This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
Super Regionals Best Bets Today: Tennessee vs Arkansas
UTSA had their chances, but it couldn't deliver for us. We're really one win away from a mostly average UCLA team making the College World Series, which is sickening. To be honest, there's too many teams that shouldn't even be in the position to be Omaha-bound, but this year has been so weird, and far from the norm that it's become a crapshoot.
Only one team has punched their ticket, Coastal Carolina, but we're going to get at least three more by Sunday's end, as we have a few winner-take-all Game 3s on deck. Who knows, there could be more as well.
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Tennessee vs Arkansas: Key Matchups and Predictions
Tennessee (-130) vs. Arkansas (+100) | Total: 10
The draw giveth and the draw taketh away. The mantra "life isn't fair" really applies to this series. For each team, they have to fight a war just to make the College World Series, while a handful of other teams had either layups or nothing more than a scrappy underdog. But two perennial title contenders have to battle it out with each other. Also, the fans get deprived of this duel taking place in Omaha where the stage is bigger. Don't get me wrong, it's an awesome Super Regionals matchup, but this battle in Omaha would be off the charts.
The Hogs won Game 1 in a tight one-run decision. A fifth-inning walk with two outs by Marcus Phillips led to the go-ahead home run for Arkansas, and Tennessee wasn't able to recover. I mean, if you go into Fayetteville against this team and allow only four runs with your Saturday guy, you that's not on your pitching. Zach Root was fantastic for the Hogs in a huge moment, so he was able to simmer down this Vols lineup.
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Because of the extra pitches and regionals leaking over to Monday, Liam Doyle was saved for what was going to be a season saving or series winning Game 2 with the extra rest. Obviously, it's the former, so the reigning SEC Pitcher of the Year/Golden Spikes Finalist/Dick Howser Trophy Finalist holds the fate of Tennessee's season for at least one more game.
I'm not as high on Liam Doyle as a pro as most people, nor do I believe this junior year quantum leap out of nowhere is truly indicative of the pitcher he is, but you can't argue with the results - at least from the college side of things. His 2.84 ERA, 158 K/30 BB in 92 IP has a strong case as the best season a Tennessee pitcher has ever had in school history. And he's been one of, if not the, best pitcher in the country in 2025. So, the Vols are going to ride with the guy that got them here.
Doyle has mostly had all good/great starts this year, but there's been a few brutal outings. One of those few was during the last week of the regular season in Fayetteville against this same Razorbacks team. The Hogs fattened this little piggy up for a slaughter, tagging Doyle for 11 hits and six earned over 4.2 IP. The three homers were the catalyst in that attack.
There are little breaks in this Arkansas offense this year for a team that's hit 121 homers and .313, where seven of the mainstays in the lineup have double-digit taters. But, one thing we know about Doyle is he is a fierce competitor. And after he got bombarded in that start, I think he's going to be ready for a little payback. Everything is fastball centered with him, and where he's lived this year is tippy-top of the zone with 98+, so that's where he's going to have to attack. A lot of these Arkansas hitters have huge uppercuts like they're swinging a boat oar through the zone, thus it would be prudent to avoid that bat path.
Gage Wood is scheduled to take the bump for the Hogs. This is another electric arm in this series with first-round MLB talent. Wood got hurt in the second week of the season down in Arlington against Michigan. He missed a couple months, and has been working his way back to towards a full workload. Against Creighton last week in the regionals, he went six innings with three earned runs, 13 Ks and no walks. He also saw the Vols in that series to end the regular season (3 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 7 K, 1 BB).
Wood's arsenal is certainly electric (50 K/5 BB in 25.1 IP), backed by a heater that runs up in the high 90's with ride. When the kid is on, he's tough to crack. It's definitely a different look from Root who has a super weird lefty crossfire delivery. This could have the makings of another low-scoring grind.
Tennessee's offense was held to just two hits in Game 1. It's not been the bopping Vols offense were used to seeing in recent years. But, the talent is for sure in this lineup, so the question is who is going to step up? We know Andrew Fischer and his 25 home run for this offense, but somebody else will also have to deliver. I think with the season on the line they find a way.
I've had Tennessee making it to Omaha since the preseason. I can't back away now. Let's go with the Vols to keep the season alive with tensions running high after Saturday's spat.
Pick: Vols ML -130 (at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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