NBA Draft Kit: Contract Year Players

Last season, Draymond Green put together the best season of his NBA career and was a fantasy star, all while chasing a big contract in the offseason, which he received from the Golden State Warriors as a restricted free agent. But is the Green scenario the norm or is it the exception? And who, this season, is on the final year of their deal and looking to get paid when the summer of 2016 rolls around, when basically every team in the NBA will have tens of millions of dollars to spend? Let's look at this idea a bit closer and check out what fantasy nuggets can be gleaned from the free agency class of 2016.

Below you'll find the players from last season who were playing in the final year of a contract and looking for a big pay-day – the very definition of a contract-year player. The fantasy rankings I've used are for eight category leagues on a per-game basis.

In compiling this list of free agents for the 2015-16 season, some of the potential restricted free agents will be signed to extensions before the deadline, preventing them from entering restricted free agency and obviously, not be candidates for contract-searching breakout seasons. As the deadline for extending rookie contracts is Oct. 31, a few days after the season has started (when fantasy drafts are happening), we won't know who is and isn't being extended. Last year, there were a couple of surprising non-extensions, notably Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard, so a few guys may not receive extensions and will be playing for a big pay day. The problem is, we just don't know who that will be yet.

The other thing to note from the above table is that of the 10 players who were either playing the last season of their rookie contract or on the qualifying offer, nine of the 10 posted career best seasons, making the players heading into the last year of their rookie deals intriguing targets for drafts.

Restricted Free Agents

Harrison Barnes – Barnes reclaimed a starting role under head coach Steve Kerr and was a key cog in the Warriors' championship run, but he was far from a fantasy star. Barnes ranked 142nd, which was his best season by a long way, so another jump is not something to be discounted.

Bradley Beal – Beal really turned it on in the playoffs, and if he can keep up that sort of form, he could easily be a top-50 player. As it was, Beal ranked 78th last season, but the young guard is one of my favorites to dramatically jump in the rankings. He'll likely be extended before the season, but the lack of financial motivation shouldn't impact his projected rise. In the playoffs, Beal averaged 23.4 points, 2.3 three-pointers, 5.5 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Even if he gets 80 percent of those numbers, I'd be happy.

Tarik Black – While the Lakers got better at center by adding Roy Hibbert, we all know of his limitations and proclivity for collapsing, so Black, who impressed at times last season, could get decent run. He ranked 289th last season in his first year, splitting time between Los Angeles and Houston, but deeper leagues should pay attention as a top-200 finish could happen.

Jordan Clarkson – We already saw what Clarkson could do last season, when he averaged 16.7 points, 0.9 three-pointers, 4.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.0 steals per game after the All-Star break. As a second-rounder, he didn't have the guaranteed four-year deal to rely upon, so he is up for restricted free agency early, but I'd be a little cautious expecting him to repeat what he did in the season's final months. With D'Angelo Russell, Lou Williams, Nick Young and, of course, Kobe Bryant back in the mix, Clarkson won't have it all to himself. A decent contract is coming, but for him to better his rank of 44 post All-Star, a lot will have to fall his way.

Allen Crabbe – Crabbe was hardly impressive last season, even when he did start in place of Nicolas Batum, but with so many players gone in Portland, someone has to step up. The third year man ranked 372nd last season, but with an increased opportunity, he could potentially jump himself into the top-200 conversation.

Andre Drummond – Like Beal, Drummond is a near lock to get extended before the season, especially with how the decision to not extend Greg Monroe worked out for Detroit. Drummond is a borderline top-10 player in H2H leagues, but he is also borderline undraftable in rotisserie formats due to his horrible 39-percent shooting from the free-throw line. Drummond is a star in the making, but make sure he fits what you are trying to do with your fantasy team.

Festus Ezeli – With Andrew Bogut falling out of favor during the NBA Finals, Ezeli has a chance, albeit small, to really find his role this season. Ezeli averaged only 11 minutes per game last season, but he was battling injury, and his per-36 numbers are worth looking at: 14.4 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game with 55 percent shooting from the field. He's a name to keep an eye on, particularly if Bogut struggles and falls prey to the injury bug again.

