FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

Written by

Jeff Edgerton

Published on March 5, 2022

As usual, FanDuel will exclude the early game on Saturday, leaving a five-game offering that tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET.

SLATE OVERVIEW

CHA (-3.5) vs. SAS O/U: 241

MEM (-15.5) vs. ORL O/U: 231

MIA (-1) vs. PHI O/U: 220.5

MIN (-13) vs. POR O/U: 232

GSW (-5.5) @ LAL O/U: 224.5

Vegas sends a strong message in favor of the Hornets-Spurs game with a 241 projected game total. We will be making some solid calls there. The spot that could hold a lot of value exists in the POR/MIN matchup.

INJURIES

SAS Devin Vassell (adductor) - QUESTIONABLE

SAS Lonnie Walker (back) - QUESTIONABLE

The tags are relevant for San Antonio's second unit. Tre Jones ($4.800) and Josh Richardson ($3,800) would see more time if these tags hold.

MIA Jimmy Butler (toe) - QUESTIONABLE

MIA Kyle Lowry (personal) - OUT

MIA Caleb Martin (Achilles) - QUESTIONABLE

MIA Max Strus ( shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE

MIA P.J. Tucker (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

We can pretty much ensure a good game for Tyler Herro ($6,900), but if Butler misses, you'd need to check the status of everyone else, as Strus and Martin would be key replacements in a Butler absence. If you lack the time to check, it is probably best to fade the Butler situation.

ORL Wendell Carter (illness) - QUESTIONABLE

There will be more work for Chuma Okeke ($5,700) and Mo Bamba ($4,600) if the illness keeps Carter out for another game.

POR Josh Hart (rest) - OUT

POR Justise Winslow (Achilles) - OUT

POR Eric Bledsoe (Achilles) - OUT

POR Jusuf Nurkic (foot) - OUT

CJ Elleby ($3,900). Trendon Watford ($3,500) and Ben McLemore ($3,900) are my favorite pivots in this injury scenario.

MIN Anthony Edwards (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

We'll see if Edwards can make it Saturday. If he is out, I like Jaden McDaniels ($4,700) as the top pivot.

ELITE PLAYERS

Referring back to the high game total, you have to give a lot of exposure to Dejounte Murray ($9,600) and LaMelo Ball ($8,000) in a spot that will benefit both players. Ja Morant ($10,500) also finds himself in a good spot, but Murray's salary tag makes him a better elite value at point guard overall.

For big men, Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300) stands out against a Nurkic-less Portland squad that will have a few additional playmakers absent. It's also foolish to discount Joel Embiid ($11,000) on any slate. He has a fairly decent history against Bam Adebayo.

We round out the elite discussion with LeBron James ($10,300), who will play despite his injury tag. When will enough be enough for James? Seasonal managers fear an early exit for him as he gives up on the season and his tenure as a Laker, but we should still take advantage while he continues to carry the team on his shoulders.

Also consider: James Harden, PHI ($10,400) @ MIA

EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS

D'Angelo Russell, MIN ($7,800) vs. POR

Portland is an excellent team to exploit on this slate, and I especially like Russell if Edwards doesn't suit up. He still has value in either case, demonstrating a decent history against the Trail Blazers this season. He should be able to beat previous numbers against them while they are shorthanded.

Terry Rozier, CHA ($7,800) vs. SAS

Rozier could also be set to blow in this fast-paced affair. As he's shown throughout the past month, Rozier has the goods to lead this team in scoring on a frequent basis, making him a good alternative to Ball and a slightly less expensive way to buy your way into this offense. We should take every opportunity we can in this game, and Rozier's salary is at the right level to fire him up.

Jaren Jackson, MEM ($6,800) vs. ORL

Triple-J's salary level is low in a spot where Wendell Carter might be absent, and while Orlando has the talent to fill the gap, I like Jackson in a spot where he will likely eclipse the 33.2 FDFP game he had against the Magic back in February. Replicating that number will still come close to meeting 5x value at this salary, but he's flashed explosive upside that can get him over 40 FP.

Keldon Johnson, SAS ($5,900) @ CHA

We will continue the theme of smashing this game with Johnson, who represents one of several guys who could go off for the Spurs. Poor rebound totals have hurt his output recently but this game is a good candidate to get him out of this slump. He put up 21 points and three rebounds in his last game against the Hornets, so he only needs a few more boards to be worthwhile at this salary level.

Klay Thompson , GSW ($5,700) @ LAL

There's no question that Thompson is very shot-dependent, but you have to like him against the struggling Lakers, especially at this salary. His opportunities should be plentiful here, and if the game gets out of hand, the Warriors' rotation is tight enough to give Thompson plenty of minutes, regardless of the outcome.

Greg Brown, POR ($3,500) @ MIN

Brown is my minimum-priced play of the night. With a host of staters out, Brown figures to have a sizable role Saturday. He doesn't have to do much to break value at this salary, and he's popped for as much as 25 FP in recent games. The absences of Hart, Winslow and Nurkic present the perfect storm for a guy like Brown so I will fire him up in several lineups as my salary saver.

Also consider: Desmond Bane, MEM ($5,700) vs. ORL

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.