NBA Picks: Beginner's Luck is a Conspiracy

Nothing rattles the brain like a good conspiracy theory. The moon landing somehow continues to pop up in 2016, however, I am a believer that beginner's luck is non-existent, as evidenced by last week's 0-3 start to the season. I have been placing bets against the spread during the NBA season since I was old enough to legally do it in London...I mean Vegas. This year, though, I decided what a grand idea it would be to put in writing. The first rule of law is to put it in writing, the second rule of law is to put it in writing.

The Fight Club reference is as played out as "What's in the Box?!"...poor David Fincher.

Let us loathe together if you decided to go with my picks last week at what happened with under 30 seconds to play in the Wolves vs. Grizzlies opener.

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies (-2)

My pick: Wolves +2

Quote I regret: "Normally on opening night, with so much "potential" floating around all these teams heading into a brand new season, I would conservatively take the home team; however, Big KAT is about to be unleashed on the NBA."

4th Quarter, 0:14 -- Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)

98-96

4th Quarter, 0:13 -- Karl-Anthony Towns personal foul (Mike Conley draws the foul), Conley makes both.

100-96

4th Quarter 0:09 -- Ricky Rubio steps out of bounds turnover

WHY RUBIO, WHY?! Rubio sprained his right elbow against the Kings on Saturday, proving karma really does exist.

*Score and time breakdown via ESPN Play-by-Play

On to this week:

Raptors at Wizards (-1)

This line opened as a pick'em and is slowly moving in favor of the Wizards, although it is a very slight "favorite". DeMar DeRozan cashed in on a massive contract in the offseason, and while many pointed to inconsistent shooting during the playoffs, the USC product has put that behind him. DeRozan's 35.0 points per game on 53.8 percent shooting are the kind of numbers that GM's and owners drool over. The Raptors' backcourt can be the perfect complement, as seen in Monday's win over the Nuggets, when Kyle Lowry's shot was simply not connecting. Still, he was able to attack the basket and find DeRozan for an outlet when needed.

Let's combine some information about the Wizards through an over-reactionary three-game sample. With new head coach Scott Brooks, there is new system in place. Bradley Beal is logging a lot of minutes (good sign), but his output has been lackluster (bad sign). John Wall (back), landed awkwardly in the first game of the season but did not see any subsequent minutes restriction. The Wizards are 0-2 to start the season, and with their work cut out for them against a hungry Raptors team who will look to continue their strong scoring form, I have to give the edge to the road underdogs.

The Pick: Raptors +1

Thunder at Clippers (-7)

This will be a fun matchup. On one end of the floor you have a road runner in Russell Westbrook, who just joined elite company with a 100-30-30 stat line in his first three games of the season. Both teams are undefeated to start the year, and the Clippers also boast a 3-0 ATS record. One would think to go with the Clippers to continue to steamroll their schedule and have a sterling ATS record to go with it...WRONG.

It's just slightly too many points. If the line were a bit lower, I'd back the Clippers. However, DeAndre Jordan will find a tough matchup with Steven Adams, and Victor Oladipo has to bust out of his slow start to the season at some point, so maybe the fact that he got paid this week will help.

Seriously, NBA owners are handing out money like LeBron James handed out 3-1 lead cookies at his Halloween party.

The Clippers have been pulling away in the fourth quarter, which is the opposite of Clippers basketball in the past. Their wins have come against the Blazers by eight points, the (less-than-full-strength) Jazz by 13 points and the most recent victory came against the Suns by 18 points. The blowout against the Jazz was convincing end-to-end, but the Thunder have the talent to compete with even the top-tier opponents in the Western Conference, which in turn should make that fourth quarter pull-away more difficult.

The Pick: Thunder +7

Pistons at Nets (+4)

I don't like taking all underdogs or all favorites, so we will side with the Pistons giving four points on the road against the Nets. The Nets have been a surprising 3-1 ATS which contrasts their actual record of 1-3, but Andre Drummond is putting up jaw-dropping numbers on the glass and just grabbed 23 rebounds (not a typo) against one of the longest teams in the league in the Milwaukee Bucks. I probably undersell Brook Lopez as an overall talent, but offensively Drummond can reanimate possessions like Dr. Frankenstein. The Pistons have a +7 point differential on the season, while the Nets are struggling with a -7 differential. The four points imply a closer game than it really should be for Detroit, even coming in on the second night of a back-to-back set.

The Pick: Pistons -4