Evan Fournier – Inexplicably, Fournier is one of my favorite players in the NBA, so I'm hoping he can have a breakout, but the odds of it happening appear unlikely. With the addition of Mario Hezonja and C.J. Watson, Fournier will need to star to cement a decent role, and as it stands, he's way out of standard league calculations. But, we know that money is a big motivator, so he could improve upon his ranking of 183 from last season, particularly when the worst he has shot from three in his career is 38 percent.

Maurice Harkless – Like Crabbe, Harkless has a big opportunity for minutes in Portland, and from I've been told, he will be their starting small forward when the season kicks off. Harkless was M.I.A. last season in Orlando, seeing his ranking drop from 194 to 380, playing just 15 minutes per game, but a new coach, system and city might be all it takes to motivate him into a career year. He's someone on my watchlist for sure.

John Henson – Although almost surely a backup when everyone is healthy, Henson has an opportunity to perhaps get a big dose of minutes to start the season while the Bucks await Jabari Parker's return. Henson, for whatever reason, has never been able to nail down consistent minutes despite the injuries that have been occurring in the Bucks' frontcourt over the past few seasons. Henson averaged just 18 minutes per game last season, but he still blocked two shots per game and grabbed 4.7 rebounds in his limited run. The talent is there, but will the staff grant him the opportunity that all fantasy hoops players are hoping for?

Terrence Jones – No more Josh Smith in Houston should mean a big time breakout for Jones, who was limited to just 33 games last season. He played only 27 minutes per game and has a very fantasy-friendly game, ranking 88th in games he played. But, my concern with Jones is the presence of another restricted free agent-to-be: Donatas Motiejunas. I always get the feeling that Houston prefers D-Mo to Jones, so that may hamper the latter's development. Still, Jones is worth a look because the top-50 potential is definitely there.

Meyers Leonard – As with Harkless, Leonard has the opportunity in Portland to get minutes and put up big numbers. Someone has to take LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez's minutes and Leonard is in the box seat. In the playoffs, he was playing over Lopez and averaged 7.8 points, two three-pointers, 6.6 rebounds, 0.4 steals, and 0.4 blocks in 21 minutes per game. If he gets to 30 minutes, which is a realistic goal, he'll be a top-100 player. I like him a lot for this coming season.

Donatas Motiejunas – As I mentioned above, Motiejunas will have to battle Jones for the main role, but even if he doesn't start, you'd have to imagine he gets close to the 29 minutes he averaged last season. Not only can he start at the four, but he will back up Dwight Howard at center as well. His 125th ranking last season was clearly a career-high and assuming his back injury is fully healed, he's a key candidate for a big breakout.

Dwight Powell – Not much in Powell's rookie season would lead anyone to think that he could be relevant in fantasy leagues this season, but after watching him dominate Summer League, combined with Dirk Nowitzki's advancing age and lack of reliable big man options in Dallas, Powell could find himself thrust into the limelight at some stage this season. His per-36 minute numbers give an interesting insight into his well-rounded fantasy game, averaging 13.7 points, 0.5 three-pointers, 7.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks per game while shooting 46 percent from the field and 76 percent from the line. It's a long shot, but he's a name to keep in the back of your mind as he plays for his first big NBA contract.

Terrence Ross – Ross was a nightmare last season, seeing his numbers drop across the board. Now, with DeMarre Carroll, Norman Powell and Cory Joseph competing on the wing, Ross is in for a battle to prove he's worth a big deal next summer. He is now fully healthy after battling ankle problems, so he could burst out, but I'm a little hesitant in putting much stock into him come draft time.

Jared Sullinger – I have no idea what to make of Sullinger and the Celtics' front court rotation. Last season, I was all about Sullinger, and he responded with a career-best ranking of 86 before injury curtailed the end of his season, but the fact he averaged 0.9 three-pointers, 0.7 steals and 0.7 blocks per game were very encouraging. Now, with David Lee and Amir Johnson joining Sullinger, Jonas Jerebko and Kelly Olynyk, it's doubtful he matches his 27 minutes per game from a season ago. Of course, I still believe Sullinger is the most talented of that quintet and could force his way into 30 minutes, but a few attitudinal issues crept up last season and we may see Sully on a new team by February. He's going to get drafted a lot lower than last season.

