This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
It's just two days before the All-Star break and we're entering a precipitous stretch for gambling purposes. With many star players either out (LeBron James) or questionable with some sort of injury (Gordon Hayward, Luka Doncic, Jerami Grant, Clint Capela) and a possible lack of motivation on the side of the players, there's little incentive to take any big risks over the next two days. Be cautious, target possible values, and live to bet another day.
Points Props
There just weren't a lot of points totals to really target, mainly because Wednesday's slate has so many variables to it. I am interested in taking Domantas Sabonis over 21.5 points (-115) simply because the Cavaliers are not great at defending power forwards. That matters less with Jarrett Allen at center, but he'll have to contend with Myles Turner which should ease the floor a bit for Sabonis.
Then there's Anthony Edwards, who I think should be able to score more than 19.5 points (-134) given how beleaguered the Timberwolves are at the moment. The odds are just dreadful, which always makes me hesitant, but since stepping in for the suspended Malik Beasley, Edwards is averaging 22.0 points and 34.7 minutes per game and faces the Hornets who allow a stunningly high amount of 3-pointers to opposing backcourts.
Otherwise, there's just not much value left. I think Marvin Bagley could go over 16.5 points (-110) but it's quite possible the Lakers could be missing at minimum three regular starters, throwing into question any sort of validity when it comes to the opposing scoring data we have. Since returning from a two-game absence in mid-February, Badgley has seen a more featured role in the Kings offense, averaging 18.8 points over eight games while bumping up his minute total to 28.1 per game during that stretch. The Kings simply aren't a very good team, but the same could definitely be said about the Lakers if they were to miss Kyle Kuzma (heel), Alex Caruso (neck) or Marc Gasol (COVID-19) on top of LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (calf). I think there's legitimate concern about the blowout potential in favor of the Kings, which would obviously limit Badgley's scoring opportunities.
I don't think I'm betting this because it's Damian Lillard, but a 33.5-point o/u (-110 in either direction) is an absurdly high mark regardless of how special a player is. Stephen Curry and the Warriors actually aren't bad when it comes to stopping opposing point guards so I'd naturally defer to the under, but it doesn't take a crazy imagination to see the two All-Stars turning this into a three-point shooting contest.
Assists/Rebounds Props
Weirdly enough there were far more rebound-specific bets to target Wednesday. I mentioned it in the Handicapping the NBA: Wednesday Picks so I won't go into too much detail. Taking the under when it comes to Wendell Carter rebounds (7.5, -120) is one of the better values for Wednesday's slate overall.
If I was playing DFS I'd be all over James Harden in his first game against the Rockets, but DraftKings seems to have most of the props priced appropriately. One thing I think they're lower on is rebounds, though. We know the Rockets allow a ton of rebounds in general, but aside from targeting a DeAndre Jordan rebound over (which was unavailable on DraftKings for some reason?), I think Harden seems to be the "next man up" on the glass. Over 8.5 rebounds (-114) is a healthy figure, sure, but Harden is averaging 9.2 rebounds in the last 12 games which coincides almost entirely with Kevin Durant's (hamstring) absence. Harden getting a triple-double is only +200 so I'd rather just focus specifically on the boards considering the triple-double odds just aren't that generous.
Simply from an odds perspective, I'd consider taking the over when it comes to Draymond Green's 7.5-rebound total (+112). The veteran forward left Sunday's game early with an ankle injury, but prior to that Green recorded seven or more rebounds in each of the past four games. It's not like the Trail Blazers are particularly great at defending the glass (sixth-most rebounds allowed to opposing PFs) and it seems the Warriors are slow-rolling Kevon Looney and James Wiseman back into prominent minutes. This might be the final chance to get plus odds on Green when it comes to a rebounding prop bet.
We'll round out the article with a bet that I nearly put on the best bets section, but I'm trying to practice what I preached at the top of the show. Taking the under when it comes to Rudy Gobert's 26.5 points/rebounds/assists (+100) is awfully enticing for a number of reasons. It was only a couple of weeks ago Gobert combined for just 22 total points, rebounds and assists against the 76ers, and that was without Joel Embiid -- who will be back for Wednesday's marquee matchup. The numbers reinforce the under too considering the 76ers allow the second-fewest rebounds to opposing centers, and the fewest points too. Gobert is an excellent player, and excellent players can buck trends at any point, but in theory, this is one of the better bets given the odds Wednesday.
Best Bets
- Marvin Bagley over 16.5 points (-110)
- Wendell Carter under 7.5 rebounds (-120)
