This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
ACC conference play resumes for a couple more teams while inter-conference matchups once again fill the slate. Steve Peralta breaks down the action and offers his best bets of the day.
Louisville at NC State
Louisville is in rough shape, to say the least. The Cardinals are 2-10 entering Thursday's game and have scored over 70 points just two times this season, which makes sense considering they rank No. 313 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Louisville is better on defense and, combined with its offensive ineptitude, has produced low-scoring games all season long. In fact, out of Louisville's 12 games this season, only one game went over 145 combined points.
NC State, meanwhile, comes into this matchup with a respectable 10-3 record and plays a balanced brand of basketball, ranking top-70 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. The Wolfpack have played in six games this season that saw the total hit under 141 points, with most of the exceptions coming against teams with potent offensive attacks such as Kansas, Miami and Furman.
NC State prefers playing at a quicker tempo, so there's always a chance the scoring might escalate, but ultimately I'm betting that Louisville's offensive struggles will continue, leading to another low-scoring game. I'm on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 143.5
Morgan State at 
Arizona
As most college hoops fans know by now, Arizona has distinguished itself as the best scoring team in the country, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings. Its defense is solid, but isn't quite at the same level as its offense. Arizona's games have gone over 159 combined points in seven of 12 games this season, and based on how Thursday's opponent plays, there's a good chance we'll have the eighth game after the day is over.
Much like Arizona, which plays at the seventh-fastest tempo in the country, per KenPom, Morgan State also loves pushing the pace, ranking No. 34 in offensive tempo. In spite of having a low offensive efficiency rating, this quick pace has allowed Morgan State's games to go over 159 combined points in five of 11 games, which is noteworthy considering its offensive inefficiency this season.
Both the spread and the over/under totals are high numbers, but that's what happens whenever Arizona is involved in the game. The Wildcats have already allowed teams like Nicholls State, Southern, and Utah Tech to score 75-plus points against them, so Morgan State has a fair shot at hitting 70. KenPom is projecting Arizona to score 93 points in this matchup, so a high-scoring game is almost inevitable when looking at all the numbers. I'll take the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 158
Missouri vs. 
Illinois
Illinois looked great when it took down UCLA just over a month ago, but the Illini haven't been quite as sharp since entering December. Illinois has lost two of its last four games and arguably should've lost a third against Texas, as KenPom gave the Illini a five percent chance of winning the game with just a minute left before the latter tied it and sent it into overtime. More recently, Illinois got crushed on its own home court by Penn State, losing by 15 points. Penn State is excellent at scoring, and now the Illini have to face another strong offensive team in the form of Missouri.
The Tigers rank No 14. in adjusted offensive efficiency and have scored at least 80 points in every game up until facing its two most recent opponents. Missouri was humbled against Kansas, losing big, but then rebounded by defeating a tough UCF team in Florida. We will soon find out a lot more about Missouri as it faces a challenging series of opponents, starting with Thursday's game against Illinois.
In addition to its great offensive play, Missouri does one other thing exceptionally well that will likely come into play against Illinois -- cause turnovers. The Fighting Illini have been incredibly sloppy on offense this season, ranking No. 281 in offensive turnover rate, and this doesn't bode well for Thursday because the Tigers have the highest defensive steal rate among all D1 teams.
Illinois is certainly a tough team, but it's also proven to be quite vulnerable, especially in recent games. Considering that Missouri is among the best scoring teams in the nation, recording the second-highest effective field goal percentage up to this point, it has a good chance of keeping pace with Illinois. And given the Tigers' defensive ability at causing havoc for opposing teams, they will likely persist throughout the game. I'll take the points and the better offensive team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Missouri +7
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Louisville at NC St. - Under 143.5
- Morgan St. at Arizona - Over 158
- Missouri +7
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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