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Best Bets
Kyle Lowry over 4.5 assists (-155) at Boston
BetMGM, 3:47 PM CT
Alex Barutha: With Gabe Vincent sidelined, I'm targeting some Miami player props. Lowry has seen the most minutes in this series with Vincent off the court, and he's averaging 8.4 assists per 36 minutes in that scenario. I think the minutes will be there, so a prop of 4.5 appears to be good value, even with some juice. Other books have this at 5.5 at +120, so pick your poison.
Jimmy Butler over 28.5 points (+100) at Boston
FanDuel, 3:49 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Butler has scored 41 points in 46 minutes without Vincent on the floor in this series, and I think it's fair to expect Miami to continue leaning on Butler as a scorer in this case. The roster was already thin. Butler may need to play almost all 48 minutes.
Caleb Martin over 12.5 points (-150) at Boston
DraftKings, 3:54 PM CT
Alex Barutha: Regression is coming for Martin, who is averaging 18.5 points on 64/46/100 shooting, but I still think this number is too low, especially with Vincent sidelined. Martin is averaging 33.0 minutes per game, which I expect to trend closer to 40 tonight. I initially thought about targeting some Duncan Robinson props -- I don't mind over 2.5 threes at +150 -- but I'm much more confident about Martin's playing time and usage.
Caleb Martin O1.5 made threes (-165) vs. Celtics
DraftKings Sportsbook, 2:30pm CT
Nick Whalen: We've been banging this prop all series, and even at -165 I'm happy to pay the juice. Martin has gone over in four straight games – and six of his last seven – and he should continue to see at least 35 minutes tonight, especially as Miami compensates for the absence of Gabe Vincent.
Other leans: Al Horford O7.5 points (-120); Jayson Tatum most threes made (+175); Marcus Smart O9.5 AST+REB; game total O215.0 (-110)
Kyle Lowry over 11.5 points (-115) at Boston
FanDuel Sportsbook, 1:00 p.m. EST
Michael Gillow: With Gabe Vincent, Tyler Herro, and Victor Oladipo all out for the Heat, Lowry will likely be asked to generate a lot of offense for the Heat. Especially considering Vincent is averaging 17.5 points through the first four games of the series, the veteran Lowry should take on some of that scoring load. Lowry has already scored at least 12 points six times this postseason, and all of those instances have been when he's coming off the bench.
