This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The Celtics are up against it in Game 6, and a loss by Boston will crown the Golden State Warriors as NBA champions. The Celtics do get the added boost of a home crowd for the sixth game of the series, but will it be enough to stem Golden State's offensive run over the past two games? We'll try to nail down the best bets for FanDuel's single-game offering.
For FanDuel single-game contests, participants are given five positions to fill. While two of them are normal (UTIL) spots, the remaining three allow for a multiplier to be given to the selected player. There are three tiers:
MVP - 2x
STAR- 1.5x
PRO - 1.2x
The common mistake made in this format is a lack of emphasis on the 2x player value and the over-valuing of the 1.2x multiplier. In reality, adding .2x to a player is not that significant, while picking the wrong 2x player will likely kill your chances of cashing. You can survive most misses at 1.2x and even 1.5x, but getting the 2x spot correctly is essential.
Unlike other sites, the salaries are not weighed according to the slot selected. All of FanDuel's salaries are static, meaning that no matter where you put a player, their value remains the same. This eliminates the challenges of CPTN format games where you must consider the overall value of the multiplied value as you fill a slew of utility spots. Instead, FanDuel's single-game contests are mostly about picking the top three scorers and rounding out the roster with two value utility players.
First, let's take a look at the winning lineup from Game 5 in one of FanDuel's more popular multi-entry tournaments.
MVP: Andrew Wiggins 107.2
STAR: Jayson Tatum 61.5
PRO: Draymond Green 33.12
UTIL: Klay Thompson 32.6
UTIL: Gary Payton 30
As you can see, placing Thompson or Payton in the multiplier would have yielded a similar result. Green is an outlier pick that has gotten little to no exposure for me in this series, and although Payton's salary remains low for this contest, he's a bargain compared to Green, who will almost always underperform as a scorer.
Curry won 54 percent of MVP selections in this contest compared to only 2.2 percent for Wiggins, so going with the Warriors' double-double threat was definitely the contrarian way to play after a sub-par night out of Curry. Curry's performance did allow for some of our secondary Warriors to shine, while Tatum was exactly where we expected him to be, performing aptly in the 1.5x multiplier.
Like Game 4, the Celtics' primary problem in Game 5 was coughing up the ball, and the Warriors were effective in turning the turnovers into scoring opportunities in transition. Ball security will be paramount for Boston, and if their defense can force enough mistakes, they'll have a chance to stay alive. The home advantage and the do-or-die scenario is going to skew most of my lineups in Boston's favor.
MULTIPLIER CANDIDATES
Jayson Tatum ($15,500) MVP, STAR
Stephen Curry ($16,000) STAR, MVP
Jaylen Brown ($14,000) STAR, PRO
Andrew Wiggins ($12,500) STAR, PRO
Big nights from Tatum and Brown will be critical to Boston's success. Although Brown carries slightly more risk, he's posted 30 or more FDFPs in three of his last four games and is usually rock-solid at home. I suspect that Curry will bounce back in Game 6 and dominate more of Golden State's box score, but not enough to negate a solid contribution from Wiggins, who's been effective in tamping down Boston's frontcourt alongside Draymond Green. It's a small list for the multiplier candidates tonight, but with the stakes this high, the top performers should be a bit more straightforward.
UTILITY CANDIDATES
Klay Thompson ($10,500)
Gary Payton ($7,500)
Derrick White ($8,500)
Jordan Poole ($9,000)
Grant Williams ($8,000)
The utility situation is a bit muddier. There are a few scenarios where we can fit Thomspon in via Gary Payton, but the result is a build that is solidly pro-Golden State. Using Grant Williams is intriguing, as his enthusiasm is a nice intangible to consider for heroics from the Celtics bench, but Derrick White is probably the go-to Celtic in this range. Right around now, you're probably looking up at Marcus Smart at $13,000 when it comes to playoff heroics, but his salary is difficult to fit, especially in the utility spots. The only way to find your way to Smart is to out someone like Payton or White in the multiplier, excluding Wiggins altogether. In almost every iteration with Brown, you're leaving too many points on the table.
CONCLUSION
It would be surprising if Tatum and Brown don't rule the roost for tonight's build. While the Warriors were convincing at home, this series is almost begging for a Game 7, and the home intangibles are definitely going to aid Boston. It's not enough to exclude Curry from the multiplier, but it's definitely something to consider if you believe in a Boston resurgence. Getting Tatum and Brown involved is nothing short of essential, however.