Jonas Valanciunas – Valanciunas' ability to break out depends entirely on head coach Dwane Casey's rotations. Valanciunas would sit numerous fourth quarters last season for reasons only Casey fully understands, and despite the fact the Amir Johnson is now in Boston, we've heard whispers that Valanciunas will continue to ride the pine this season. Even with Casey's mismanagement of the Lithuanian big man, Jonas ranked 76th on the season in just 26 minutes per game, and boosted his blocks from 0.9 to 1.2, a not insignificant increase. If he were to get 30 minutes, the top 50 is in sight and I think he will take his game to another level this season.

Dion Waiters – Despite playing 28 minute last season between Cleveland and Oklahoma City, Waiters regressed significantly, finishing the season ranked 213th. With Kevin Durant's return and the drafting of Cameron Payne, it's hard to envisage a situation, injury excepted, when Waiters develops into a fantasy-useful player. But still, the motivation is there and he is still young, so all is not lost.

Tony Wroten – The poster child of the difference between good fantasy player and good real basketballer, Wroten's game is an assault on the senses in all the wrong ways. But, for fantasy the numbers can be huge. He is coming off an ACL injury, but when he played last season, Wroten averaged 16.9 points, 1.2 three-pointers, 2.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.6 steals per game, but he murdered your percentage categories. With no clear cut starter in Philadelphia, Wroten could start again at the point and rack up those counting stats, but be prepared to absorb some hideous efficiency numbers.

Other restricted free agents –Markel Brown, Jabari Brown, Lorenzo Brown, Cleanthony Early, Tyler Johnson, Perry Jones III, Jeremy Lamb, James McAdoo, Ray McCallum, Andrew Nicholson, Miles Plumlee, Phil Pressey, Willie Reed, Tyler Zeller.

Contract Options

Lance Stephenson (team option) – Stephenson is the proud owner of the NBA's only team option that is set to come up next offseason. He is due $9 million this season and next, and after the disaster in Charlotte, he'll want to have a big turnaround to stick with the Clippers. His role will be more akin to what he played in Indiana, but with the addition of Paul Pierce and Josh Smith as well, you have to feel like the ball won't be in hands often enough to allow for big fantasy numbers. Stephenson dropped from 75th in his last contract season all the way to 269th last season, and he shot a horrific 38 percent from the field, including 17 percent from three. You can take a risk on him in the last round of a draft, but I won't be.

Arron Afflalo (player option) – Afflalo was a disaster in Portland last season, and he was only marginally better in Denver. In his time in Denver, he ranked 103rd, but that dropped to 228th while in Portland. The good thing about his move to New York, coupled with his ability to opt out and cash in with the cap rise, is that he should be the unquestioned starter. He could be a top-100 player again, as things are aligning for a bounce back season.

Dwight Howard (PO) – Howard probably has one more go at getting a mega deal, which could command north of $30 million per season next summer, so the motivation to show he can still perform at an elite level is there. Howard is a write-off for roto leagues thanks to his 53 percent shooting from the line on 6.6 attempts per game to blow up your team's free throw percentage, but he can still be a head-to-head force if he stays healthy, a big if. That sort of money may be motivating him to turn back the clock to when he was the most dominant big in the game.

Jeremy Lin (PO) – Lin had a fantastic opportunity in Los Angeles last season. Unfortunately, he also had the worst coach in the NBA dictating how often he saw the court and that means he is now a backup in Charlotte. Lin believes he should be a starter in the NBA and this is his opportunity to show that. His ranking of 106 was only marginally worse than the 102 finish from his last season in Houston, so his play wasn't terrible, and if Kemba Walker suffers another injury, Lin will be a red-hot waiver-wire add.

