Oak's Corner: First Week’s in the Books

The first week of the season is always a tough one for me in the fantasy realm. I'm so excited to have games to watch, and there have been some great moments already (Hello, Ramon Laureano), but I struggle to get a handle on my fantasy teams. I'm still learning who is on what team and, of course, every homer or earned run allowed causes the standings to jump. I make a pretty concerted effort to not look at standings or live stats at this point of the season as I wouldn't want to overreact to a slow start or get too comfortable with a fast start. We drafted these players for a reason after an offseason of research, so make sure to not overact to a mere week of the season, but do make sure to check the drop list in your leagues to see if anyone else in your league did some overreacting. Enjoy the games fully but don't get too high if you are in first, and please don't panic if you are in last, or make any roster drop decisions based on 30 at-bats.

The Week That Was

Cody Bellinger has had an absolute monster first week of the season. He hit the ground running with a homer on Opening Day and has already had a two-homer/six RBI game and hit a grand off Madison Bumgarner. Through the first seven games of the season, Bellinger has five homers, nine runs and 13 RBI, and he's giving us flashbacks of his rookie year when it felt like he homered every night. Bellinger's biggest issue his rookie year – of course, he didn't have many – was his strikeout rate, as he was punched out in more than 26 percent of his plate appearances. He did drop that rate to 23.9 percent in 2018, but even though he played in all 162 games, the homers dropped to 25 from 39 and he only drove 76 runs.

Bellinger's hard hit rate did drop in 2018 (it was still more than 40 percent) but the season also saw his HR/FB drop 10 percent to 15.2 and he also hit seven percent less fly balls. If he could stick the fly ball even just somewhere between 2017 and 2018, the homers are going to come in bunches with his consistent level of hard contact. He has only struck out five times so far in 33 plate appearances, and if he can cut the strikeout rate yet again in 2019, he might even help out a solid batting average in with all the rest of the goodness. Toss in 10 to 15 steals and multiposition eligibility, and Bellinger is someone I'm definitely not looking to sell high on if offers come along. With this Dodgers offense looking really damn good, I wish I had Bellinger on more squads this year.

About one round after Bellinger was drafted, we find another interesting outfielder, Tommy Pham of the Rays. After stealing five bags in September for the Rays, he has picked back up with the speed, already compiling three steals in the first week of the season. Hard hit rates can jump around a bit from season to season, but I always take notice of guys who have seasons that are one extreme or the other, and Pham's 2018 48.5 percent stuck out to me during offseason research. That hard contact combined with the late flurry of steals in his new location moved him up to a strong target for me in drafts, and I took him a bit before his ADP in the Main Event.

Granted, all the requisite small sample notes should be applied here, but Pham's hard hit rate through his first 30 plate appearances is an utterly absurd 82.4 percent! The one issue in Pham's profile when it comes to fantasy is his lack of fly balls, which puts a definite cap on his home run upside, but if he going to run at this new rate in Tampa Bay, the 23 or 21 homers from the last two years will work just fine. It's almost impossible to make trades after one week, but with zero homers and a .280 average that doesn't jump off the page, I'd make an offer for Pham right now, as I think a 20/35 season with a .300 average is very much in play.

FAAB Feelings

Greg Bird – As the Yankees offense seems to have someone go on the DL every six hours or so, it does create opportunities for other guys, and the most intriguing beneficiary right now is Bird. Initially a bench bat to start the year, with 2018 second-half sensation Luke Voit at first and Giancarlo Stanton at DH, Bird is now looking at a run of regular at-bats as the Yankees have open spots and are suddenly desperate for some pop in their lineup. Bird has suffered with a ton of injury issues, missing all of 2016 and large chunks of 2017 and 2018. When he has played, he has shown some flashes of major power with 11 homers in only 46 games in his Kevin Maas-like 2015 call-up and nine homers in 48 games in 2017.

Bird has a career 40.4 percent hard hit rate and a 50 percent fly ball rate, numbers that will absolutely lead to a lot of big flies, especially as a lefty hitting in Yankee Stadium for half his games. With a batting average under .200 in his last two seasons, it's a risk, but with BABIPs of .230 and .194 in those seasons, he seems like he is due a bit of a break in that stat. The upside of Bird in that park caused him to be drafted in most 15-team leagues, as he is owned in 92 percent of the NFBC Main Events, but he is only owned in 39 percent of the NFBC 12-team leagues. Finding a true difference maker in FAAB can be really tough, and while it is possible that his batting average may tank again or he could lose playing time, you aren't going to find this level of power upside in a FAAB bat. I think he's a must bid where available, at least to see how the playing time works out over the next month or so.

