This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Now on a seven-day profitable streak, here are my bets for a Friday that brings us another small late, although at least we have a heavyweight clash on tap.
New Mexico at 
New Mexico State
Now in his third year leading the team, head coach Richard Pitino has New Mexico playing its best basketball since he arrived. New Mexico is riding an eight-game winning streak and has scored at least 90 points in six out of 10 games. And even more meaningful, New Mexico ranks in the top 40 of the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, giving us a well-balanced team that doesn't have many weaknesses. The same cannot be said for the Lobos' opponent on Friday.
The once proud New Mexico State basketball program has fallen on hard times since head coach Chris Jans left following the 2021-2022 season. Last year, the Aggies canceled their season in February due to severe off-the-court issues, and, long story short, now they have a new head coach and a completely new roster. Unfortunately, the season has not gone well, especially in its two most recent games. Nearly two weeks ago, New Mexico State traveled up I-25 and got crushed by New Mexico, 106-62. Then, in their next game, the Aggies played Northern New Mexico, a sub-D1 team, and narrowly won at home, 76-71.
Looking at how these teams match up against each other, it's easy to see why the Lobos dominated in the first game between these two. New Mexico State ranks among the worst in the nation in several defensive categories, such as 355th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 362nd in free-throw attempt rate. We also see similar rankings on offense though not quite as severe. Considering the numbers, and the Aggies' recent performances, it's hard to imagine the outcome not looking similar to the first game. I'm laying the points with the Lobos in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico -15
Connecticut vs. 
Gonzaga
These two teams don't need much introduction.
Connecticut has seemingly maintained its national championship form and has steamrolled all but one opponent this season, a four-point road loss at Kansas. The Huskies have won every other game by at least double digits, and rank near the top of the country in several specific categories. UConn has the highest two-point field goal percentage among all D1 teams, the third-highest offensive efficiency rating, and ranks in the top fifteen in rebounding percentages on both ends of the court. Five-star freshman Stephon Castle also recently returned to the lineup after missing almost a month due to injury, so it's probable this team will continue improving.
Gonzaga has also lived up to its lustrous reputation for most of the season, although it's also shown vulnerability against certain teams. Specifically, Gonzaga has not looked sharp when going against tough defensive teams. The last time the Bulldogs faced a team ranked as high as UConn in defensive efficiency, Gonzaga only put up 63 points in a loss against Purdue. The Bulldogs also played UCLA, which ranks 21st on defense, and they mustered up 69 points in a four-point victory. Recent game results are more concerning, however, as Gonzaga recently lost straight up to Washinton, 78-73, and then only put up 78 points against Mississippi Valley State, which ranks 352nd on defense. We don't want to minimize scoring almost 80 points, but something seems askew considering Gonzaga put up over 80 points against much better defensive teams earlier in the season.
When comparing these teams side-by-side, UConn ranks much higher in offensive turnover percentage and free-throw attempt rate, two categories that are often critical in determining the outcome of a game. Given these advantages and Connecticut's impressive track record, I'm laying the points with the Huskies in this matchup.
Additionally, I'm also betting we'll have a low-scoring game. As explained above, Gonzaga has not scored its usual amount of points when facing elite defensive teams, and it's also been a quality defensive team in its own right. And considering the heavyweight nature of the matchup, one would expect the defensive intensity will be turned up an extra notch. For these reasons, I'm also taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: UConn -5.5 and Under 150.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- New Mexico -15
- UConn -5.5
- UConn at Gonzaga - Under 150.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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