This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have an abbreviated college hoops slate for Friday's action, but thankfully we still have a few games on the board. Here are my predictions for a pair of matchups on Friday.
Georgetown 
at Xavier 
Georgetown opened the season with low expectations, understandably so considering it has a new head coach in Ed Cooley after a couple of years of residing in the cellar of the Big East standings. Unfortunately for the Hoyas, the low bar of expectations proved to be too high. They started the season at No. 163 on KenPom's efficiency chart, and have since slid down to No. 173. Georgetown has now lost five of six conference games, and its only win came at home against DePaul, when it survived 68-65.
As one can see, Georgetown has major issues. The defense has been lackluster for most of the season, 276th in efficiency, but the offense has disappeared since the conference season started. For the whole season, the Hoyas' offense ranks 112th in efficiency, but against Big East competition, they rank second-worst in the conference. Additionally, they also have the lowest effective field goal percentage and second-lowest two-point field goal percentage in the league. This lack of scoring combined with their extremely slow tempo, the slowest in the conference during league play, is leading to low-scoring outputs.
Xavier, in contrast, has gradually improved throughout the season, especially in recent games. Xavier has now covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games, according to Action Network. The Musketeers started at 34th in overall efficiency, and now they're up to 26th, giving us a team that's on an upward trajectory. Their recent results back this up, too. This past Saturday, Xavier blew out Providence on the road, 85-65, then came home and easily handled Butler, 85-71, arguably its two best wins of the season. Going a little further back, even though Xavier lost its first two games in 2024, the first was by a single point at Villanova, 66-65, and the second was a close loss to UConn, 80-75, so the Musketeers have been playing great basketball for several weeks now.
In projecting how Friday's game will unfold, Georgetown will likely struggle to score points. As mentioned above, the Hoyas have had noticeable offensive trouble in recent games, and now they have to face a Xavier team that has the 25th-most efficient defense in the country. Georgetown has faced other teams this season with similarly stingy defenses, and it never went well. The Hoyas scored 60 points against Rutgers, 51 points against Marquette, 60 points against Creighton, and 67 points against UConn, all teams with comparable defensive efficiency numbers to Xavier. Going in the other direction, Xavier has another substantial advantage. Georgetown hasn't played well on good defense for most of the year, ranking 276th in efficiency, so Xavier should be able to put up points without too much trouble, assuming it plays up to its usual standards.
It's tempting to lay the points with Xavier, but any college hoops fans know that conference games are often not as easy as they might appear. On paper, the line is fair and Xavier should win handily, however, strange things can happen in the world of college sports. Therefore, I prefer our odds with a low-scoring game, instead. The Hoyas have struggled to score, and they play at an extremely slow pace. Two key ingredients for an under bet. All six of Georgetown's conference games have had final scores under Friday's betting total, and I'm betting the seventh game will follow suit. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 149
UNLV 
at Colorado State
UNLV played well in its last game, a resume-building victory over Boise State. The Rebels now have three quality wins on the season, but unfortunately, that's all they've got. Despite the highlights, UNLV has not played consistently at all. The Rebels have not won back-to-back games over D1 opponents since the first week of the season when they beat Stetson and Pepperdine in consecutive games. When UNLV does play well, it's often because of its strong offensive attack, ranking 43rd in efficiency. The defense is a problem, though, ranking 146th in efficiency.
Colorado State, on the other hand, has been as steady as they come. The Rams started the year at 9-0 before tripping against Saint Mary's, 64-61. Colorado State then won its next four games before dropping back-to-back games during its recent road trip to Utah State and Boise State. Both matchups would've qualified as high-quality victories, per KenPom, and the Mountain West is extremely competitive at the top this year, so the outcomes are understandable. Head coach Niko Medved is now in his sixth year with the team, and he's turned them into a scoring machine over the past few years. The Rams enter Friday with the 19th-highest offensive efficiency rating, hardly a surprise considering they finished two seasons ago at No. 24, before last year at No. 59.
Based on the strengths of these two teams, I'm betting Friday's game will turn into a high-scoring battle. When comparing these teams against each other, Colorado State's offense easily stands out as the best unit on the court. It is also facing the weakest unit on the court, UNLV's defense, giving the Rams a substantial advantage when they have the ball. At the other end, UNLV will enjoy an advantage as well, although a much smaller one based on the efficiency rankings. It's worth pointing out, however, that the Rams are incredibly stout inside the paint, holding Mountain West opponents to 45 percent on shots inside the arc, the lowest in the conference. UNLV scores over half its points off two-point attempts, so this defensive strength could make all the difference.
Given how these teams match up against each other, I'm laying the points with Colorado State and also taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 145 and Colorado State -7.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Georgetown at Xavier - Under 149
- UNLV at Colorado State - Over 145
- Colorado State -7.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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