Mound Musings: Targeting 2025 – Building a Draft Day Value List

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Published on August 15, 2024

You might be in a pennant race, or you might be looking forward to 2025. If your season is slipping away (or slipped away earlier), that doesn't mean your job is done. This is a great time to do your homework for next year and even lay the foundations for a big season in 2025. This week we'll look at pitchers to target next spring. Keep in mind, these won't necessarily be the "best" pitchers. These are pitchers who could potentially offer considerable value on draft day. They could be difference makers. The big-name aces will likely post excellent numbers next season, but in the majority of leagues, you'll pay full price for those guys. We're looking for valuable arms you can buy at a discount. Let's see who tops my list of pitchers establishing themselves as players to potentially target on draft day next season:

Bryan Woo (Mariners) – When determining a good bet, they sometimes say, "Go big, or go home." Well, I am going big by selecting Woo for inclusion on this list. I don't often get really jazzed about a prediction, but here we are. It's been a strange year for Woo. He missed the first six weeks with elbow irritation, then later strained a hamstring, so he has made just 13 starts and in some cases was rusty after the layoff. But, when healthy and everything is in sync, he fits right into the best rotation in baseball. And, I don't think we've seen his

Kodai Senga (Mets) – We have seen a slow but steady stream of arms (and bats) arriving from the Pacific Rim and contributing. Senga figured to be next up. He was just so-so when he first arrived in 2023, but then he settled in, and over the second half, he might have been the best pitcher in the game. He suffered a shoulder sprain prior to the 2024 season, and everyone patiently waited for that to clear up. Then, he was finally pronounced ready July 26. He took the mound against Atlanta, looked a little rusty but otherwise pretty sharp. However, in the fifth inning, he pulled up lame with a fluky calf strain and was subsequently ruled out for the rest of the season. We got to see 73 pitches – 73! I look forward to him to come back guns blazing in 2025. Get on board.

Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks) – He caught my eye earlier this year, so regular readers are aware of my thoughts regarding his potential. The Arizona kid has good stuff, though not overpowering. He generally throws strikes, albeit not always well located, which sometimes results in hard hit balls, but I see that command improving. He's also been a bit unlucky at times, and he can struggle with men on base. What probably impressed me most was his ability to miss bats (over 11 percent swinging strike rate), and that too could improve as he hones in on location. Arizona, with Brent Strom, is building a reputation for developing talented young pitchers, and he might be next.

Bailey Ober (Twins) – Not surprisingly, talk of Twins pitching usually focuses on guys like Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, but there's a new kid on the block, too. Okay, he's not really a kid, he's 29, but he is developing into a very stable starting pitcher. He's not a flamethrower, sitting at 91 to 92 mph, but rather he's like a surgeon. He consistently hits his spots with his entire arsenal, which includes a variety of above-average breaking balls. He's currently working on a string of nine straight quality starts. Like others on this list, he could be slightly overlooked on draft day. If he is drawing just moderate interest, I'll be jumping on his bandwagon. Add him to your list.

Spencer Arrighetti (Astros) – He is my super-secret, behind the curtain, sleeper. He is tantalizingly close to a breakout season. Like a lot of young arms, his command wanders a bit, but I am seeing steady improvement. He throws more strikes now – especially with his cutter and sweeper which are his out pitches. It's fairly unusual for a pitcher to feature as many positive indicators as he has with such ugly net numbers (5.45 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, so I will probably be targeting him whenever possible on draft day 2025. I often talk about patience with young pitchers, and he has enjoyed modest success. I remain convinced his day is coming and that patience could be rewarded soon.

Yariel Rodriguez (Blue Jays) – This is my big risk and (hopefully) big reward choice. I have been watching Rodriguez pitch in earnest for the first time in a long time. He's 27 years old, but he has already pitched all over the world – Cuba for six seasons, Japan, Dominican Republic, Triple-A Buffalo and now Toronto. He didn't pitch at all in 2023 as he pursued defection from Cuba and spent the early part of this year getting back into game shape. Rodriguez has just 50 MLB games under his belt and he still looks a bit rusty at times, but there is clearly some talent here, and he might break out next year.

