This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Sunday, April 14
YTD 22-22 (-0.88 units)
Prior article 2-4 ( -1.21 units)
Prior article review
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -132)
- The Cubs were in control the whole game which ended up 4-1. I am kicking myself because I had Mariners UNDER 3.5 runs originally on the card and decided to pass. This team just cannot hit right now.
- Imanaga OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel +124)
- The game went the way I thought and Imanaga looked solid again, but only had four strikeouts in 5.1 innings.
- Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -145)
- The Dodgers team total OVER at home hits again and is now at 10-0.
- Dodgers OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -130)
- Dodgers decided to score runs in the sixth inning and not the fifth. Ugh.
- SGP - Ohtani/Betts/Fernando Tatis Jr/Manny Machado 2+ Total Bases for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +1230)
- Tatis had two, Machado one, Betts three and Ohtani one. Hitting a four-leg parlay on total bases is tough, but when Gavin Stone throws a perfect game thru five I have to just shake my head to the variance of baseball.
- Cardinals/Dbacks OVER 5.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
- Kyle Gibson did not pitch well and allowed four earned runs, but Ryne Nelson pitched a gem??? I should have stuck with my system on F5 totals and dialed this unit back a little.
WEEKEND MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. 1-2 key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL medium plays, Totals, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs, F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props)
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San Diego Padres 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
I will preach this all year, you have to pick your spots with the Dodgers whether it's a play on or against because their prices are always going to be inflated. This is a play against spot as we have a strong starting pitcher in Yu Darvish going against left-handed pitcher James Paxton.
The Padres are deadly against lefties with a .253 ISO and their hitters 1-6 are hitting .353 against Paxton (18-for-51). Yu Darvish has a strong history against the Dodgers with a 1.48 ERA in his last five starts against them. He has been a little shaky in his last two starts this season, but his history against the Dodgers carries more weight for me.
Paxton has a 1.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in two starts, but 9:6 K:BB rate is disturbing especially against a team with this much history against him.
This is a prime example of why F5 betting works. We want to isolate Darvish and Paxton as the data is strong for and against them. I do not want to wonder what will happen in the 6th-9th innings in this game. The moneyline opened Dodgers -170 and is now at -142, which indicates heavy action on the Padres.
MLB Picks for Padres at Dodgers
- Padres ML F5 for 0.75 unit (+105)
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Chicago Cubs 
at Seattle Mariners 
Two things going against the Mariners in this game – Luis Castillo has looked dreadful in his first three starts (0-3, 6.89 ERA) and they are not hitting as a team (bottom five in many categories). Castillo has allowed at least four earned runs in his last five starts dating back to last year. The Cubs have averaging 5.3 runs per game (3rd) while the Mariners are 28th with 3.1 runs per game.
On the Cubs side, starting pitcher Javier Assad has been good in two starts this year and going back to last year with a 2.50 ERA in his last seven starts.
This will be a full-unit play as it is a straight moneyline play and we are getting some plus money on the road dog. Betting splits can also be an indication about where the "sharp" money is going and it is all on the Cubs, who have 50 percent of bets, but 71 percent of the handle. The total has also moved from 8 to 7.5, which indicates also a play against the Mariners lineup.
I can see this line getting to -120 to -130 by first pitch.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Mariners
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +124)
St. Louis Cardinals 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
When it comes to taking the moneyline vs. the run line, my threshold is usually around -150 on the favorite. We have about that with the DBacks at home against the Cards, but a huge pitching mismatch with Zac Gallen versus Miles Mikolas. Gallen's home splits are incredible and he is about as automatic as you can get. Arizona's record in his home starts is 7-3, 15-5 and 23-7 last 10/20/30 games.
The key for me was in looking at how many runs Arizona wins by in Gallen's home starts, there were very few one-run games, which has me going to the RL. Leaning on another trend, the Cardinals are heavy to the UNDER in Mikolas' road starts (7/10, 14/20, and 21/30). Most books have this at 8.5, but PointsBet was hanging a 9 so I grabbed it.
MLB Picks for Cardinals at Diamondbacks
- DBacks -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet +145)
- Cardinals/DBacks UNDER 9 runs for 0.5 unit (PointsBet -120)
Washington Nationals 
at Oakland Athletics 
The first two games in this series have been 3-1, and 2-1 (10 innings), and both teams are bottom five in runs scored. This ballpark neutralizes offense and we have two bad ones to boot. The starting pitching matchups do not really influence me here, but Trevor Williams has looked good with a 2.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, but only seven strikeouts to five walks. This is speculation, but we also could see some different bats in the lineup for both teams which will water down offense even more.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Athletics
- Nationals/A's UNDER 8.5 for 0.75 unit (BetMGM -115)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Padres ML F5 for 0.75 unit (+105)
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +124)
- DBacks -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet +145)
- Cardinals/DBacks UNDER 9 runs for 0.5 unit (PointsBet -120)
- Nationals/A's UNDER 8.5 for 0.75 unit (BetMGM -115; DraftKings 8 -105)
- PARLAY ALL ABOVE except Cards/Dbacks total - 0.25 unit (DraftKings +1875)
