This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
NCAA Baseball Tournament: Regionals Best Bets Today
Chaos ensued on Friday's Regional openers. FOUR different 4 seeds beat their hosts, which is rare. I'm surprised at some of them, but I can't say I'm shocked because so many top seeds decided to pitch off (not throw their ace) in an effort to squeak a cheap win against an "easy opponent" so they could save their ace for the 1-0 game. That backfired big time. The pitching off thing only worked for Oklahoma, Clemson, LSU, FSU and Mississippi State.
I got slammed on my card last night, so we need a nice bounce back. Saturday features some delicious pitching matchups, mostly in elimination games. Let's get back to the winning ways.
Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at the best MLB betting sites this baseball season. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.
Cincinnati +230 vs. Tennessee (DraftKings)
The Bearcats were one of the few winners I had yesterday as we nailed that upset. Coming into the tournament, I've mentioned this team a few times as being more than live to win this region and upset the applecart. One of the main reasons was because their style of play. They put a blitzkrieg on teams with speed, bunts, small ball, and that relentless approach applies so much pressure to the region that doesn't defend it very well.
I highlighted this exact matchup throughout the week. If the Bearcats played the Vols with Marcus Phillips on the mound, it's one of the best matchups for an underdog to have a chance to win on the Saturday slate. After bashing Wake Forest over the head, Cincy will face legitimately one of the worst pitchers against the run game in Phillips.
Phillips (3.64 ERA, 85 K/28 BB in 71.2 IP) is a big strong dude that ramps it up to triple digits. But it hasn't helped him much the last few weeks as he yielded 11 ER and seven walks in his last four outings (16.1 IP). Despite the talent, he's been off the mark way too many times this year. Although I have Tennessee making it out of their region, getting the Bearcats at this big of a price is not something I can ignore.
The Cats pitching is unconfirmed, but I think Kellen O'Connor is most likely to go here. It's been an up and down year for KOC (4.68 ERA, 56 K/20 BB in 65.1 IP). He's either been brilliant or a disaster. The big bugaboo for him is the 14 homers he's allowed, something that does not play well against this team or in this ball park.
For Cincy to win, they probably have to score at least 10 runs again. To be honest the total of 13 feels way too low, so that also looks like a nice over spot. DK is giving you a fun SGP with Cincy ML/O12.5 at +550, and I don't think it's half bad. Cincy +3.5/O12.5 is a bit safer and still a decent +290.
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this MLB season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top MLB betting promos.
Florida State -180 vs. Mississippi State
This is one of the headlining pitching matchups of the day. Both teams pitched off and the gamble worked as they have their aces ready for the 1-0. Jamie Arnold is the best pitcher in the country even if he hasn't had the best overall season. He's the straw that stirs the drink for this FSU team.
He'll face a Miss State offense that's been oddly good this season - at least on paper. Considering how atrocious they were last year, the jump is startling. Ace Reese is a stud, winner of the Newcomer of the Year award in the SEC. He leads the team in average (.364) and homers (21) and sets the tone for everybody else. Three other players are in double figures for bombs and four other full time starters carry a .300 or better average. I'll be honest though, I'm not sold on this lineup as a whole. There are a few guys that can really get you, like Reese, Noah Sullivan and Hunter Hines, but I don't trust the rest.
Arnold has also not been sharp the last two weeks, giving up five earned over five innings to Duke and four earned over five against UNC. Other than that, he's only had one outing where he gave up more than two earned and that was against Miami on 3/21. The FSU bullpen is also awful, which means Arnold not only has to be really good, but needs to go at least six and preferably seven innings.
The Dawgs are going with Pico Kohn, one of the more talented arms in the country. The 4.13 ERA has bloated a bit towards the end of the season as it's been tough noogies. The 107 K/25 BB ratio in 76.1 IP is lights out, which explains why he's so tough when he's on. Kohn has looked mortal lately, giving up six earned in two of his last four outings. Even against Mizzou two weeks ago, he walked four over 4.1 innings. I question the effectiveness in the rust vs. rest debate as well.
He'll see an FSU lineup that has been really good this year. Seven of their nine regular starters are hitting over .300 and four have double figure homers. Freshman Myles Bailey has been on a tear lately with a four-game homer streak (five total bombs). The Seminole lineup likely poses a bigger threat to Pico Kohn than the Miss State offense does to Jamie Arnold.
I also had FSU winning this region, so I think I need to roll with them here. Plus I can't bet against Jamie Arnold.
I have a full card for Saturday and the rest of the week. Don't miss out on all of my plays.
To get the rest of my unlimited College Baseball and MLB Slate, join here.
