This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have a compact two-game slate Thursday, which means our lineup-building approach must change drastically from the last two nights, when there were at least eight games on the ledger. We also have a couple of big names out for the Warriors, although that does help open some value plays we can exploit.
Slate Overview
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Point spreads offer us some reason for optimism Thursday, as both check in at under five points as of early Thursday. Notably, the Warriors are home underdogs, largely due to the absences of Stephen Curry (knee) and Draymond Green (suspension).
Both projected totals are under 228 points, so there could be somewhat of a premium on elite-level individual performances.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Stephen Curry, GSW (knee): OUT
Curry's second straight absence should lead to another start for Chris Paul, who filled in Tuesday for the star point guard and scored 35 FD points.
Draymond Green, GSW (suspension): OUT
Green's suspension should lead to plenty of extra opportunity for Jonathan Kuminga and Dario Saric.
Other notable injuries:
Tyler Herro, MIA (ankle): OUT
Ben Simmons, BKN (hip): OUT
Elite Players
We have two players with five-figure salaries on Thursday's slate – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($11,300) and Bam Adebayo ($10,000).
Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 54.4 FD points or more in four straight games, including a pair of tallies over 60, and he won't have to worry about facing Curry in Thursday's contest.
Adebayo's salary has vaulted into the five-figure level thanks to some outstanding recent play, as he's scored between 51.2 and 67.8 FD points in five consecutive contests. That means his stellar production precedes Tyler Herro's ongoing absence due to an ankle injury, and he faces a Nets team he already posted 50.3 FD points against in the one prior meeting with Brooklyn this season.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Jimmy Butler, MIA ($8,600)
Butler does have the upside of a much higher-salaried player, and he's coming off having scored a season-high 47.3 FD points against the Hornets on Tuesday.
Mikal Bridges, BKN ($8,000)
Bridges has an excellent floor that especially stands out in a small player pool like Thursday's, and he checks into Thursday having scored 38.2 to 48 FD points in five of the last six games.
Chet Holmgren, OKC ($7,800)
Holmgren is averaging 36.3 FD points per contest and he should be especially popular on the small slate with the typical dearth of centers with four teams in action.
Chris Paul, GSW ($7,000)
Paul responded to his spot start in place of Curry with 35 FD points against the Timberwolves on Tuesday, and the combination of his starting role and salary Thursday should keep him very popular.
Key Values
Duncan Robinson, MIA vs. BKN ($6,000)
Robinson has been a primary beneficiary of Herro's absence thus far, scoring 41.0 and 40.1 FD points in the first two games of his teammate's absence. The sixth-year pro has encouragingly logged 39 and 36 minutes in that pair of contests, and he should be in for another full workload Thursday against a Nets team allowing 44 FD points per game to two-guards, along with the fifth-most rebounds (7.7) and third-most assists (6.3) per game to the position. Brooklyn is also surrendering a 35.7 percent success rate from three-point range on the road, a full four points higher than at home.
Klay Thompson, GSW vs. OKC ($5,800)
Thompson could be in line for one of his vintage performances at a deep discount Thursday, which means rostering him could be the equivalent of catching the proverbial lightning in a bottle. Thompson owns a 24.6 percent usage rate without Curry and Green on the floor, and he's averaging 32.2 FD points per 36 minutes in that scenario as well. The Thunder also make for good targets, considering OKC is allowing the 10th-highest offensive efficiency rating to shooting guards (23.3), along with the fourth-most FD points per game to the position (45.7).
Dario Saric, GSW vs. OKC ($5,700)
Saric is another likely beneficiary of the Warriors' absences Thursday, especially considering he sees a team-high +4.8 percent usage bump when both Curry and Green are off the floor and averages a massive 45.6 FD points per 36 minutes in that scenario. Saric recorded 35.8 FD points against the Timberwolves in a start at center in a tough matchup against Rudy Gobert on Tuesday, and he now faces a Thunder squad that's allowing 38.5 percent three-point shooting to centers, along with a Western Conference-high 17.5 rebounds per game and 55.2 FD points per contest to the position.
