This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
We are getting closer to the point where it's going to take some categorial miracles for you to make substantive changes to your place in the standings. That statement is not to say things are impossible at this point, but teams have anywhere from 49 to 53 games remaining on their schedules as play begins August 4th. Thankfully, the Chicago White Sox are one of those teams with only 49 games remaining, as their season-long nightmare can't end soon enough for those players who just lost their 19th consecutive baseball game as I was outlining this article on Saturday. The White Sox are now just two games off the American League record of 21 consecutive losses held by the Baltimore Orioles and five games from besting the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies at 23 games. Chicago wraps up their series against Minnesota on Sunday before flying to Oakland for a three-game set and then returns home to host the Northsiders in a two-game series before taking on the Yankees and Astros the following week. Folks, 30 straight is a non-zero probability!
Simply put, we have seven scoring periods left in this season, and as I often write about this time of year, you still have time to make moves in the standings. I'll use AL LABR as an example here, where I currently enjoy an 8.5-point lead over colleague James Anderson as I look to repeat as league champ, but even in the past few days, our two teams have flipped places
We are getting closer to the point where it's going to take some categorial miracles for you to make substantive changes to your place in the standings. That statement is not to say things are impossible at this point, but teams have anywhere from 49 to 53 games remaining on their schedules as play begins August 4th. Thankfully, the Chicago White Sox are one of those teams with only 49 games remaining, as their season-long nightmare can't end soon enough for those players who just lost their 19th consecutive baseball game as I was outlining this article on Saturday. The White Sox are now just two games off the American League record of 21 consecutive losses held by the Baltimore Orioles and five games from besting the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies at 23 games. Chicago wraps up their series against Minnesota on Sunday before flying to Oakland for a three-game set and then returns home to host the Northsiders in a two-game series before taking on the Yankees and Astros the following week. Folks, 30 straight is a non-zero probability!
Simply put, we have seven scoring periods left in this season, and as I often write about this time of year, you still have time to make moves in the standings. I'll use AL LABR as an example here, where I currently enjoy an 8.5-point lead over colleague James Anderson as I look to repeat as league champ, but even in the past few days, our two teams have flipped places in the overall standings during the day. Why? Look at how tight some of the scoring categories are (blue bold is my team):
Home runs, RBI, steals, runs, strikeouts and ERA remain rather tightly contented categories in some grouping, which means I can't get too comfortable with my league. I do enjoy sizable leads in a few categories over James (green bars) but look at the upward mobility he has in some of those aforementioned categories, especially the hotly contested RBI, steals and runs:
I know I'm not the only one staring at the standings on a daily basis to see how I can gain and/or protect my place in the rankings. I would like to look at what is statistically possible in the standard scoring categories over a 49-53 game sample set from a variety of angles. Let's begin by looking back at the end of the 2023 season.
2023 Hitting Categories
Top Five Batting Averages:
- Yandy Diaz: .364
- Mookie Betts: .357
- Seiya Suzuki: .354
- Marcell Ozuna: .340
- Trea Turner: .339
Top Five Home Runs:
- Kyle Schwarber: 20
- Ozuna, Matt Olson, Aaron Judge: 17
- Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Torkelson: 16
- Pete Alonso: 15
- Julio Rodriguez: 14
Top 5 RBIs:
- Ozuna: 50
- Olson: 47
- Cody Bellinger: 46
- Rodriguez: 43
- Nick Castellanos, Turner, Acuna, Alonso: 41
Top 5 Runs:
- Acuna Jr.: 51
- Schwarber: 46
- Olson: 46
- Jose Altuve: 44
- Turner: 42
Top 5 Steals:
- Acuna Jr., C.J. Abrams: 22
- Corbin Carroll: 20
- Elly De La Cruz: 18
- Nico Hoerner, Bobby Witt Jr.: 17
- Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Brice Turang, Ha-Seong Kim: 14
Marquee names do marquee things. Outside of Torkelson showing up in power and Abrams, Turang and Kim showing up with their speed breakouts, there are no surprises here. We roster studs because we expect big things from them, and these names delivered down the stretch.
2023 was the first year under the new stolen bases rules, so it would not surprise me to see another player or two challenge 20 steals the rest of the way (prop bet on Zach Neto!) but the other numbers will be tough to repeat because we continue to live in a different power environment in 2024. As play begins on August 4, there have been 3,717 home runs hit around the league. Readers will recall from my previous articles on this subject my usage of HR/Contact ((HR/(AB-K)), and the table below shows how that is playing out through August 4 of the current season as well as the three previous years:
SEASON | AB | HR | K | HR/Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 107,631 | 3,909 | 28,511 | 4.94% |
2022 | 106,569 | 3,421 | 26,467 | 4.27% |
2023 | 111,615 | 3,927 | 28,361 | 4.72% |
2024 | 112,112 | 3,717 | 27,895 | 4.41% |
2024 is still lagging behind 2023 and is unlikely to catch it any time soon, but it's pacing ahead of 2022's lower run environment. Let's look back at the 2022 hitting to see what happened in that season down the stretch to find a happy medium for our offensive expectations.
