The Z Files: First Half Earnings Review - Outfielders, Starting Pitchers and Relievers

Thanks for the kind words regarding First Half Earnings Review: Catchers and Infielders. As promised, here is the follow-up, looking at the outfield, starting pitching, and relievers. Designated hitters are included with the outfielders.

By means of reminder, rankings are for 15-team mixed standard scoring, using stats heading into the All-Star break. Some of the player blurbs may cite post-break performance.

Top-40 Outfielders

General Observations

Four of the top five outfielders are 25 years old or younger. That's pretty cool. Ronald Acuna (24 years old) should be lumped in with this group, since he would have been in this neighborhood had he not missed time.

Two of the top five (Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez) are primarily power guys, though Judge has nine bags, hence the huge gap between him and the rest of the field. The others, including Acuna, possess the power/speed combo sought after early in drafts. The names may have changed, but the formula's the same. It's no longer Mike Trout, Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts who are the targets. Now, Julio Rodriguez, Acuna, Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert carry the "get steals early" banner.

While this type of analysis is best suited for the end of the year, Jurickson Profar, Josh Naylor, Taylor Ward and Harold Ramirez were all drafted outside of the top 450 in the NFBC Main Event, meaning they were essentially all free agents. The common denominator is all entered the season with playing time questions but have played regularly. This speaks towards using something akin to the Steamer 600 as a draft guide for late round and reserve picks. Steamer 600 ranks everyone on the basis of 600 plate appearances, so the order is driven by skills alone. For what it's worth, I do this with my projections, but admittedly don't put as much credence into some of the outliers as I should.

Most Likely to Drop Out

Chances are, well over 10 of the top 40 outfielders at the break will end up outside of the group come October, but pinpointing who is tougher than expected. The first filter is players enjoying a lot of luck. To be honest, there isn't anyone with markedly worse expected stats. That is, there are no clear regression candidates. The best I can muster is Joc Pederson, since he's so reliant on crushing right-handers with only 37 tries against southpaws. Pederson's .858 OPS with the platoon edge is his highest mark since 2019, and it's coming with one of the worst hitting venues in the league as his home park. For what it's worth, Pederson's exit velocity and hard hit rate are both 98th percentile, so he hasn't been lucky. He's just been this good.

Conspicuous By Their Absence

Due to the size of the outfield inventory, I came up with objective parameters for inclusion in this group. The lowest number of plate appearances for those making the top 40 was 264, so that was set as the minimum. Preseason rankings are best considered ranges, so instead of only including players I initially ranked in the top 40, the boundary was extended to the top 50. Here are the batters meeting both filters.

Nick Castellanos: I wonder if Castellanos can hear his fantasy team managers booing. After posting a career-low 20.7 percent strikeout rate last season, he is back up to 24.7 percent, while also walking a career-low 5.5 percent of the time. Historically, Castellanos' exit velocity on flyballs is high enough that he shouldn't be all that affected by the reduced-flight baseball. However, his velo is down a couple of ticks, cratering his power. Castellanos' track record suggests a rebound, but he's going to have to earn it; this is not a matter of bad luck.

Nelson Cruz: It took until his age-41 season, but those wanting to be one year too early rather than too late are finally being rewarded. That said, perhaps last season's struggles after being traded to the Rays were more than just frustration with the lighting and other aspects of Tropicana Field. The Nationals lineup isn't great top to bottom, but hitting with Juan Soto and Josh Bell should result in more production, especially since Nationals Park is a good hitting venue. 

Myles Straw: Ranking Straw in the top 40 and drafting him are not mutually exclusive. In full disclosure, while I did not champion loading up on power early then taking Straw, I didn't categorically dismiss the ploy if forced into it. That is, I felt he would get on base just enough to hold the leadoff spot, with his defense keeping him in the lineup. Well, I was half right as Straw now occupies the Guardians' nine-hole. He's tied for 18th overall with 13 stolen bases. For many, this reinforces the notion of avoiding stolen base specialists (and that was Plan A for me), but I see the more important message as factoring in all plausible outcomes, and I failed to account for Straw falling out of the leadoff spot. Had I done so, he likely would have landed outside the top 40.