Chandler Parsons (PO) – Parsons got himself a big payday last summer, and now can opt out and cash in again with the mega cap jump of 2016. It took him a while to gel with his new team, ending the season ranked 68th, which was much lower than his two previous seasons in Houston. With Nowitzki beginning his decline, Parsons should assume a bigger role, and with Deron Williams providing an upgrade over Rajon Rondo, he could be in for another top-50 season as he looks to get another big money contract.

Deron Williams (PO) – Speaking of Williams, even though he is still getting paid mega-bucks from Brooklyn, he can opt out of his $5 million deal in Dallas if he has a big season back in his home state. It's not hard to think that Williams could jump back into the top-50, after ranking 84th last season in just 31 minutes per game. It was just two seasons ago that he was a top-15 player, and while he won't get back to that point, a bounce back is something I think is a huge possibility.

Other players with player options –Andrea Bargnani, Caron Butler, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, David West, Derrick Williams.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Ryan Anderson – Anderson struggled last season, posting his worst fantasy finish in the last five seasons, ranking 135th at only 28 minutes per game. He still hit two three-pointers per game, but saw his three-point percentage dip to 34 percent, a career-low. With Anthony Davis and Omer Asik locking up the front court, Anderson appears set for limited minutes again, but if he could hit his triples at a better clip, he can be a valued specialist in the latter rounds of drafts, hoping to get a big contract.

D.J. Augustin – Augustin has been brilliant in the last two seasons when taking over for injured starters Brandon Jennings and Derrick Rose. Now in Oklahoma City, he'll be needing an injury to Russell Westbrook to be standard-league relevant again, but even in limited minutes, Augustin will be auditioning for another starter's role next season, so it would be prudent to keep an eye on him.

Nicolas Batum – Now, Batum is one of top handful of candidates to bounce back in a big way this season. Bothered by personal difficulties and a torn wrist ligament last season, Batum saw his scoring and shooting percentages dip, along with his ranking, down to 74th. The two previous seasons he'd been inside the top 35, and on a new team, desperate for someone to stretch the floor on the wing, Batum could easily be a top-30 player again, especially with the out-of-position stats he offers.

Mike Conley – The best point guard in next year's free agency class, Conley was bothered by a myriad of injuries last season, but he still saw his fantasy rank hold steady at 40. He'd be looking to command in excess of $20 million per year next summer, so I think Conley is in line for a big season, looking to lead the Grizzlies to the next step.

Luol Deng – Deng has suffered such a decline in his play recently that you'd be forgiven if you thought he was done. But, his ranking of 96th last season was actually higher than the 104th he finished the season before, and with the writing on the wall in Miami tanks to the drafting of Justise Winslow, Deng will be looking to play for new team next season. His scope to become a top-50 player is probably non-existent, but Deng will be playing for a playoff contender and may surprise some this season.

Kevin Durant –Kevin Durant is Kevin Durant. We know who he is, if healthy, and that's the only thing keeping him from a top-3 fantasy finish. Looming unrestricted free agency should play no bearing on his output.

Randy Foye – A forgotten man in Denver, Foye dropped to 214th last season after being the 82nd ranked player the season before, the first year of a new contract. With Ty Lawson in Houston and a new coach in Denver, Foye may be able to return some value this season, and he's a name no-one is talking about.

Eric Gordon – After a brutal start to last season, which included a serious shoulder injury, Gordon was the 89th ranked player over the season's last three months. The last time Gordon was playing for a big deal in free agency, he ranked 52nd, but that was in an injury-riddled nine-game season. On a team that is expected to run an up-tempo offense, Gordon could be in for a career year.

Jeff Green – Green has been a tease for the last four seasons – promising so much but failing to finish inside the top-100. The last time he was in the final year of a contract, Green turned in his worst fantasy season, ranking 131st in Boston after being traded there mid-season. He has the talent, but we've never seen him put it together.

Gerald Henderson – I mentioned a couple of Trail Blazers when talking about restricted free agents, and the same applies for Henderson, who has a chance to get minutes at the two or three, with both of last season's starters gone. Henderson's best fantasy season was in 2012-13, finishing 99th, and that was when he was a restricted free agent, so he has history of turning it up a notch when looking at the dollar signs. With a new opportunity, Henderson could be in line to be a sneaky, late-round fantasy pick.

