This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Friday night is relatively quiet in the college hoops world, but thankfully, we still have a pair of Big Ten matchups to consider. Here are my predictions for the two marquee games on Friday evening.
UCLA 
at Maryland
The Bruins were flying high in mid-November, winning 10 of their first 11 games, including victories over Oregon and Arizona. They have since crashed down to earth, dropping three of their next four. The lone win in this recent stretch was a 65-62 triumph over Gonzaga, certainly an impressive defensive performance. However, UCLA is coming off a home game in which it allowed 94 points to Michigan, making this team appear much more questionable than a month ago.
The Terrapins, meanwhile, had a similar start to the season, winning 11 of its first 13 games, including victories over Villanova and Ohio State. Maryland then traveled to the Pacific Northwest for a road trip against Washington and Oregon, but it dropped both games, putting them on a two-game skid.
When UCLA has the ball on Friday, it will face an incredibly stout defensive team, as Maryland ranks 24th in defensive efficiency. This is substantially better than UCLA's offensive rating, which ranks 77th. Offensively, the Bruins are above average across the board, though that's not necessarily a good thing. They rank outside the top 100 in many important areas, such as effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate. The Terrapins' defense is similarly strong across the board, though they are far above average. Defensively, Maryland ranks in the top 50 of the nation in the same categories, giving us a team with no real weakness at this end of the court.
When Maryland has the ball, it will similarly face a tall task. UCLA has the fifth-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, though the Terrapins appear well-built to overcome it. The Bruins' key attribute is their ability to cause havoc, ranking second in defensive turnover percentage. This causes many opposing teams to falter, however, the Terrapins rank 16th in offensive turnovers and eighth in offensive steals, so they should be able to maintain their poise, especially when playing at home. Aside from taking care of the ball, Maryland is also great at shooting. The Terps have made 57 percent of shots inside the arc and over 36 percent from beyond it, yielding the 27th-highest effective field goal percentage.
With both teams having strong defenses, the biggest difference in this matchup is on offense. Maryland is substantially better at scoring, and it's playing at home on Friday. All things considered, I'm going with the home team in this one.
Additionally, given that both teams in this matchup are defensive-oriented, I also like our odds of seeing a low-scoring game. Under head coach Mick Cronin, UCLA has consistently played at a slow, methodical pace, and that is once again the case this year, ranking 240th in adjusted tempo. The same isn't necessarily true for Maryland, though the Terps do a good job of slowing down opposing teams, ranking 332nd in adjusted possession length on defense. The Bruins were held to 58 points in their last road game at Nebraska, and if Maryland's defense can hold up, we might see a similar final score where the first team to 60 wins. Either way, I'm also taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Maryland -5 and Under 139
Minnesota 
at Wisconsin 
The Gophers are coming off a crushing home loss to Ohio State. They had multiple opportunities to win the game at the end of regulation and overtime, but they blew it and lost by a single point after a second overtime period. Minnesota was desperate for a win before this defeat, and it seemingly emptied the tank in this game. It will be interesting to see how the team responds after such a demoralizing defeat. The Gophers are 0-4 in conference play, have zero quality wins, and rank 109th in overall efficiency. Needless to say, their outlook for the rest of the season isn't good.
In stark contrast, the Badgers have already accomplished quite a bit. They defeated Arizona, UCF, Pittsburgh, and Iowa, all while playing the 30th most difficult schedule, per KenPom. Wisconsin's only losses came against three teams that rank in the top 12 of KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and Friday's opponent is far from that standing. Much farther.
Minnesota's biggest problem is its offense. It ranks 159th in efficiency and has a similar or worse standing in effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding. The Gophers also struggle from the charity stripe, making under 62 percent, the seventh-worst free-throw percentage in the nation, and they are terrible from the three-point line, making 31 percent, the 274th-worst. Wisconsin's defense will probably need to improve if it makes a run in March, but its defensive efficiency rating isn't bad, ranking 61st. The Badgers limit opponents to the 54th-lowest effective field goal percentage, so they're still forcing tough shots even though they don't force many turnovers.
Wisconsin's forte, on the other hand, is its offense. It ranks 12th in efficiency, and it gets to take on a defense that hasn't played well. Minnesota ranks 107th in efficiency and falls below average in critical areas such as turnover percentage and defensive rebounding. A poor defense is never ideal, and it's even worse in this instance. The Badgers dropped over 100 points on Arizona and Iowa, so they're capable of a points explosion on any given night, and the Gophers aren't the most capable defensive team.
Looking at the bottom line, these two teams are on different levels.
Minnesota gets torched on the road.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin -13.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Maryland -5
- UCLA at Maryland - Under 139
- Wisconsin -13.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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