This article is part of our NBA Waiver Wire series.
One of the best ways to make money at the race track is to leverage your strongest opinions in as many ways as possible. Let's say you have a very strong feeling about a certain horse in a certain race. You'll want to bet that horse to win. But for a big score, you'll want to include that horse in other bets, on the top of an exacta, trifecta or superfecta, or as the key in a bet across multiple races. And so long as your opinion turns out right, you'll score in a variety of ways.
The same sort of thinking applies just as well to fantasy basketball.
As is so often the case, this little parable brings me to the Knicks.
Right now, the Knicks are in "partially smashed stink bug that pops back up into the bowl after being flushed" mode. (Sorry, tired of "dumpster fire" as metaphor.) They cannot defend opposing guards. They continue to play the likes of Sasha Vujacic over the likes of Jerian Grant. Their only win in recent weeks came when they caught Orlando in the second game of a back-to-back… and the Magic had run into the buzzsaw that is Golden State the night before. Even Kristaps Porzingis' run of Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month awards came to an end.
Oh, and Kurt Rambis is coach.
This is serious.
But how do you leverage an opinion like "wow, the Knicks are a horror show" into fantasy NBA success?
One of the best ways to make money at the race track is to leverage your strongest opinions in as many ways as possible. Let's say you have a very strong feeling about a certain horse in a certain race. You'll want to bet that horse to win. But for a big score, you'll want to include that horse in other bets, on the top of an exacta, trifecta or superfecta, or as the key in a bet across multiple races. And so long as your opinion turns out right, you'll score in a variety of ways.
The same sort of thinking applies just as well to fantasy basketball.
As is so often the case, this little parable brings me to the Knicks.
Right now, the Knicks are in "partially smashed stink bug that pops back up into the bowl after being flushed" mode. (Sorry, tired of "dumpster fire" as metaphor.) They cannot defend opposing guards. They continue to play the likes of Sasha Vujacic over the likes of Jerian Grant. Their only win in recent weeks came when they caught Orlando in the second game of a back-to-back… and the Magic had run into the buzzsaw that is Golden State the night before. Even Kristaps Porzingis' run of Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month awards came to an end.
Oh, and Kurt Rambis is coach.
This is serious.
But how do you leverage an opinion like "wow, the Knicks are a horror show" into fantasy NBA success? There are a couple of ways to play it:
1) Load up on guards that will be facing New York. Guys like Boston's Evan Turner (49 percent) and Avery Bradley (78 percent), Detroit's Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (71 percent), Denver's Emanuel Mudiay (59 percent) and Gary Harris (29 percent), and even the Suns' Ronnie Price (4 percent) will be primed for big performances in the next week alone. If you're a DFS player, you'd be crazy to ignore these matchups, but even season-long fantasy players should be streaming Knick opponents the same way you'd stream power-hitters visiting Coors Field.
2) Don't blame the collapse on Carmelo Anthony. Melo has actually been really good - statistically, anyway - during this stretch. In fact, the Knicks' stretch of horrible play might be an opportunity to wrest Melo away from another owner at a discount.
3) Don't look for the Knicks to make the move most would expect at this point - to start "playing the kids." Most other teams would have shifted rotations by this point; started featuring the likes of Grant and Langston Galloway and Jimmer Fredette in the backcourt, or taken an extended look at someone like free agent Tony Wroten. The Knicks are so committed to their offensive system that they'd rather play a thirtysomething retread like Sasha Vujacic, over a player with some talent and some upside who would be more comfortable running pick-and-roll (like, say, any guard under the age of 30.) Stop wasting a roster spot on Grant or Galloway; free up a space to stream Knick opponents.
No, I'm not a self-hating Knicks fan. Why do you ask?
Picks for the Week: Buyout Market Edition
Several high-profile players hit the market this week after contract buyouts. Some have been productive with their new teams, and some have yet to land new jobs.
Joe Johnson (72 percent) - Three games in Miami, and Johnson has been good, great, and then "meh." He's getting 30+ minutes per game, but he certainly won't be the focus of the offense, especially with Hassan Whiteside playing very well of late.
Ty Lawson (43 percent) - Set to land in Indianapolis and may be in uniform on Sunday; he should be a good fit as a backup to George Hill.
Kevin Martin (40 percent) - Was reportedly leaning towards the Spurs, but Manu Ginobili's quicker-than-expected recovery (see below) may
David Lee (28 percent) - Proving to be a very good fit in Dallas and is already posting double-doubles off the bench.
Chase Budinger (0 percent) - Will be cut loose by the Pacers to make room for Lawson, and he'll miss the deadline to sign with another team and be playoff-eligible. That's a mixed blessing, as it means he could land with a team (Phoenix is reportedly interested) bad enough to give him a substantial role right away.
More picks:
Derrick Rose (88 percent) - Playing really well when he's able to go, partly because he's picking up the offensive slack for Jimmy Butler. Temper your expectations - we probably won't ever see the MVP version of Rose again - but he also isn't a player that you can totally write off. Some may worry that Butler's return (which could come as soon as Saturday) might hurt Rose's production, but Rose might also benefit from having Butler pull defensive attention.
D'Angelo Russell (78 percent) - Classic case of "his season averages have yet to catch up with his recent play." This guy is more than justifying his draft position of late, and should absolutely be owned in most leagues.
Manu Ginobili (17 percent) - Reportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery from a really nasty injury; he could be back in action next week.
Michael Beasley (1 percent) - headed to Houston with Andrew Goudelock (0 percent) soon to follow - neither figures to get a ton of playing time but stranger things have happened.
Jodie Meeks (0 percent) - He's been out since the first week of the season, and will probably take a little while to find the touch on his jump shot, but his three-point shooting should be a nice weapon off the bench for Stan Van Gundy's squad.
