Points Leagues Takeaways from Week 1

We're nearly one week into the regular season, and we're going through the annual tradition of reading too much into small sample we have. This column will spend plenty of time evaluating player skills throughout the year, but early on, we can gather more from looking at a player's role. The focus of this week's article will be on player movement up and down their respective lineups, informing potential pickups, trade targets and drops.   

The Importance of Lineup Position

Before jumping into specific players, it's worth taking a minute to dive a bit deeper into why lineup position matters and link the concept back to last week's article on maximizing volume. Using Baseball Reference's season data from 2023, we can create the following table:

There's a consistent dropoff of plate appearances from one lineup position to the next. Even a traditionally coveted lineup spot such as fourth or fifth loses a significant amount of volume compared to the leadoff spot. Half of a plate appearance or less per game may seem minimal, but  looking at the average points per game by player from last season can give us an idea of just how much opportunity can matter.

Bryce Harper was the 21st-best hitter as measured by points per game and averaged 0.78 points per plate appearance. Michael Harris was the 77th-best hitter as measured by points per game and averaged 0.72 points per plate appearance. Harper hit primarily third in the Phillies lineup and sometimes fourth. Meanwhile, Harris hit ninth for roughly 62 percent of his plate appearances. Despite the minimal difference between the two players on a per-plate appearance basis, Harris averaged 2.8 points per game and Harper 3.4. There aren't an abundance of players that hit ninth in their team's batting order who are relevant in most mixed fantasy leagues, so this is admittedly an extreme example. However, it still illustrates of why batting order matters.

With that in mind, let's take a look around the league at some early season lineup construction winners and losers.  

Hitters to Consider Adding

Anthony Rendon (Yahoo: three precent rostered, ESPN: one percent rostered)

Rendon has had a miserable start to the season (0-for-19 with a 25 percent strikeout rate), but he's also led off every game for the Angels (he's out of the lineup Wednesday). Don't expect his 2019 or 2020 production to come back, but Rendon does have a skill set well suited for points leagues, highlighted by a low strikeout rate, high walk rate, and now a chance to hit atop the lineup.

Alex Kirilloff (Yahoo: six percent, ESPN: three percent)

Kirilloff hitting high in the Twins' order isn't new, as he's held his customary second spot in the lineup. He's also healthy and has two barrels in his first 13 batted ball events. That small sample isn't predictive, but it's easy to overlook Kirilloff's skill level due to the trouble he's had staying healthy.

JJ Bleday (Yahoo: two percent, ESPN: one percent)

Valuable fantasy options can come from bad teams, and that may be what we have in Bleday. He's been in the lineup every game, hitting either second or third against righties and sixth against the one lefty the A's have drawn. Bleday also already has four extra-base hits in 25 plate appearances.

Jesse Winker (Yahoo: one percent, one percent ESPN)

Winker had a season to forget in 2023, but the case for him is similar to that of Rendon based on his skills and current health. He's occupied the third spot in the Nats' order against righties, and he only dropped to fifth against the one lefty the team has faced so far. James Wood and Dylan Crews may be up to the majors in short order and cut into Winker's playing time, but he's an interesting short-term add in deeper formats.

Yoan Moncada (Yahoo: five percent, ESPN: three percent)

Moncada earned 78 percent of his plate appearances hitting either fifth or sixth last season, but he's been bumped up to second in the order early on. He has three extra-base hits across 21 plate appearances.

Likely Rostered, but Trending Up

Jorge Polanco

Polanco went from an unclear role in Minnesota to the everyday job at second base in Seattle. He's also hitting third in the order, behind J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriguez. Both will be on base regularly, giving Polanco plenty of RBI chances.

Jake Cronenworth

The Padres don't have much choice but to continue to play Cronenworth after they inked him to a seven-year, $80 million contract extension that kicked in this year. They've gone beyond that, however, and seem to be leaning into him fully bouncing back after a disappointing 2023 campaign. He's hitting third in between Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado, and the result is 11 combined runs and RBI across eight games.

Maikel Garcia

Garcia is one of the hotter pickups in roto and category leagues thanks primarily to his speed combined with him occupying the leadoff spot in Kansas City. That buzz has likely carried over to points formats, and I'd try to take advantage by selling high. He's also propped up his fantasy value by popping two home runs, but he hasn't shown the consistent ability to hit for power throughout his time in the minors. His OBP and projected wOBA don't scream leadoff hitter, so his profile is precarious. Garcia is a fine hold, but take advantage of those buying the hype and don't build him into your long-term roster plans.

Down in the Order

Nico Hoerner

Hoerner stands out as the biggest loser from the first week of the season. He had only two plate appearances batting lower than second in the Cubs lineup in 2023, but he's dropped to seventh against righties in the current campaign with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki instead occupying the top two spots. Hoerner drew a significant amount of his value from scoring 98 runs in 2023, a mark he'll find nearly impossible to match in 2024.

Rhys Hoskins

Hoskins has gotten off to a fine start with his new club from a statistical perspective, but he's surprisingly hit sixth in the lineup against righties. The bottom third of Milwaukee's lineup is particularly ugly, so Hoskins' counting stats are likely to suffer even if his skills remain stable.

Ty France

France has been displaced by the aforementioned Polanco. He's coming off a down 2023 (.315 wOBA, .116 ISO) and has failed to tally any extra-base hits through Tuesday's game.

Ha-Seong Kim

Kim spent the majority of the 2023 season leading off, but the Padres telegraphed a potential move down in the final two weeks when Xander Bogaerts took over the leadoff spot. Kim has settled into the fifth spot in the order in 2024, a position he should be able to maintain due to the poor lower half of San Diego's lineup.

Elly De La Cruz

Part of the debate centered around De La Cruz during draft season was where he fit in the Reds' lineup. Even with TJ Friedl (wrist) and Matt McLain (shoulder) sidelined, De La Cruz has hit exclusively sixth.

Ezequiel Tovar

There was chatter that Tovar would move up in the Rockies' lineup to begin 2024, but he's hit seventh in all but one game. When Charlie Blackmon is out of the lineup, Tovar looks to be the preferred option to move up. That's something to monitor, but for now he remains stuck in the bottom third of what appears to be one of the worst offenses in the league.   

Javier Baez

To the extent Baez is a strong fit for any fantasy format, it's certainly not a points league. He'll remain in the Detroit lineup, but he's gone from predominantly hitting in the top third of the lineup to eighth.