Roy Hibbert – Is there a more maligned player than Hibbert? He struggled immensely in stretches the last couple of seasons, but in the final year of his rookie deal, Hibbert was the 66th ranked player in fantasy leagues. Now with the Lakers, he is almost the only competent big man and should see his minutes rise from the 25 he averaged last season. A bounce back is on the cards, as Hibbert will need to show his elite defense to get himself a big deal.

J.J. Hickson – Hickson is not a fun player to watch. That being said, he is now a season removed from ACL surgery and the Nuggets' starting center, Jusuf Nurkic, is recovering from his own knee surgery. Hickson's 2012-13 campaign saw him ranked 91st, the best in his career, and that was the last time he was playing with an expiring contract. Hickson will still have to battle Nurkic, Kenneth Faried, Joffrey Lauvergne and rookie Nikola Jokic, so his chances are limited, but his track record suggests we may see a spike from his 283rd ranked finish last season.

Nene Hilario– Nene played just 25 minutes per game last season, his lowest since 2007-08, but it may have escaped our memory just how good he was when he played for his current contract. Back in 2010-11, Nene was the 42nd ranked player, a far cry from the 175th he finished last season. With Paul Pierce no longer around to play stretch four, the Wizards may be forced to go back to Nene, though that appears unlikely, as Otto Porter will absorb some of the minutes there, as will Jared Dudley when he recovers from his back surgery.

Jordan Hill – Despite finishing just 138th in fantasy rankings, 2014-15 was actually Hill's best finish to date in his underwhelming career. Now in Indiana, on a team who lost both their starting power forward and center, Hill should be a starter again and can be a fantasy asset, looking to get back to the $9 million he earned last season in Los Angeles.

Al Horford – Despite the injuries that have destroyed two of Horford's last four seasons, he remains a solid fantasy option. Now with an expiring contract, he should command big money as one of the better players to become available. In Horford's last contract year, he ranked 25th, not far off the 31st ranked finish he had last season.

Al Jefferson – Jefferson suffered a terrible drop off in production last season, so in addition to a pay day, he'll want to prove that he still has what it takes to be an elite big man in the NBA. Jefferson's rank of 67 last season was his first finish outside the top-50 since his last full season in Minnesota, so the motivation is there is turn it around.

Brandon Jennings – Coming off an Achilles tear, it's going to be hard work for Jennings to really turn in a huge season, especially with Reggie Jackson now being paid like the man in Detroit. Jennings has been a very useful fantasy player, particularly for head-to-head leagues over his career, but, at this stage, we don't know when he'll be back or what role he'll play when he returns. It would be a brave man to put much stock into Jennings bettering his rank of 66 from last season.

Courtney Lee – Lee is a frustrating fantasy player in that he has had a world of opportunity in Memphis, but he hasn't been able to put up the numbers that should come with that playing time. Playing 31 minutes per game last season, Lee ranked 158th in eight-category leagues, so there is a large scope for improvement. It's worth noting that Lee's best fantasy finish was in 2011-12, just before his last contract expired.

Ian Mahinmi – With Roy Hibbert and David West gone, someone has to step up in the Pacers' frontcourt. Sure, Jordan Hill and Myles Turner have been brought in, but the position at center is wide open for Mahinmi to grab. Mahinmi has yet to crack 20 minutes per game in his career, but his per-36 numbers are encouraging, averaging 11.2 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 1.5 blocks. His ranking of 288th last season isn't something to be excited about, but if he finds himself with a prominent role, he could be of use for standard leagues as he plays for a new contract.

O.J. Mayo – I feel like Mayo is the most forgotten player in the NBA. It was only two years ago when he played 36 minutes per game for the Mavericks and was fantasy basketball's 57th-ranked player. Interestingly, that was the last time he was playing for a contract, and since then things have been a struggle. His 2014-15 campaign was an improvement, but with a bevy of young stars in front of him, it's unlikely he can top 30 minutes, and become a force again, unless an injury befalls one of the Bucks' talented wings.

