This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
As Thursday's college basketball slate brings us a much lighter offering, Steve Peralta looks to the West for his best bets of the day.
North Alabama at 
Colorado
Colorado has won five games this season and its average margin of victory is 17 points per game. This includes a 12-point win over Tennessee, a 28-point win over Texas A&M, and, most recently, a 28-point victory against Colorado State. These opponents were no pushovers, and that has been the story for Colorado all season, as the Buffaloes have played the 26th most difficult schedule in the country, including the eighth most difficult list of defensive opponents. And as it turns out, Thursday's opponent, North Alabama, has one of the worst defenses in the country, ranking all the way down at No. 325 in adjusted efficiency. Colorado has already scored 78 points against the number one defense (Tennessee) and 103 points against the No. 90 defense (Texas A&M), so the Buffaloes appear poised for an offensive explosion in this matchup.
North Alabama, on the other hand, has lost four games this season, and all of them have been ugly. The Lions lost each of their last three games by at least eighteen points, with its first loss of the season being an eight-point loss to Mississippi Valley State. The latter might be the worst of them all, as that was the Delta Devils' only victory so far this season, and they are actually ranked next to dead last in KenPom's overall adjusted efficiency standings. You're hard-pressed to find a worse loss by any team all season.
Colorado may have lost its first two conference games this season, but the Buffaloes are still a solid team with a high-potential, as they showed against Tennessee and Texas A&M. This is a big line to cover, but North Alabama has consistently gotten blown out when playing against tougher teams, and now the Lions have to travel to a high altitude in the Rocky Mountains. I like our chances with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Colorado -21.5
UC Irvine at 
Santa Clara
UC Irvine enters Thursday's game with a 7-3 record, including a signature win at Oregon back on November 11. The Anteaters beat the Ducks by a score of 69-56 -- an impressive win any way you look at it. UC Irvine also came within three points of defeating San Diego State on the road, another great performance against a formidable opponent, even if the Anteaters didn't get the victory.
UC Irvine is a balanced team, scoring 79-plus points in six games this season while holding opponents to under 65 points on six occasions as well. UC Irvine has played the 55th-most difficult schedule among all D1 teams, per KenPom, so these offensive and defensive stats are well-earned. Offensively, UC Irvine is exceptional when it comes to long-range shooting. The Anteaters are making over 40 percent of shots from behind the arc, the 10th-highest percentage in the country. It's hard to count out any team that is exceptionally skilled at shooting.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, has a 9-3 record, although its strength of schedule isn't quite as high as UC Irvine's, coming in around the D1 average. The Broncos' best victory came against Iona, a solid accomplishment no doubt, although they haven't really matched that performance in any other game this season. Aside from Iona, Santa Clara has faced two other teams with defensive efficiencies that rank top-80 in the country, and Santa Clara lost both games decisively. UC Irvine's defense checks in at No. 72 in adjusted efficiency, so Santa Clara will once again have its hands full when trying to score.
Overall, UC Irvine is better on both ends of the court, recording superior efficiency ratings over Santa Clara. The Anteaters might be playing on the road, but they won't have to travel too far up the state. I like the sharp-shooting Anteaters in this one. I'll take the road team.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC Irvine +2
Seattle at 
Oregon State
Records can be deceiving. Seattle comes into the game with a 7-1 record but has only played one opponent that ranks top-100 in overall efficiency. The opponent was Washington, and it's the same team that dealt Seattle its only loss of the season. Outside of that game, Seattle beat up on the likes of UC San Diego and Cal State Fullerton before having to play in overtime against a lowly North Dakota squad. Seattle has also padded its record with two wins over D2 opponents, so the Redhawks still have a lot to prove.
In contrast, Oregon State's record stands at 4-6, but the team has already competed in four Quad 1 games, and the Beavers nearly won two of them. Oregon State narrowly lost to Duke by three points back on November 24, and then it lost at USC by a single point just over a week ago. The Beavers might have a losing record, but they've put up a fight in most games, particularly at home. Oregon State is 4-1 at home this season, including a win over Washington at the start of December.
Aside from its tenacity against tougher opponents, Oregon State has a couple of matchup advantages over Seattle. First, Oregon State is outstanding at blocking shots. The Beavers are blocking shots at the 62nd-highest rate among all D1 teams -- an important note because the Redhawks' offense has been prone to having their shots blocked this season, ranking No. 220 in that category. Similarly, Oregon State frequently attacks the rim, generating a significant amount of free-throw attempts. The Beavers rank No. 39 in free-throw attempt rate, again noteworthy because the Redhawks have struggled to play defense without committing fouls, ranking No. 331 in defensive free-throw rate.
Given Seattle's questionable resume and Oregon State's competitive spirit against upper-echelon opponents, I prefer the team that's more battle-tested. If this game were in Seattle, I would probably pass, but since it's not, I'll back the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State +1
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Colorado -21.5
- UC Irvine +2
- Oregon State pk
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