Sleepers
By Justin Phan
RotoWire Staff Writer
The term 'sleeper' has drifted further and further away from its originally-intended purpose over the past few years. It's become more of an overused cliché than anything, an excuse to promote young players with any semblance of upside.
Now don't get me wrong - many of the players who will take the biggest leaps in value this season fit the mold that I described above. The problem is that 'experts' are so quick to slap the 'sleeper' tag on these guys without actually comparing that player's ceiling value to his ADP (average draft position).
The poster child for this year's trendy mislabeled 'sleeper' is Anthony Randolph. The buzz around him over the past month has been unreal, to the point where he is on the verge of being overdrafted. It's not even mid-September yet and his ADP already has him as an early-to-mid-sixth round pick. There's no doubt that Randolph is talented and has enormous upside, but realistically, his break-even point is somewhere around the mid-fifth-round this year.
You'll see me purposely omit guys like Randolph and Louis Williams, who I think will have career years but will be overhyped to the point where they will no longer be bargains at their respective draft positions. Here's a list of guys who will continue to fly under the radar and net you a solid return on your investment come draft day.
Jason Richardson (preseason ADP: 54) and Leandro Barbosa (preseason ADP: 82)
This duo comes as a two-for-one sleeper special courtesy of coach Alvin Gentry. His revival of the up-tempo, 'seven-seconds-or-less' philosophy catapulted the Suns from sixth to first in offensive efficiency as they returned to their run-n-gun ways of the past, averaging 117.7 points per game on 51.8 percent shooting after the All-Star break. Two players in particular, Richardson and Barbosa, flourished under the new system of old and went on to post top-35 numbers during the second half of last season.
With Steve Nash at his best again, penetrating and kicking off pick-and-rolls, Richardson has been able to get the best of both worlds on his shot attempts: quality and quantity. He'll be the team's clear-cut second option on offense this season with Shaq gone and will have a legitimate shot at approaching 20 points and 2.5 treys per game. Keep in mind that Richardson is just one season removed from leading the league in treys with three a game. He has proven that he could put up big-time numbers when given the opportunity.
Barbosa took the biggest leap of all the Suns players, upping his per-game numbers across the board during the second half to the tune of 16.8 points, 3 assists, 3 rebounds, 1.5 treys, 1.6 steals, and 1.6 turnovers on 49.7 percent shooting from the field and 86.5 percent from the line. The run-n-gun system relies on players like Barbosa to shoot the gaps on defense and kick-start the transition offense, which explains why Barbosa saw a substantial increase in minutes under Gentry (22.4 to 27.2). His end-of-season averages should eerily resemble his '06-'07 numbers, which placed him in the top-30 in per-game value.
We also shouldn't automatically assume that Amar'e Stoudemire stays healthy for the duration of the season either. If he has complications with his eye and goes down for an extended period of time, Richardson and Barbosa would be near-locks for top-25 production.
John Salmons (preseason ADP: 74)
Salmons went on to have a quiet but extremely productive season, averaging 18.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.6 treys, and 1 steal on 47.3 percent shooting from the field and 83 percent from the line. He was a top-50 fantasy player last season, believe it or not, and his production remained extremely consistent despite having to adjust to a new team environment right after the All-Star break when he was traded to the Chicago Bulls. All signs point to an increase in output since he will be an even bigger part of the Bulls' offense this season with Ben Gordon jettisoned to Detroit. Salmons has proven that he can maintain his efficient shooting percentage with an increased workload, as his field goal percentage dipped less than half a percent last season even though he attempted about four more shots a game. With a good shot at surpassing 20 points and two treys per game while maintaining an ultra-efficient line, Salmons is in store for a career year and has an excellent shot at cracking the top-40. And to answer the doubters out there, no, I am not at all worried about Luol Deng significantly cutting into Salmons' numbers.
Luis Scola (preseason ADP: 92)
With their frontcourt in shambles after Yao Ming's potential season-ending foot injury, the Rockets will look to Scola to be the stabilizing force down low for them this year. Scola has proven that he is more than capable of assuming that responsibility, averaging 15.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.6 turnovers on 49.5 percent shooting from the field in the eight games (including the playoffs) that Yao missed last year. Scola will be at least the second option on offense this season as he is only one of a few players the Rockets have who can create his own shot. He won't rack up any blocks for you but he should be a consistent double-double threat game in and game out who won't hurt your free-throw percentage like many of the other second-to-third tier centers do (Biedrins, Bogut, Okafor).
Thaddeus Young (preseason ADP: 116)
Coming off an impressive sophomore campaign in which he almost doubled his scoring average, Young will be given every opportunity to succeed in coach Eddie Jordan's newly installed, pro-style Princeton offense. The Princeton offense is all about utilizing athletic swingmen and forwards by putting them in constant motion until a mismatch is created or a player is open off of a backdoor cut. Young fits the Princeton offense player mold to a tee, and his ability to score from both inside and outside will prove to be a major asset. There is concern that Elton Brand's return to the court will negatively impact Young production, but it should help him out more than anything. Brand will be utilized as more of a facilitator on the offensive end, kicking it out to players on the perimeter or finding backdoor cutters when he draws double teams in the post. Jordan will learn sooner or later that he can't effectively operate the Princeton offense with Samuel Dalembert or Marreese Speights in the middle. Brand will eventually slide over to center, which will allow for Young to take sole control of the starting power forward spot where he is more effective on the offensive end. There's a lot to be optimistic about when it comes to Young's value this as he should certainly improve on his '08-'09 per-game rank of 74.
DJ Augustin (preseason ADP: 148)
The Bobcats' decision to steer clear of signing free agent Allen Iverson was easily the biggest boost to Augustin's fantasy stock this offseason. Much of Augustin's value is tied to pure volume, which correlates directly with his minutes. He came up huge last season when he was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 17.8 points, 5.6 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 2.6 treys, and 1.1 steals on 46.7 percent shooting from the field in 38 minutes of action. Prorate his averages as a starter over a full season and you get top-25 value. You're simply not going to find a player with that much fantasy potential past the tenth round. With Tyson Chandler replacing Emeka Okafor as the Bobcats' starting center, the onus will be on the backcourt to carry the scoring load. Augustin should be an excellent source of treys and assists while providing a sizable positive impact in free-throw percentage and modest contributions in points and steals. Raja Bell still stands in Augustin's path towards receiving consistent starter's minutes, but he and his expiring contract will likely be dealt at some point during the season.
Article first appeared on 9/11/09
