I've finally gotten around to doing some drafts over the last two weeks, and I'm amazed at some of the value out there right now. It's always fascinating to see how players' values change from one year to the next because there are numerous variables that nobody considers. The most impactful variable when expecting a jump from a player is a bump in usage, and that'll be a major theme in this article. With that said, I'll provide picks in each portion of the draft, so let's get started by talking about some of the early-round values!
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NBA ADP from Yahoo
Early-Round Picks
Devin Booker, Suns 
ADP: 15
There are rarely any strong values in the opening rounds of a fantasy draft because every player is so good. Still, fantasy managers are overlooking how special Booker could be this season. This guard has been getting better every year, but this could be a career campaign. We say that because the Suns have gone in full-on rebuild mode, parting ways with Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Deandre Ayton over the last two years. That's a ton of usage out of the lineup, but Booker was already a stud before those guys left.
The four-time All-Star averaged 25.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.4 threes per game last year. That scoring was a slight drop off, but the assist total was a career high. We expect that point total to creep closer to 30 points because Booker could lead the league in shot attempts and usage when examining this lackluster roster. The fact that he had a 29 percent usage rate with KD and Beal last year is an eye-opening statistic because he was closer to 40 percent when those two were off the floor.
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Derrick White, Celtics 
ADP: 41
I just selected White with the 39th pick in our most recent mock draft, and he'll be on most of my teams if he continues to fall around pick 40. Much like Booker, White is benefiting from some of the absences in Boston. Not only did they lose Jayson Tatum to an injury, but Boston also parted ways with Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. They didn't get much to fill those voids, so we expect White to take on much more usage this season. That's a godsend for a player like this because White's elite stat-stuffing has made him a fantasy stud despite some limited usage.
White posted a 20 percent usage rate last season but should get closer to 25-30 percent this year. That's quite the development since he ranked 15th in 9-cat leagues last season, averaging 16.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.1 blocks and 3.5 blocks on efficient shooting. It's rare to see a player fill every stat like that, especially since that looks like his floor for this new-look roster. Don't be surprised to see White set career highs across the board and match the Top 20 rank we saw last season.
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Mid-Round Picks
Alex Sarr, Wizards 
ADP: 79
What if I told you that Sarr became the third player in NBA history to record 100 threes and 100 blocks as a rookie? That's a ridiculous resume for a 9-cat league because Sarr is only scratching the surface of what he can become. After a slow start, Sarr averaged 15.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.7 threes across his final 22 games. That's actually below our projections this season, with Sarr projected to average 16.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.9 blocks and 2.0 threes per game.
People were drafting Myles Turner as a Top 30 player when he showcased that upside early in his career, but Sarr is a massive value with a similar skillset. He's going to be asked to be one of the focal points of this woeful Washington offense, and it's common for top picks to break out in their sophomore season. Seeing a 20-year-old with this sort of upside in this range of the fantasy draft is difficult to believe, but there seems to be some negative narratives surrounding Sarr because of some struggles in his rookie season. That's a silly notion, and we're going to take advantage of it here.
Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's NBA Projections!
Andrew Nembhard, Pacers 
ADP: 92
We love Nembhard for all the same reasons as Booker and White. The major difference is that Nembhard should see the most significant bump in usage because he's going to be the starting point guard in Indiana. There aren't many better opportunities in fantasy basketball, with the Pacers ranked seventh in pace and ninth in offensive efficiency last season. Tyrese Haliburton has been a Top 20 player in that role, and Nembhard should benefit from the pace of that elite offense, with Hali expected to miss the whole season.
We don't have much of a sample size with Haliburton off the floor, but Nembhard showed some signs of growth in last year's postseason run. In those 23 playoff games, Nembhard averaged 12.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.7 threes on efficient shooting averages. Those numbers are in line with our projections, with Nembhard forecasted to average 14.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.3 threes this season. He had a 16 percent usage rate across 29 minutes a night last year, but he should be above 20 percent usage and 30 minutes a night this year. That, paired with some elite shooting, would have Nembhard flirting with Top 50 value, but he's falling close to the 100s in most drafts right now.
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Late-Round Picks
Tobias Harris, Pistons 
ADP: 113
The hatred for Harris has gone too far. There's this weird narrative out there that Harris was one of the worst signings after his time in Philly, but he just continues to be an asset for fantasy purposes. While he did have his worst season in a decade, we're still talking about a guy who's averaged 17 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks and 1.4 threes since that massive signing in 2019. Most importantly, he shot 49 percent from the field, 37 percent from three-point range and 87 percent from the free-throw line in that stretch. That sort of efficiency is difficult to find, which is why Harris was a Top 50 player throughout most of that period. What really makes Harris a great pick is his draft price, being selected outside the Top 100 in most drafts right now. That means this former Top 50 player is free in drafts, and it's not like this 32-year-old is nearing the end of his career. It costs nothing to take this risk, and there are simply not many players in this range who have a higher floor than Harris.
Keyonte George, Jazz 
ADP: 114
It's funny that we mentioned Harris for his efficiency because the lack of efficiency from George is what's scaring fantasy managers away. Despite some poor shooting, George averaged 16.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 0.7 steals and 2.6 threes last season. He did almost all of that damage in a bench role, but George should see a career high in minutes, shot attempts and usage with Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson now out of the picture. We saw glimpses of that last year, averaging 17.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.7 threes across his final 15 starts last year. That's the sort of stat line we expect for a full season, especially if he's going to start and play 30-35 minutes a night for one of the weakest rosters in the NBA. A leap from a 21-year-old would be far from surprising, and it's scary to think how good he could be if his shooting improves.
Jay Huff, Pacers
ADP: 159
It was surprising to see the Pacers let Myles Turner walk in the offseason because it has left their frontcourt rotation extremely thin. Jarace Walker, Isaiah Jackson, James Wiseman and Tony Bradley are the only viable centers on this roster, but three of those guys are coming off serious injuries. That has many people expecting Huff to be the starter, and we've seen this guy go off in limited minutes in the past. If you look at the nine games Huff played at least 20 minutes last year, he averaged 13.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.2 blocks and 2.6 threes per game. He did that while shooting 52 percent from the field, 42 percent from three-point range and 80 percent from the charity stripe. It's rare to see a center with efficiency numbers like those, but Huff has a Brook Lopez-type profile. Even if he's limited to just 20 minutes a night, he can provide averages like those for one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA.
Essential Resources for Fantasy Basketball Success
Check out RotoWire's How to Play Fantasy Basketball guide for a complete walkthrough, but here is some basic advice:
- Check out custom NBA Fantasy Projections
- Look into Fantasy Basketball Mock Drafts
- Listen to a Fantasy Basketball Podcast
- Check in on Fantasy Basketball Player News
- Read Fantasy Basketball Articles
- Dive into RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
- Study NBA Depth Charts
- See RotoWire's Fantasy Basketball Dynasty Rankings
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