Cody Bellinger: His power and speed are fine, but his contact rate continues to crater. His chase rate carried over from last season, but now he's less aggressive in the zone too. Overall, Bellinger is swinging more than when he was one of the top hitters in the game, but his issues run deeper. This season, he is being crushed by breaking pitches. Teams are recognizing this and are throwing him more curves and sliders. The other problem is Bellinger isn't compensating by improving against hard stuff. He's done it before, he may do it again. However, since 2020, he's .199/.274/.367. He's like a 20/20 Mario Mendoza.

Marcell Ozuna: Ozuna's ranking was in large part a leap of faith as he was coming off a long suspension and was having a terrible 2021 before being placed on administrative leave. Truist Park is a great hitting venue though, and Ozuna had achieved success in some of the poorest yards in the league. His overall exit velocity is down, but his mark on flyballs remains solid. In a weird way, he's being hurt by hitting more flyballs in a season where the ball isn't traveling as far. This is keeping some of his lofted balls in the yard, lowering his BABIP.

Alex Verdugo: Verdugo is a compiler who has hit into a lot of bad luck this season. His contact rate is a career best, though his hard hit rate and exit velocity are down. That said, when he has hit the ball with authority, Verdugo hasn't enjoyed commensurate success.

Randal Grichuk: Simply moving to Coors Field isn't enough. In order to achieve success, batters need to make contact, much of it of the lofted ball variety, Grichuk didn't get the message as he's fanning more while hitting grounders at a career-high 52 percent clip.

Avisail Garcia: This may be an example of overly lofty expectations, though Garcia showed positive signs in Milwaukee last season, including finally unveiling some of his latent speed. The huge downgrade in park isn't helping, but the combination of a career-high strikeout rate in tandem with a career-low walk rate is the chief culprit. Garcia has the feel of someone who will be forgotten next season, with the chance to rebound.

Most Likely to Jump In

Any of the previously discussed misses could revert to form and make a run at the top 40. Here are some other candidates.

Tyler O'Neill: Can he stay healthy? Everything else is there, including a small dip in strikeout rate, even though it's still a generous 29 percent.

Michael Harris: If Harris had broken camp with Atlanta and performed anywhere close to his current level, he'd be a top 20 overall hitter, let alone outfielder.

Riley Greene: An injury delayed Greene's 2022 debut, and he hasn't produced anything close to Harris' level, but Greene has the pedigree if he can maintain an elevated hard hit rate while lowering his 50 percent groundball clip.

Seiya Suzuki: A finger injury cost Suzuki five weeks, otherwise he'd be a top 25 outfielder.

Luis Arraez: Arraez also qualifies at first base, second base and third base, but his low power and steals aren't enough to get him on a top 15 list. However, top 40 is plausible if he can maintain his elevated .341 average. Doing so isn't guaranteed, but Arraez is a bona fide .300 hitter with a career .320 mark.

Christopher Morel: Morel's number don't prorate quite as well as Harris', but he still would land as a top 40 overall hitter if he'd been on the roster from Opening Day. His .379 BABIP is artificially high, but Morel's homers and steals are enough to propel him up the second-half ranks.

Josh Rojas: Injuries cost Rojas a more lofty rank. He also qualifies at the hot corner with a chance to jump into the top 15 at the position, but with 25 more spots in the outfield, Rojas' stolen bases should do the trick. He's 11-for-11 in only 65 games.

Top-50 Starting Pitchers

General Observations

Pitching. Can't win without it. Pass the beer nuts.

There's already enough variance hampering pitching analysis. This season, the reduced-flight ball and humidors have entered the chat, along with new means of rubbing up the ball to standardize tackiness. Next year we get to decide which pitchers benefit or are hurt by more balanced schedules, not to mention legislating the shift. Good times.

There is always shuffling within the pitching ranks, much of which will be addressed in the ensuing sections. It's hard to say how this season's changes will affect next season's strategies. With respect to the NFBC, there will always be those pushing pitching. It is a monkey-see, monkey-do community though, so some approaches will be fashioned around the strategies of the 2022 overall champions and top players.

