastball velocity was down a couple ticks last year, and he threw more off-speed stuff, but he seemed to be pitching more within himself. I thought we might see a jump this year, but his first start was pretty similar. Should I start looking at him like a "finesse" pitcher? Gasp! Well, he's not quite a soft-tosser, but he is relying more on command, and it's working. A huge key is keeping guys off base, because he still can't control the running game (and that is becoming a bigger part of the game again).
  • RP1 Andres Munoz – Have you ever watched a pitcher who looked like every hitter was a potential strikeout? Here's your guy! Munoz has an electric power arm, and his command continues to improve. As long as he stays in or close to the strikezone he is pretty much unhittable, His ascent to almost a full-time closer role was slowed by the depth of the Mariners bullpen, most notably Paul Sewald, but he was dealt to Arizona, opening the door for Munoz.
  • RP2 Jordan Romano – I was projecting Romano as a top-tier closer a couple years ago, and the Blue Jays made me nervous for a while. First, they landed Kirby Yates, but he blew his arm out. Then, they briefly tried (really?) Julian Merryweather, but he also ended up hurt. It was almost like they wanted to be sure Romano didn't close games. I think we are beyond that now. He has successfully closed out game after game for Toronto, and I feel like he is now a top-tier closer and a bullpen anchor for the foreseeable future. He has begun 2024 on the injured list, but his absence is expected to be short term.
  • RP3 Robert Suarez – I hyped Yuki Matsui as my pick to close in San Diego, and so far I have been off base. Suarez has been closing, while Matsui pitches in a set-up role. Both have excellent stuff, and while Suarez does tend to struggle a bit more with command, they are competent closers. I tried to get both on draft day to cover myself, but Matsui went for a considerably inflated price. Either his manager reads this column, or his suitability to closing isn't much of a secret. I still think we could see him step in if Suarez stumbles, so stay tuned.
  • FLEX – This could be a SP7/8 or RP3/4 – Michael Soroka, Walker Buehler, Yusei Kikuchi, Roki Sasaki, Matt Brash and Liam Hendriks – This is the "bench strength" of my mound corps, so keeping the regulars on the mound is obviously the key to my season. By the end of the draft, pitching was a veritable wasteland, and I filled in with what was available. For the most part, these aren't bad pitchers. I just don't know how fantasy relevant they will be. I'm kind of counting on Buehler, and I like Soroka and Kikuchi a bit, while both Hendriks and Brash (an insurance policy) could figure into the saves mix for their respective teams if all the pieces fall into place. Time will tell.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

  • Braves starter Chris Sale was sharp in his first start with Atlanta. He recorded 16 outs, including seven strikeouts, while allowing just two runs. He was in line for a win but the bullpen let him down. The team is loaded, and while they will likely monitor his workload, I think he could be primed for a big year.
  • During the spring I was asked a couple times my thoughts on Kansas City's Brady Singer. My answer was, "I love him. Oh, and I hate him." He was pouring in strikes in his dazzling first 2024 start against Minnesota. He was great/awful in 2023, and he often leaves me wondering who is the real Singer.
  • The Dodgers (and fantasy managers) have to be encouraged by James Paxton's first 2024 start. He kept the Giants off the board more than five innings despite handing out five free passes. He can clean up those command issues, but the best news is his apparent good health, as he was able to toss 97 pitches.
  • We got to see the first no-hitter of 2024 this week. Houston's Ronel Blanco turned the trick against Toronto. Coincidentally, and perhaps not surprisingly, it was on April Fool's Day. Blanco has decent stuff but he isn't dominating, so expecting regular standout performances is probably overly optimistic.

Endgame Odyssey:

We're already seeing some apparent stabilization. For example, Abner Uribe, not to be confused with Doubleday, looks like the guy in Milwaukee. There is no doubt he has the best closer stuff; he just needs to throw enough strikes. Joel Payamps did pick up a save, but it was after Uribe had pitched two days in a row. Similarly, Daniel Hudson logged a save for the Dodgers after Evan Phillips had pitched two consecutive days. This info can be useful if a team's primary closer gets injured. Sometimes things are just baffling. Earlier, the Mariners carried a two-run lead into the eighth inning but inexplicably summoned Andres Munoz. He finished the eighth, and Ryne Stanek, a nice arm, pitched the ninth and converted the save. Could be a matchup thing.

As I look over my closer notes, it may be time to review some of the bullpen scenarios in depth. We'll plan on looking at the American League next week.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Brad Johnson
For more than 30 years, pitching guru Brad "Bogfella" Johnson has provided insightful evaluation and analysis of pitchers to a wide variety of fantasy baseball websites, webcasts and radio broadcasts. He joined RotoWire in 2011 with his popular Bogfella's Notebook.
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