Conference season is officially in full swing, as many prolific teams all around the country are set to battle against league opponents. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off later today.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Tennessee 
at Arkansas 
The weakest link in this matchup belongs to the Razorbacks' defense, which is soft in multiple areas. Off the top, Arkansas is far from elite in efficiency, ranking outside the Top 50 teams. Second, the Razorbacks are lackluster on the defensive glass, recording rebounds at a rate that ranks outside the top 180 teams. This is perhaps the most glaring concern for the home team, as Tennessee boasts the highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams.
This is critical in this matchup for obvious reasons, and because the Razorbacks haven't been as effective near the rim, allowing opponents to make 51 percent of their two-point attempts.
At the other end of the court, the matchup is much more even: Arkansas' potent offensive attack will face a lockdown Tennessee defense, a signature trait of the program under head coach Rick Barnes. Before this year, Tennessee had finished each season with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating that ranked in the top five among all D-1 teams. This year's team enters Saturday ranked 11th, so it's reasonable to expect this mark may improve as the season progresses. Either way, the Volunteers still have impressive numbers across the board. They have held opponents to the 10th-lowest effective field goal percentage allowed, while posting above-average marks in turnovers, rebounding, and free throws allowed.
There's a chance the talent of Arkansas will find a way around Tennessee's defense. Still, I'm betting the Vols' offense, powered by their exceptional rebounding abilities, will ultimately come away with the win.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tennessee +2.5
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UCLA 
at Iowa
In its first year under head coach Ben McCollum, Iowa looks nothing like what we're used to seeing. Instead of the lightning-fast, all-offense, no-defense approach of the past, the Hawkeyes are now at the other end of the spectrum.
Iowa enters Saturday with an adjusted efficiency rating ranked 21st nationally, which, if the season ended Saturday, would be Iowa's highest defensive rating since before the 15 years under former head coach Fran McCaffrey. Additionally, Iowa ranks among the 10 slowest D-1 teams in adjusted tempo, a stark contrast to the past, when Iowa consistently ranked among the fastest.
The key to the Hawkeyes' defense has been their ability to take the ball away, posting the fourth-highest turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. They are also decent in the paint, ranking in the top 120 in two-point field goal percentage allowed and rebounding. Iowa's defense outranks UCLA's offense in each of these categories, so it's hard to find many areas, if any, where the Bruins might have an edge over the Hawkeyes' defense.
The Bruins, meanwhile, do not have an elite defensive rating as we sometimes see from teams led by head coach Mick Cronin, but they've managed to clamp down against some of their most challenging opponents. For example, they held Arizona and Oregon to under 70 points each. One other note for the Bruins: they prefer to play at a slower pace, much like the home team, ranking 279th in adjusted tempo.
Given each team's playing style, I expect a low-scoring game. KenPom projects this matchup will have just 64 possessions, the fewest of any game remaining on UCLA's schedule. For these reasons, I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 137.5
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Florida 
at Missouri 
The reigning champs are once again poised to go dancing in March, but this year's squad lacks one key ingredient that could bite them in this game, if not long-term as well.
Specifically, Florida cannot reliably score from the perimeter. The Gators have made just 28 percent of their three-point attempts, a mark that ranks in the bottom 10 percent nationally. This isn't necessarily a fatal flaw, but it makes it difficult to win against any opponent with a strong interior defense. Missouri, coincidentally, has been lit up by opponents from beyond the arc but has fared much better inside the paint. The Tigers are holding opponents to 46 percent on two-point attempts, nearly in the top 10 percent nationally, so they have a fair chance at getting a stop on any given possession. On a related note, Missouri is a taller team than Florida, as the Tigers rank 10th in average height compared to 12th for the Gators, per KenPom.
When playing in the other direction, Missouri faces a significant challenge, but it excels in several areas that should help its cause. The Tigers are among the best shooting teams in the nation, making 61 percent of two-point attempts (14th) and 37 percent of three-point attempts, yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 13th nationally. Additionally, Missouri ranks in the top 20 in offensive rebounding percentage, another highly beneficial trait going into any matchup.
It's been almost two weeks since the Tigers' last game, which was also their worst performance of the season. I'm betting the lengthy rest period helped them reset, giving us a determined group to redeem themselves after their disastrous performance against Illinois. I'm taking the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Missouri +6.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Tennessee +2.5
- UCLA at Iowa - Under 137.5
- Missouri +6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