2022 Hitting Categories
Top Five Batting Averages:
- Jeff McNeil: .364
- Bo Bichette: .347
- Nathaniel Lowe: .341
- Judge: .335
- Carlos Correa, Joey Meneses: .333
Top Five Home Runs:
- Judge: 19
- Mike Trout: 16
- Anthony Santander: 14
- Manny Machado, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Olson, Rowdy Tellez: 13
- Meneses, Schwarber, N. Lowe, Rengifo: 12
Top 5 RBIs:
- Machado: 42
- Dansby Swanson, Kyle Tucker, Randy Arozarena: 40
- Nolan Arenado, Ramirez: 39
- Judge, Alonso: 38
- Alex Bregman: 37
Top 5 Runs:
- Freddie Freemain: 43
- Altuve, Marcus Semien, Judge: 42
- Betts: 39
- Steven Kwan, Michael Harris II: 38
- Brandon Nimmo, Christian Walker: 37
Top 5 Steals:
- Jake McCarthy: 18
- Jon Berti: 13
- Elvis Andrus: 12
- Cedric Mullins: 11
- Adolis Garcia, Tommy Edman, Josh Rojas, Kwan: 10
Quite the difference? What was good enough for fifth in steals would have been second-best in 2022. The 42 runs Trea Turner scored late last season would have tied him for second-best rather than fifth-best as he was last season, while Machado's 42 RBI would have been fifth-best last season down the stretch.
2023 Pitching Numbers
Wins:
- Spencer Strider: 8
- Justin Verlander, Luis Castillo: 7
- Lance Lynn, Chris Bassitt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Snell, Zac Gallen, Tarik Skubal: 6
- Kyle Gibson, Zack Wheeler, Mike Clevinger, Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Kyle Bradish, Bobby Miller, Kodai Senga: 5
- Seth Lugo, Zach Eflin, Kevin Gausman, 10 others: 4 wins
Strikeouts:
- Snell, Cole Ragans: 78
- Tarik Skubal: 75
- Nick Pivetta, Spencer Strider: 73
- Zac Gallen: 71
- Justin Steele, Dylan Cease: 70
ERA:
- Snell: 1.77
- Bradish: 1.87
- Sonny Gray: 1.96
- Skubal: 2.15
- Grayson Rodriguez: 2.17
WHIP:
- Brandon Woodruff: 0.81
- Cole: 0.85
- Skubal: 0.87
- Bradish: 0.90
- Kirby: 0.95
Saves:
- David Bednar: 17
- Emmanuel Clase: 15
- Paul Sewald, Raisel Iglesias: 13
- Kyle Finnegan: 12
- Trevor May, Pete Fairbanks: 11
Working backwards, two of the five closers listed there no longer have a closing job, and one of them (May) is retired but is doing well on social media. Two-fifths of the WHIP leaders aren't pitching this season, but there are otherwise few surprises on this list. Let's see how the different run environment impacted these same categories in 2022.
2022 Pitching Numbers
Wins:
- Bassitt, Framber Valdez, Cal Quantrill, Shane Bieber: 7
- Lynn, Yu Darvish, Julio Urias, Gallen, Shohei Ohtani, Brady Singer: 6
- Michael Wacha, Jordan Montgomery, Jeffrey Springs , Jose Suarez, Joe Ryan, Drew Rasmussen: 5
- Charlie Morton, 12 others: 4
- Adam Wainwright, 11 others: 3
Strikeouts:
- Snell, Cole Ragans: 78
- Tarik Skubal: 75
- Nick Pivetta & Spencer Strider: 73
- Zac Gallen: 71
- Justin Steele, Dylan Cease: 70
ERA:
- Gallen: 1.36
- Urias: 1.37
- Ohtani: 1.48
- Manoah: 1.81
- Patrick Sandoval: 2.01
WHIP:
- Gallen: 0.72
- Jacob deGrom: 0.80
- Rasmussen: 0.82
- Darvish: 0.85
- Urias: 0.91
Saves:
- Clase: 18
- Kenley Jansen: 17
- Liam Hendriks: 15
- Camilo Doval: 13
- Ryan Pressly: 12
Again, wins and strikeouts are rather stable, but even the best ERA from the 2023 home stretch would have finished just fourth in the 2022 home stretch run.
Category | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
AVG | .333-.364 | .339-.364 |
HR | 12-19 | 14-20 |
RBIs | 37-42 | 41-50 |
Runs | 37-43 | 42-51 |
Steals | 10-18 | 14-22 |
Wins | 3-7 | 4-8 |
Strikeouts | 70-78 | 70-78 |
ERA | 1.36-2.01 | 1.77-2.17 |
WHIP | 0.72-0.91 | 0.81-0.95 |
Saves | 12-18 | 11-17 |
As you look at your teams through regular or rose-tinted glasses, understand what is realistically possible down the stretch as you look to acquire that one pitcher or one hitter you believe you have to have to address your team's biggest need. The range of possibilities for categorical performance have been different each of the past two seasons in certain categories, and 2024 has performed closer to the 2022 season than the 2023 season for too long now to call it a seasonal fluke.
