This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday brings us a loaded college hoops slate with many notable teams taking the court. Here are my predictions for some major conference action taking place later in the day.
BYU 
at Central Florida
BYU closed out 2023 with a 12-1 record, but it has since dropped back-to-back games, both against Big 12 opponents. Now that the conference season started, the Cougars are suddenly finding it much more difficult to score, putting up 60 points in a home loss to Cincinnati followed by 72 points at Baylor. BYU had played at an elite level on both ends of the court before this recent losing streak, and it still sits in good standing, ranking in the top 20 of KenPom's efficiency standings on both offense and defense.
UCF, in contrast, is coming off one of its biggest wins in the last couple of years, taking down Kansas by a score of 65-60. The Knights got the job done with a lockdown defensive effort, something they've done all season long, ranking 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. As great as they've played on defense, the other side of the court is a completely different story. UCF has the lowest offensive efficiency rating among all Big 12 teams, so the Knights will need to improve their scoring output for any success in their first go-round in the Big 12.
When projecting how this game will unfold, it's hard to foresee a high-scoring game. UCF doesn't have many weaknesses on defense, as Kansas just found out, and the Cougars will be on the road, so if they win, it will likely require a gritty performance.
For UCF to win, the recipe is similar, likely needing another excellent defensive performance considering the weak offensive numbers. Given its strengths and weaknesses, it's no surprise to see that UCF is an under-machine, with its game totals hitting the under in five of its last six games. After Saturday, I'm betting it will be six of seven games. I'm on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 144.5
Arizona 
at Washington State 
Despite dropping an early conference game to California, Arizona is playing like a true title contender, as most college hoops fans are undoubtedly well aware. That said, all three of the Wildcats' losses have come away from Tucson, so anything is possible on Saturday.
Washington State, meanwhile, is building off its best game of the season, an eight-point road win at USC. The Cougars also defeated Boist State earlier in the year, giving them a couple of resume-building victories. Washington State nearly defeated Oregon a week ago, as it was only down by two points with under a minute remaining, but the Ducks ultimately prevailed. The Cougars didn't get the win, but they were still competitive to the end.
It won't be easy, but Washington State has a fair chance at slowing down Arizona. On paper, the Cougars do several things well that make them well-equipped to counter the Wildcats' high-octane offensive attack. First, Washington State is among the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, ranking 14th in defensive rebounding percentage, a critical note because Arizona is among the best on the offensive glass, ranking 14th in that category. If the Cougars can maintain their usual effort with securing defensive boards, then they can take away one of Arizona's best strengths. Second, Washington State is also among the best when it comes to interior defense, holding opponents to 44 percent on shots from inside the arc, the 15th-lowest percentage allowed, again important because Arizona does most of its damage from inside the paint, making 56 percent of two-point shots, the 21st-highest percentage.
Going in the other direction, the Wildcats' defense is ranked among the best, but it hasn't been quite as sharp in games outside of Arizona. The Wildcats allowed 92 points against Purdue in Indianapolis, 81 points at California, and 100 points at Stanford. As good as this team has played all season, it's far from perfect. And for what it's worth, these two teams faced each other just over a year ago in Tucson, and Washington State pulled off the upset, winning 74-61.
All things considered, I like the Cougars' odds of staying in the game. They might not win, but given a large spread, I'll take the points with the home team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Washington State +9
Alabama 
at Mississippi State 
This matchup is a classic case of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness.
Alabama enters Saturday with the highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, and it's going against a Mississippi State defense that ranks ninth in efficiency. Moreover, the Tide's offensive game plan revolves around the outside shot, with three-pointers accounting for 39 percent of their total points, the 22nd-highest three-point distribution percentage in the nation. This kind of attack is challenging for most opponents, although as it turns out, the Bulldogs have displayed elite perimeter defense throughout the season, holding opponents to 27 percent on shots from behind the arc, the fifth-lowest percentage allowed among all D1 teams. It's hard to bet against Alabama's offense, but if there's ever a team that could slow them down, Mississippi State seemingly has all the tools.
When the Bulldogs have the ball, we again have an even matchup, although for different reasons. Neither team has been consistently good on this side of the court, as Mississippi State has had trouble scoring while Alabama has had trouble getting stops. Mississippi State only has three losses on the season, and all were due to a lack of points. The Bulldogs failed to crack 60 points in losses to Georgia Tech and Southern, and then more recently lost to South Carolina by a score of 68-62. Alabama, on the other hand, allowed at least 85 points in all five of its losses, although to be fair, all of the losses came against potential NCAA tournament teams such as Purdue, Creighton, and Arizona, to name a few. Even though this has been the team's major weakness, it's important to note that the Crimson Tide's defense has stepped up in recent games, holding Liberty to 56 points and South Carolina to 47 points in their last two home games.
It's tempting to take the home team, but ultimately I prefer our odds with a low-scoring game instead. These teams faced each other two times last season, and the total score fell well below the total number for Saturday's game in both instances. Alabama won both games, first at home, 78-67, and then on the road, 66-63. The Bulldogs have a significant amount of returning minutes from last year, ranking 54th in roster continuity, so these past results perhaps hold more weight than usual. In any event, based on how these current teams match up against each other on Saturday, I'm betting that we'll once again have a low final score. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 154.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- BYU at UCF - Under 144.5
- Washington State +9
- Alabama at Mississippi State - Under 154.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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