Most Likely to Drop Out

Each of these hurler deserves a blurb, but the common denominator is they've outpitched their peripherals, so in the interest of bandwidth, let's just list them and move on. If you'd like more of an explanation, I'll be happy to comply in the discussion section below: Miles Mikolas, Martin Perez, Adam Wainwright, Merrill Kelly, Tyler Anderson, Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Wells and Michael Wacha. For the record, Gonsolin and Kelly are the most likely to hang in, while Mikolas is due for the biggest fall.

Conspicuous By Their Absence

Similar to outfielders, criteria to make this list were established. The arms had to be initially ranked in the top 60 and have amassed more than 70 innings through the break. This precludes Brandon Woodruff,  Walker Buehler and Sonny Gray. Gray pitched well when healthy, but Buehler and Woodruff fell short of expectations when on the hill. Buehler is out until at least September. Perhaps Woodruff will get mentioned later. Here are those meeting both cutoffs, in reverse of first-half earnings.

Trevor Rogers: Rogers' changeup continues to be an issue. Last season, it generated a 20.5 percent swinging strike and a .213 wOBA. This year, the swinging strike mark has plummeted to 12.5 percent while the wOBA has ballooned to .317. Rogers needs the changeup to be effective, since batters usually fare well against his four-seamer. To be fair, he has also been unlucky with a .336 BABIP and 65.5 percent left on base mark. A major issue when evaluating Rogers is everything is based off one season. Perhaps last season is the outlier, thus setting an unfair bar against which to compare.

Jose Berrios: So much for a rock-solid floor with some latent upside. That said, Berrios posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in July, with 36 strikeouts to only six walks in 29 frames. It could have even better if not for a .364 BABIP this month, though he did benefit from an 84 percent left on base clip.

Tyler Mahle: Mahle is fanning fewer and walking more than last season. That said, his swinging strike rate has only dropped from 11.4 to 11.2 percent, so he's been a little unlucky in that regard with his strikeout rate falling from 27.7 to 25.6 percent. His 69 percent left on base rate has artificially bloated his ERA, but even so, Mahle's skills have declined a bit from last season, though still within a plausible range. There's nothing to worry about.

Lucas Giolito: On the other hand, Giolito is a mess. Just as it appears he's figuring things out, he gets rocked. His slider and changeup are both failing him. Other than pedigree, there is nothing on which to hang the rebound hat. Oh joy, as I am writing this, Giolito is prepping for a start in Coors Field.

Ranger Suarez: Setting baseline expectations for Suarez was rough since he was out over his skis after transitioning to the rotation last season. Maybe he's underachieving with an 18.8 percent strikeout rate, but if Suarez hadn't missed a few starts, he'd be a back-end top 50 starter, which is where he was projected.

Charlie Morton: Morton is back on track after struggling over his first dozen starts, posting a 2.22 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his last seven outings, fanning 55 while issuing just 14 free passes during those 44.2 innings. Maybe it was the lack of team communication while recovering from a broken leg incurred in the World Series, but Morton has recovered and is primed for a solid finish to his age-38 campaign.

Alex Wood: Wood has pitched well, but he's been victimized by a low 68.5 percent left on base level and a high .324 BABIP. In fact, Wood's ERA estimators are all career bests.

Sean Manaea: July has not been kind to Manaea, as he's recorded a 6.16 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. A .354 BABIP this month hasn't helped, but yielding 28 hits and five homers in 19 stanzas is more than just bad luck. His fastball velocity and slider spin rate are in sync with earlier in the campaign, so hopefully this is just an extended rut and not Manaea pitching through some discomfort.

Michael Kopech: Kopech is similar to Suarez in that there was some leap of faith involved when translating reliever metrics to a full-time starter role. So far, it has not gone well for Kopech as his paltry 9.0 percent K-BB% mark is being rescued by a .226 BABIP and 78.9 percent left on base mark. He should improve with more starter innings under his belt, but until he fans more and walks fewer, Kopech is a risk.

Nathan Eovaldi: Eovaldi has pitched well enough to be a top 50 starter, as indicated by a 4.30 ERA despite a 3.18 xFIP and 3.28 ERA.

