This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got a slim offering on Friday's college hoops card, but nonetheless, we still have several high-profile teams stepping onto the hardwood. Here are my predictions for a trio of games.
Providence 
at Villanova 
The Friars didn't look great in their recent loss to Creighton, though they had been playing better leading into it. Providence had scored at least 84 points in three straight games before its loss, seemingly turning a corner after a rough start to the season. The Friars may be putting up points in recent games, but their defense is not cooperating. In its last six conference games, Providence has allowed at least 72 points in all but one game, the exception being an 84-65 win against Butler.
The Wildcats have a similar issue on their hands, losing their last two games, both on the road. For Villanova, the problem has persisted all season long. It is among the best-scoring teams in the nation, but it's also struggling to get stops. The Wildcats have the 11th-highest offensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams, but they also rank 169th on defense. You're hard-pressed to find a team with more extreme offensive-defensive splits.
Providence doesn't boast the same offensive firepower as Villanova, but it matches well against the Wildcats' defense. The Friars rank 83rd in offensive efficiency, not special by any means, but still much better than Villanova's defensive standing. The Friars also have an ace in their pocket that will likely come in handy, the ability to clean up the offensive glass. Providence ranks 39th in offensive rebounding percentage, again noticeably higher than Villanova's defense, which ranks 117th in rebounding. Aside from this important category, the Friars' offense also outranks Villanova's defense in effective field goal percentage, free-throw attempts, and three-point field goal percentage.
Speaking of three-pointers, Villanova is among the best shooting teams in the nation. The Wildcats have made over 41 percent from beyond the arc, and they're attempting three-pointers at the 73rd-highest clip, making them a dangerous offensive team in most matchups. Impressively, the Wildcats have improved their shooting since the conference season started. Villanova has made over 42 percent of three-pointers against Big East opponents, further solidifying its standing as the best offensive team in the conference. The Wildcats rank first in the Big East in offensive efficiency and second in effective field goal percentage and offensive turnovers since league play began. In the same period, Providence hasn't been awful, though it hasn't stood out, either. The Friars rank sixth in defensive efficiency among Big Teams and have a similar or worse standing in turnovers, free-throw attempts, and two-point field goal percentage allowed.
Overall, Villanova's potent offense makes it a tough team to fade, though its loose defense also makes it tough to back. Given that both teams are better on offense, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm on the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 141
DePaul 
at Georgetown
The Blue Demons are reeling. They began the season on a positive note, winning their first seven games, more than doubling their win total from last season before they even lost a game. But then, reality brought them back to earth. DePaul has lost nine of its last 11 games, including the last five straight. It's worth noting that it lost three conference games in overtime, including its most recent game against Big East juggernaut Marquette. The Blue Demons might not win on Friday, but they're clearly desperate for a win.
If it's going to happen, it will be on the strength of its offense. DePaul isn't the most efficient offensive team, ranking 113th on KenPom's chart, though it's particularly skilled at long-range shooting. The Blue Demons live and die by their three-point shot. They have made over 37 percent of shots from beyond the arc, and they're shooting them at the 15th-highest rate among all D-1 teams. Given these splits, it's no surprise that DePaul scores over 42 percent of its points off three-pointers, the fourth-highest mark in the nation. The Blue Demons also sport the fourth-highest assist rate as a team, so they know how to find open looks, even if they don't always make them.
The skill is extremely important in this matchup because of who they're facing. The last time Georgetown played a game, I picked them to cover against St. John's primarily for one reason. The Hoyas have elite interior defense, while the Johnnies seldom attempt threes and don't often make them. Sure enough, Georgetown nearly pulled the upset, but faltered, mainly thanks to its own shooting woes. Either way, they covered without breaking a sweat. With their recent performance, the Hoyas are now impressively holding opponents to under 42 percent on two-point attempts, the fifth-best mark among all D-1 teams. They aren't quite as stout on the perimeter, however, allowing opponents to make almost 33 percent.
Looking at the other end of the court, Georgetown's offense has struggled somewhat, but the same is true for DePaul's defense. The Blue Demons have allowed at least 77 points in their last six conference games, and it's easy to see why when digging into the numbers. Since the conference season started, DePaul ranks second-worst in the Big East in defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, and defensive rebounding. These are all terrible traits, though the latter is most liable to burn it on Friday. Georgetown isn't the best at scoring, but it ranks fourth in the Big East in effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate against league competition.
Georgetown will most likely win this game, especially playing at home, but DePaul's offensive style gives it a puncher's chance in any game. It's hard to imagine the Blue Demons beating Marquette in any circumstance, and yet they took the latter into overtime and lost by two points despite making 12-of-32 (.375) from beyond the act. All things considered, I prefer our odds of getting a high final score. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 142.5
Boise State 
at New Mexico 
The Broncos have assembled a curious resume. They defeated Clemson and Saint Mary's during the non-conference season, and yet they've lost all other games against quality teams, not including a loss to Boston College, which perhaps surprisingly, ranks 202nd in overall efficiency. Either way, Boise State has won five of seven conference games, keeping them in a position for a chance to win the regular season conference championship.
The Lobos are one step ahead for the regular season MWC title, winning six of seven conference games. Their resume isn't perfect, but they challenged themselves with the 68th-most challenging schedule, per KenPom, and collected six quality wins along the way.
New Mexico's key to victory in this matchup is its defense. Boise State is proving to be among the best offensive teams in the Mountain West, but the Lobos are built to counter it. During league play, the Broncos' offense ranks first in the MWC in efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and offensive rebounding. This is impressive and all, although New Mexico's defense effectively matches them, ranking third or better in the same categories. The Lobos are especially stout in the paint, holding MWC opponents to under 43 percent on two-point attempts, the best mark in the league.
When playing in the other direction, we again have a tight matchup, though the Lobos stand out in a couple of key areas. Namely, they're the most careful team in the league, boasting the best offensive turnover percentage in the MWC, and they're good at drawing contact, ranking fifth in free-throw attempt rate. The Broncos' defense ranks eighth in the conference in turnover percentage and free-throw attempt rate allowed, giving New Mexico two distinct advantages when playing offense.
All things considered, New Mexico has the better track record this season, and it's playing at home. There's a chance Boise State will keep the game to a single possession, but I like the Lobos' odds of running up the score in The Pit. I'm taking the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico -3.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Providence at Villanova - Over 141
- DePaul at Georgetown - Over 142.5
- New Mexico -3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