Christian Walker – This one got a lot more interesting on Wednesday when Jake Lamb left the game with a left quad strain. There hasn't been a timetable laid out yet for Lamb, but he had an MRI on Thursday, and a local report indicated that Lamb was expected to be placed on the Injured List (oh hey, I got the IL right!) on Friday. Walker was acquired by the Diamondbacks on waivers in 2017 and responded with a massive season in Triple-A with a .309 average, 23 homers and more than 100 runs and RBI in only 133 games. Even more intriguing was that Walker exhibited an excellent contact rate that season, striking out less than 18 percent of the time. Walker's 2018 in Triple-A featured 18 homers over only 84 games while he hit .299, but his strikeout rate did jump up to 24 percent.

Of course, as someone who spent a summer working for a baseball team in Reno (where the D-Backs AAA team resides) during college, I can promise you full certainty that the ball flies like crazy in Reno, so his minor league numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. However, he did exhibit some pop in the minors with the Orioles, and with his fly ball rate in the minors and solid contact rate, he could be a nice source of pop without a ton of batting average risk, at least in the short term while Lamb is out. He is only owned at 54 percent in the NFBC Main Event Leagues and is definitely someone to add this week if you need any help at corner infield, as power can be tough to locate in deeper leagues.

A Closer Look

While the Royals aren't projected to win a lot of games, even bad teams win some games and create save opportunities. Their closing situation is a complete mess at the moment, as Brad Boxberger looks out of the mix based on his usage, and Ned Yost commented this past weekend that Wily Peralta and Ian Kennedy could share the job. Since then, Kennedy blew his first save opportunity and then then Peralta gave up a run in the ninth to take the loss the next night.

The most intriguing name in the pen actually took the loss Thursday, as Kyle Zimmer walked three batters without getting an out. Zimmer was the fifth overall pick by the Royals in 2012 as a starting pitcher, but has dealt with multiple injuries in his time in the minors and was transitioned to the pen in 2017 before missing all of 2018 with another injury. Prior to the meltdown on Thursday, Zimmer had an exceptional spring with one earned run allowed in 12.2 innings while flashing a mid-90s fastball. Zimmer's big issue when we last saw him in 2017 was his control with a 4.41 BB/9 walk rate, but with the complete dearth of intriguing arms in the Kansas City bullpen, Zimmer is the one guy who could get hot and run with the job. The Royals will likely be careful with his innings and limit appearances on back-to-backs, but in deeper leagues, I'm speculating on him and watching his new appearances. In more shallow leagues, I'm adding him to my watch list and grabbing him if he manages to toss a few scoreless frames in succession.

Series of the Weekend

A's at Astros. C'mon, what else would it be; you have to give me this one! But really, this is a big series early in the season between two teams that won exactly 200 games combined last year. The A's come off a series win against the World Champion Red Sox and are looking to make an initial statement to show that the AL West isn't a one-horse race. The A's starting rotation was the clear concern heading into the season, but they have been hot and even shut out the Red Sox twice this week. The Astros will definitely have a huge starting pitching edge over the course of the season, but the A's do luck out a bit this weekend, missing out on seeing both Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander.

With the departure (and lack of arrival anywhere else) of Dallas Keuchel and the spring injury of Josh James, Sunday's starter Brad Peacock finally was able to lock down a starting rotation spot for the Astros. Peacock is a fascinating guy to watch this year as he transitions back to the starting rotation after serving as a reliever for almost all of 2018. Coming out of the pen last season, Peacock posted a career high 12.3 K/9 strikeout rate while dropping his walk rate under 3.00 BB/9. His struggles with homers pushed up his ERA to 3.46, as he allowed 11 of them in only 65 innings. If he can keep some of the strikeout gains as a starter while maintaining the walk rate, Peacock becomes a really nice upside starter with high win potential with the Astros offense behind him.

On Friday night, the A's send Frankie Montas to the mound. He's looking to build on his excellent first start, which followed a fantastic spring. Montas has always thrown hard but was a two-pitch pitcher in 2018 and gave a lot of rockets, sporting a 46.1 percent hard hit rate. The talk of the addition of a splitter in spring first peaked my interest, and then I was full in on speculating on Montas after a 0.56 ERA in 16 spring innings with a 16:5 K:BB rate. In his first start of the year against the Angels, Montas was excellent, allowing one run over six innings with six strikeouts. Facing the Astros in Houston will be a much tougher test, and I'lol be watching the start closely to get an indication or how far (or not) Montas has come since 2018.

And by the way, I know it doesn't matter for fantasy stats, but tune in to this series just to watch Matt Chapman and Laureano play defense. They were both absolute must see TV all week against the Red Sox, and while Chapman makes more tough plays look routine than anyone, Laureano brings the flash with an insane arm that will haunt Xander Bogaerts for quite a while.