Timofey Mozgov – Mozgov went from a dysfunctional situation in Denver to an Eastern Conference champion in Cleveland, but his fantasy value was still underwhelming. In Cleveland, head coach David Blatt limited Mozgov to just 25 minutes, down from the 26 he played in Denver, and with Anderson Varejao returning at some point, the scope for Mozgov to play many more minutes is limited. It was still his best season, ranking 119th for fantasy leagues, but despite the motivation on hand, Mozgov will be unlikely to break out unless an injury or two happens in the frontcourt.

Joakim Noah – Noah suffered a tremendous drop off in his play last season, falling from a ranking of 20th to 102nd, with a dip in every statistical category. Throw in his 15 missed games, a new coach and the rise of Nikola Mirotic, and Noah is going to have to pull out all of the stops to get his fantasy performances back to what we had seen over the past few seasons. A bounce back is not impossible, but it appears unlikely.

Rajon Rondo – Having failed his last contract season (2014-15) miserably, Rondo will be hoping that his sojourn in Sacramento reinvigorates his career. It was Rondo's worst finish since the 2007-08 season for fantasy leagues, ranking 99th, and also the first time since his rookie season that he failed to average over 10 points per game. He'll need to arrest his horrible slide in shooting percentages and get his assist numbers pushing close to double-digits to be a fantasy force, but the motivation should be there for him to resurrect his career.

Greivis Vasquez – There is a school of thought that General Greivis may push incumbent starter, Michael Carter-Williams, for his job after a draft day trade with Toronto. Just three seasons ago, Vasquez averaged nine assists per game for the then-New Orleans Hornets, before he was traded to Sacramento, and with lots of money flowing next summer, Vasquez may push himself into a prominent role again. He's a name to keep an eye on as the season kicks off.

Hassan Whiteside – The most surprising story of last season, Whiteside came out of nowhere to be a fantasy darling. He is going to get a gigantic pay rise next summer, and it's a fair bet he can improve on his numbers from last season (11.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in just 24 minutes per game) as he'll be likely to push close to 30 minutes this season. The chance that he goes off the deep end is still high, as evidenced by the ejections and disciplinary issues he faced last season, but Whiteside should foreseeably exceed his eight-category ranking of 50th next season.

Other free agents to be:Louis Amundson, Chris Andersen, Alan Anderson, Leandro Barbosa, Matt Barnes, Jerryd Bayless, Kent Bazemore, Steve Blake, Trevor Booker, Aaron Brooks, Kobe Bryant, Chase Budinger, Mario Chalmers, Earl Clark, Chris Copeland, Jamal Crawford, Samuel Dalembert, Dewayne Dedmon, Joey Dorsey, Jared Dudley, Raymond Felton, Danny Granger, Gerald Green, Udonis Haslem, Chuck Hayes, Kirk Hinrich, Richard Jefferson, Joe Johnson, James Johnson, James Jones, Chris Kaman, Ryan Kelly, David Lee, Jon Leuer, Cartier Martin, Quincy Miller, Mike Miller, E'Twaun Moore, Gary Neal, Steve Novak, Zaza Pachulia, Kendrick Perkins, Ronnie Price, Pablo Prigioni, Brian Roberts, Brandon Rush, Robert Sacre, Luis Scola, Ramon Sessions, Josh Smith, Jason Smith, Marreese Speights, Amar'e Stoudemire, Mirza Teletovic, Garrett Temple, Lance Thomas, Marcus Thornton, Anthony Tolliver, Evan Turner, Beno Udrih, Charlie Villanueva, Dwyane Wade, Gerald Wallace, Marvin Williams.

And that does it. The NBA's likely free agents-to-be. As we can see, there is some truth to the contract-year phenomenon, but by no means is it an absolute guarantee. It is just one factor that fantasy owners must weigh into consideration when assessing players' values and the potential for breakout seasons. Maximizing value in your draft is one of the easiest ways of winning your league, so grabbing the right guys that break out can make all the difference.