Deep Speaker Voice: Zola is conveniently omitting a 4.73 FIP, reflecting an unsightly 22.8 percent HR/FB mark and 2.15 HR/9.

Did you guys hear something? Anyway, I'd be remiss if I didn't point out Eovaldi has served up 18 homers in just 75.1 innings.

Zac Gallen: Granted, Gallen's strikeouts are down a bit, but he's fine. He landed at No. 51 despite missing a couple starts.

Most Likely to Jump In

Eovaldi and Morton just have to keep doing what they're doing, though Eovaldi needs to keep the ball in the yard. Jacob deGrom and Freddy Peralta need to be themselves when they return.

Sonny Gray: As previously indicated, Gray just needs to stay healthy; he's been top-50 quality when on the bump.

Drew Rasmussen: Rasmussen's skills are clearly top-50 worthy. However, the Rays are very protective of over-exposing him, as he's only worked more than five frames in four of his 16 starts. If Tampa lets Rasmussen pitch deeper into games, he'll accrue top-50 volume.

Tarik Skubal: Some may question why Skubal didn't make the previous set. Simply put, he was initially ranked outside of my top 50 as I needed to see a reduction in homers and not just assume it would manifest. Well, it has, but Skubal has been burned by a .310 BABIP and 66.3 percent left on base clip. If he maintains his current level, he'll crack the top 50.

Jeffrey Springs: Springs has the skills, he just needs the volume. He's in the same boat as Rasmussen.

Brandon Woodruff: Woodruff is fine, but it's worth noting before his injury, he was teetering on Berrios/Giolito territory with a 4.74 ERA and 1.24 WHIP after his first nine starts. However, in five starts since returning from the IL in late June, Woodruff has recorded a 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 39 punchouts, nine walks and no homers allowed, spanning 28.2 frames.

Top-15 Relievers

General Observations

Yup, just like everyone expected. There is so much noise in a reliever's small sample of innings, it's not worth digging too deep. Not to mention, projecting saves requires a Magic-8 ball.

Even so... HUH?

Some will use the rankings to advance the "wait on saves" narrative, but if you drafted Edwin Diaz or Emmanuel Clase early, you're doing fine. If you waited, you weren't assured of lucking into Jorge Lopez, Ryan Helsley or Clay Holmes.

Michael King's inclusion is a perfect illustration that relievers contribute more than saves, though six wins certainly helped. It's a shame King will miss the rest of the season.

Most Likely to Drop Out

All 15. That's just the nature of relievers in a small sample.

Conspicuous By Their Absence

Liam Hendriks: Missing almost a month clearly hurt, but Hendriks ratios have slipped a bit (see: variance in small samples). A few more walks is the primary culprit, but since coming off the IL, Hendriks has been stingy, issuing his first walk in July on Tuesday night in Colorado.

Josh Hader: Nine earned runs in two appearances, totaling just 0.1 innings, heading into the break torpedoed Hader's ratios.

Giovanny Gallegos: Gallegos struggled a bit heading into the break, but his omission is more due to my assumption he'd still be the main closer, even though Oli Marmol indicated there would be a committee. At the time, Ryan Helsley wasn't expected to be a main contributor, but he's emerged as one of the best relievers in the league, so Gallegos will likely spend the rest of the season in a setup capacity.

Raisel Iglesias: Five earned runs over 2.2 innings in early July pushed Iglesias out. He has pitched better since, but he's doing so with slightly reduced velocity.

Craig Kimbrel: It's getting harder to be a Kimbrel apologist. That said, while his control isn't sharp, a .391 BABIP and 65.8 percent left on base clip are doing him no favors.

Aroldis Chapman: The signs of his demise were there, but Chapman was still drafted as a top-10 closer. Injuries played an obvious part, but he can no longer control the baseball.

Most Likely to Jump In

All of the them is a viable answer, but here are some guesses.

Josh Hader and Liam Hendriks are obvious. Camilo Doval, Tanner Houck and Gregory Soto have all emerged as their club's primary closing option, though Soto is a trade candidate.