Michael Soroka (White Sox) – Do you suppose folks remember Soroka from back in 2019? He bounced right to the top of the Braves rotation and looked like an ace in the making. Then, just three starts into the shortened 2020 season a freakish mishap resulted in a ruptured Achilles tendon. Unfortunate but not usually a big deal. Surgery. A lay off. Back to work. But it didn't work out that way. He needed a second surgery, and it cost him all of 2021 and 2022 with a couple setbacks, so he was just getting back on the mound in 2023. He made a couple rehab starts, and he was dazzling but he just wasn't right. Now in the White Sox, uh, "rebuilding" organization, he still hasn't come close to the promise he displayed early on. So where is the old Soroka? I'm going to be honest, I don't know, but it's rare for a top-shelf pitcher to lose it forever at his age.

Walker Buehler (Dodgers) – You will note a recurring theme on this list. Fantasy players often resort to a "what have you done for me lately" approach to assigning value and don't take complete recovery time from a pitcher's major injury into account. Buehler was a stud for several seasons (2017-21), but in 2022 he started having arm problems, leading to Tommy John surgery and a lost 2023. We looked forward to a return this year, but a hip injury has limited him to just 37 generally ineffective innings. He just made three rehab starts with mixed results for Triple-A Oklahoma City, but he finally got his feet wet (again) in a start against Milwaukee. There was good, and bad. Some pitches were sharp, but he was like a shotgun with his pitches all over the place, especially his cutter that he relies on so much, and the fielding was awful. He desperately needs innings.

I have a few honorable mentions. Most of these guys are injury related considerations and could therefore face workload restrictions, but they could still be good investments. Braxton Garrett was a consideration to be included on the list as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. Clarke Schmidt has looked nothing like the pitcher who was very high on my watch list, but don't be surprised if he gets that magic back next season. Christian Scott, Cal Quantrill and Miles Mikolas are additional thoughts.

There you have it – a few arms with a lot of positive indicators. They may not be fantasy staff aces but they could offer exceptional value, and that wins leagues.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

The Dodgers' River Ryan was off to a great start (1.33 ERA and 1.18 WHIP) through four starts. He was pulled from his August 10 start with what turned out to be a UCL strain. The Dodgers immediately ruled him out for the rest of this season, and now say it's going to be Tommy John surgery, erasing 2025.
I was tempted to include Houston's Hunter Brown on the bargain list. His numbers alone wouldn't stir up a lot of interest, but he was heavily hyped prior to this season, and his current peripherals are tainted by a horrible start to the year. If he is underpriced on draft day, I'd jump in. His stellar season could be on the way.
When Nats southpaw MacKenzie Gore first hit the majors, you could easily see the potential, but he didn't trust his stuff, nibbling, falling behind in counts, grooving pitches to get a strike when he was behind. That's just how he looked in his last start against the Angels. It was disheartening to say the least.
It's no secret I love a great curveball. So, who owns the best yakker in the game today? My vote goes to Houston's Framber Valdez. I have probably seen him pitch 100 times, yet when I am flipping through channels and see him on the mound, I can't resist. I just gotta see another hitter shaking his head. Love it!
The Diamondbacks welcomed back both Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly, giving them a fully healthy rotation for the first time this season. The team had been playing well shorthanded, but this should be a nice boost, particularly with Kelly who looked pretty sharp delivering 85 pitches in his return.

Endgame Odyssey:

Remember when the Giants Camilo Doval was one of the best closers in the game? He hit an extended rough stretch, and it bought him a ticket to Triple-A Sacramento. Look for Ryan Walker to work the ninth for the time being, but Jordan Hicks is lurking in the shadows also. The Tigers recently bypassed saves leader Jason Foley and turned to Will Vest to protect a one-run lead. Foley has struggled a bit recently, and this could be a developing committee situation. In the desert, the struggling Paul Sewald has pretty much disappeared, and there's a new kid on the block. Fireballer Justin Martinez has three saves (and a win) over his last four outings. I look for him to keep getting the ball as long he keeps getting it done. I thought there was a chance Michael Kopech might find new life with the Dodgers after being dealt by the White Sox. He has been lights out, but at least for now they are satisfied with letting him setup for Daniel Hudson. A closer I don't often get to mention is Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase. That's pretty much because he is automatic, even in extreme cases. He recently recorded four saves in four days.