This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The final Saturday of the college hoops regular season inevitably brings us a loaded slate, full of games that will undoubtedly affect seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Here are my predictions for a trio of matchups tipping off later in the day.
Miami 
at Florida State
Miami is in rough shape, entering Saturday on an eight-game skid. The Hurricanes haven't won in over a month and have only collected two road victories all year. Miami started the season with high expectations and were at one point ranked 40th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart after starting the season 5-0, but it's been a downward trend ever since. Their lowlight came on Jan. 10 when they lost at home to Louisville by nine points, a foreboding sign that makes recent results much less surprising.
Florida State hasn't fared much better, though it's still shown flashes of playing great basketball. The Seminoles defeated UNLV and Colorado in the non-conference season and then earned quality victories over Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and (at) Syracuse to boast several notable results even though they're not in the running for an at-large bid.
When comparing these teams, Florida State lists a key advantage at both ends of the court. When the Hurricanes have the ball, they have a major problem. Aside from the fact that they aren't efficient ranking fourth-worst in the ACC during conference play, they're also sloppy with the ball posting the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage. This is never a positive trait, but it's made worse by the fact Florida State's defense ranks first in the conference in defensive turnover percentage.
When the Seminoles have the ball, they again have a significant edge for two reasons. Their offense ranks seventh in the league in efficiency during conference play, a few ticks higher than Miami's defense at 10th. More importantly, the Hurricanes have experienced issues guarding the paint all season by allowing opponents to make 52 percent of shots inside the arc. This is great news for the Seminoles, as they do almost all of their damage inside the paint. Florida State is also making 53 percent of shots from two-point range against ACC opponents - the fourth-highest percentage in the conference - with those accounting for an ACC-best 59 percent of their total output during league play.
These teams previously met in Miami back on Jan. 17, and Florida State earned a decisive victory. The Seminoles jumped out to a 45-35 halftime lead and won by nine. Considering how Florida State matches up against Miami and the location of the rematch, I'm betting we'll see a similar result on Saturday. I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Florida State -3
Colorado 
at Oregon State 
Colorado is playing its best basketball at the most important time of the year riding a five-game winning streak while winning 10 of their last 14 games. They've also consistently done well throughout the season having come out on top in at least four consecutive matchups four different times while ranging between 20th and 37th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, thereby providing an incredibly high floor.
Oregon State, on the other hand, has endured a rough conference campaign. The Beavers defeated Utah in their last game, just their fifth league win of the year. Oregon State has only won back-to-back conference outings once this season, making it unlikely we see another strong performance - especially given the opponent.
In stacking these teams, Colorado boasts a massive edge at both ends - but primarily on offense. When the Buffaloes have the ball, they should see lots of open looks and put-back opportunities. Colorado has recorded the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 since the conference season started and will be going against an Oregon State defense that ranks last over the same period. The Buffaloes also hold advantages in several other key areas with the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the league during conference play while Oregon State sit second-worst in defensive rebounding. Colorado has recorded the second-highest free-throw attempt rate in the Pac-12 while Oregon State has the worst defensive free-throw attempt rate. And last, but certainly not least, Colorado is making over 52 percent of shots inside the arc against Pac-12 opponents, with Oregon State allowing conference opponents to make 55 percent of two-pointers, the second-worst percentage allowed.
At the other end of the court, Oregon State doesn't fare much better. The Beavers are marginally better on offense at ninth in offensive efficiency in the Pac-12 during conference play, though the Buffaloes are comparatively better on defense at fourth in efficiency. Oregon State's best offensive trait is drawing contact, having posted the third-highest free-throw attempt rate in the conference. But as it turns out, Colorado lists the best defensive free-throw attempt rate in the league, thereby neutralizing the one area where Oregon State excels at scoring points.
The last time these teams clashed, Colorado utterly dominated from the opening tip-off to the final whistle. The Buffaloes were up at halftime by 22 and cruised to a 90-57 result.
The line for this game isn't small, but I'm betting it won't matter when all is said and done. Colorado is the much better team and matches up extremely well against Oregon State. In addition to its talent and match-up advantages, the Buffaloes have a motivational edge. If they want to make the NCAA Tournament, they cannot afford a loss to the worst team in the Pac-12, so they should come out locked in and focused for all 40 minutes. For all these reasons, I'm laying the points with Colorado in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado -8
Baylor 
at Texas Tech
The Bears are heating up, having won eight of their last 11 games and nearly won a ninth against Houston before falling in overtime. Baylor has defeated TCU, Kansas, and Texas during its recent three-game streak, yet these quality wins are nothing new as they also defeated three potential NCAA tournament teams in Auburn, Florida, and Seton Hall.
In contrast, Texas Tech has lost six of 11, with two of the victories coming against the two worst teams in the conference. The Red Raiders played an easy non-conference schedule and yet still stumbled against their only two quality opponents losing 85-69 to Villanova and in OT to Butler.
These sides are incredibly similar in that both are much better on offense as opposed to defense. Baylor lists the highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12 during conference play, but it's 10th in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech has the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the league, yet ranks 11th on defense. That being said, Baylor does one thing particularly well that should make a critical difference in the game - collect boards.
The Bears are the best rebounding team in the Big 12 with the second-highest rebounding percentage on both offense and defense, though it's the former we need to highlight. The Red Raiders are ranked last in the league in defensive rebounding percentage during the conference season, likely leading to a lot of put-back opportunities for Baylor on Saturday.
The first matchup between these sides took place in Waco on Feb. 6, and Baylor emerged victorious by six where they picked up 11 offensive boards compared to six for Texas Tech. Based on how these teams have played recently and throughout the year along with Baylor's massive advantage on the glass, I'm betting the Bears will find a way to win once again. I'm taking Baylor.
College Basketball Best Bet: Baylor +2
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Florida State -3
- Colorado -8
- Baylor +2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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