This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The conference season heats up on Saturday's college hoops slate as many prominent teams take to the court to battle league foes. Here are my predictions for a few noteworthy games.
Iowa State at 
Oklahoma
Iowa State enters the Big 12 campaign with an excellent record having won 11 of 13 games, with its only losses coming against two potential tournament teams in Virginia Tech and Texas A&M. They dominated their in-state rival 90-65 in its other matchup against a high-major conference team, so they appear ready for the extremely difficult league schedule that lies ahead.
Oklahoma shouldn't be overlooked as they've taken 12 of 13 games, including decisions over Iowa, Providence, and Arkansas. The Sooners stumbled against North Carolina a couple of weeks ago, proving they're far from invincible despite the near-perfect record.
Stacking these teams side-by-side, they're remarkably similar. They both play defense at an elite level with a good offense that's not great. That being said, Iowa State still slightly outranks Oklahoma in all three key efficiency categories: overall adjusted margin, offensive, and defensive. And the Cyclones carry one huge advantage that should give them a solid chance of leaving Norman with a win: turnovers.
Iowa State lists the second-highest defensive turnover percentage in the nation, a key stat because Oklahoma's biggest weakness is carelessness with the ball. The Sooners rank 230th in offensive turnover percentage, an awful stat when going against the Cyclones. The latter is much more careful sitting 56th in the same category to provide a strong likelihood of winning the turnover battle. On a similar note, Oklahoma tends to have shots rejected at 236th in offensive blocking percentage, another bad habit when facing Iowa State due to them blocking shots at the 64th-highest rate in the country.
Looking at the bottom line, the two teams are incredibly even. Even still, the Cyclones hold a small edge in several key categories and a gargantuan advantage in the turnover department. Considering how tight the margins are otherwise, I'm betting turnovers will make all the difference in this matchup. I'm taking the Cyclones.
College Basketball Best Bet: Iowa State +3
Ohio State at 
Indiana
Ohio State has won 12 of 14, including its last four to make them a formidable team as they enter the heart of the Big Ten season. The Buckeyes boast an explosive offensive attack, ranking 22nd in efficiency. And their defense isn't bad either at 56th overall.
Indiana isn't far behind Ohio State at 10-4, but the advanced stats paint a different picture. The Hoosiers rank outside the top-90 teams in offensive and defensive efficiency. Recent performances are even more concerning. Following a close loss to Kansas on Dec. 16, Indiana defeated Morehead State by a single point and then needed a late second-half run to defeat Kennesaw State after trailing 68-64 in the second half. And then in their last outing, the Hoosiers got crushed by Nebraska. The record doesn't quite show it yet, but Indiana's stock has plummeted significantly since the start of the season having entered the year ranked No. 50 on KenPom's overall efficiency chart and now at 94.
On paper, the Buckeyes have a gigantic advantage on the perimeter shooting 38 percent from behind the arc. And they'll be facing a Hoosier defense that has struggled to guard outside shooting by allowing opponents to make 35 percent of three-pointers to rank 263rd in the nation. This problem is magnified because Ohio State shoots the long ball at a high frequency as three-pointers account for 32 percent of their total points, the 130th-highest percentage among all D1 teams. They also offer a noticeable rebounding advantage ranking 31st in offensive rebounding percentage, and that should pay off Saturday as the Hoosiers aren't great at stopping them at 135th in defensive rebounding. A similar edge plays out in the other direction as Indiana ranks 217th in offensive rebounding while Ohio State sits 148th in defense.
All in all, the Buckeyes are simply the better squad. They've maintained a steady, high level of play throughout the season and list several key advantages over Indiana. I'm backing the Bucks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Ohio State -1.5
Oregon at 
Washington State
The Ducks are on a roll as they've won seven of their last eight games, including a 3-0 start against league competition. Oregon has shown great proficiency on both ends of the court and have made it tough to play against. But despite a string of quality performances, KenPom is still projecting a one-point loss for the Ducks when they travel to Pullman on Saturday.
The Cougars, in contrast, have lost three of five, though they defeated Oregon State by seven in their last outing and appear to be back on track following a tough road trip to the mountains last weekend when they lost to Utah and Colorado. The key for Washington State is defense. The Cougars are ranked 51st in defensive efficiency and have the potential to climb higher based on their recent record. A stout D has been the prominent feature since head coach Kyle Smith arrived before the 2019-2020 season, so it's possible they can still be coached up as the schedule progresses. Washington State finished top-30 in defensive efficiency in back-to-back years before finishing last season at 72.
Not much stands out when comparing these sides, other than the fact they're both well-equipped to defend. Oregon ranks above average in several shooting categories, yet Washington State is sixth in the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed, 19th in defensive rebounding, and top-40 in three-point percentage, two-point percentage, and blocking percentage against. On the other end, the Cougars don't list great shooting numbers while the Ducks similarly sit slightly above average in several defensive categories to also make this a stalemate.
I like our odds of a low-scoring battle. Another defining trait of Kyle Smith's teams in recent years is their penchant for slowing the game down. Washington State finished last season with a tempo ranked at No. 319, and this year are at 283. Based on the styles, strengths, and weaknesses of each team, I'm taking the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 139.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Iowa State +3
- Ohio State -1.5
- Oregon at Washington St. - Under 139.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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